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Re: Dr. Jack disses Cs potential and PP

At 10:08 PM 2/11/2004, Sean Giovanello wrote:
Well, that still leaves us being outrebounded during that time. I know the minutes dont match up cause Raef was injured but do you know how it would compare between Raef and Walter this year?

Not quite sure what comparison you're looking for, but let me try and tell me if it's not what you want.
The team comparisons are pretty much the same as the ones I gave before, since McCarty's minutes went way up right after Raef went down. And in fact, his average minutes per game went up by about the 19 MPG Raef was getting. So you could make a case that that switch cost us the approximately 4 RPG that was the team total swing after Raef went down.

Comparing them more individually - as you said, the minutes don't really work, so I'm going to start with per 48 minutes stats as the fairest way to compare, misleading as those can be.

Anyway, Raef averaged 11.6 rebounds per 48 minutes during the time he played and Walter is at 6.7 for the season to date, or a bit less than 60% Raef's production. That includes significant improvement by McCarty since Raef went down. He was 5.1 boards per 48 minutes while they were both playing, prior to Dec 15th (when his minutes took the big jump after Raef went down) and about 7 boards per 48 minutes since then.

Looked at another way, during the time Raef was playing, McCarty's pure PG average on the boards was a hair under 1 rebound per game on an average of about 8.5 minutes per game. Raef was averaging about 4.6 rebound per game on 19 minutes per game. That's about 5.6 combined RPG for combined about 29 minutes of play. McCarty's now getting about those minutes alone and since then is averaging more like 4.4 RPG. Much improved production for him, but still less than we were getting from the combined players and almost certainly significantly less than we would see if the reverse was true and Raef was picking up McCarty's minutes. It's also worth noting that McCarty contributes almost nothing on the offensive boards - 15 OReb all year or about 9% of his total output, while Raef got just under 40% of his rebounds on the offensive end.

Of course it really isn't that simple. As you note, the minutes don't match. They really don't play the same game/position, although it's true that clearly Walter absorbed a lot of the minutes Raef left open. While there are other factors like the loss of Baker and the contributions of Mihm affecting the real totals. But yeah, even with improved rebounding on at least one end of the floor from McCarty, that tradeoff clearly contributes to the drop off. Especially on the offensive boards.

Kim


Kim Malo wrote:

At 03:56 PM 2/11/2004, Berry, Mark S wrote:

I'm a Raef fan and a fan of the Antoine trade, but I'll freely admit
that if all we get from Raef is what we got this season, then he'll be
overpaid and have little value around the league. But I think he'll
bring much more to the team than that when he's healthy. Not only will
he be a better player with healthy knees, but he won't be competing with
the early-season Vin Baker for playing time. How valuable would a
healthy Raef be to this team right now? Does anyone think Walter would
be playing 40 mpg if Raef was healthy?


With all the talk we always have about rebounding problems, no one has mentioned some stats that back this up. It's actually something the radio broadcasters regularly discuss in general terms whenever considering Raef's injury and its effect. I've been importing all the boxscores into a database (yes, I've already been told by friends that I'm such a geek. OTOH, the individual and team data's there if anyone else wants any data analysis run - feel free to just ask), and so I ran the numbers to see how true it was. Raef's last game was 12/11. Our average total rebounds per game is down 3.75 since then (total rebounds = team rebounds + assigned off and def boards). The difference isn't team rebounds - those have been almost the same. It's clearly in the individual player stats. And the biggest difference is in the defensive boards - almost 3 per game.

Kim