Re: the kind of players I'm thinking of

[Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

W wrote:

> >   I remember way back when the Knicks had THREE mid-level
> > draft picks in one year.  They held onto them instead
> > of trading, and if I remember correctly drafted
> > McCarty and 2 other duds.
>
> Walter McCarty
> Dontae' Jones
> John Wallace
>
> W

Or consider the Orlando scenario of 1998.

12. Michael Doleac
13. Keon Clark
15. Matt Harpring

The five players that went immediately ahead of Doleac were Jason
Williams, Larry Hughes, "Sprockets" Nowitzki, Paul Pierce and Bonzi
Wells. That's a playoff team right there practically.

At the time, I recall lamenting that the 1998 draft was only 8 or 9
players deep, but luckily for Boston it turned out to be ten deep. The
national Orlando sports pages actually had pencilled in Jason Williams
to be the Magic's 12th or 13th pick, but Sacramento surprised everyone
by "pulling another Bobby Hurley" and taking him at #7. Robert Traylor
was the only thing resembling a bust in a solid top ten.

Boston right now has the rights to the 11th (Denver), 14th and 17th pick
(Suns) I believe.

To look on the bright side for a minute, back in the1996 draft the 17th
pick left you with the choice of Jermaine O'Neil, Jerome Williams,
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Derek Fisher or Walter McCarty (Doh!). The 14th pick
was a good one (Sacramento's Predrag Stojakovic). At 11, one could
choose between Kobe Bryant and Vitaly Potapenko (Doh!)

At the other end of the spectrum, last year's historically lame draft
still offered a decent 14th pick in Mateen Cleaves and 17th pick in
Desmond Mason (with Jake Tsakalidis lasting until #25). Of course the
11th pick in that draft (a French-boy from UCLA) apparently has the
fewest minutes played on his mediocre team, despite enjoying an
injury-free season.

In Pitino's first year, the other widely acknowledged draft wasteland of
recent times, the 11th throught 14th picks featured two defensive
standout guards in Derek Anderson and Tariq Wahad (Olivier St Jean)
along with two big forwards in Austin Croshere and Mo Taylor.

If you look at the overall picture of 11th-17th picks in this decade, it
is clear that Chris Wallace has his work cut out for him and needs to be
putting in long days scouting at the prep, college and international
level. Not to be too dramatic, but in a capped out situation Wallace
kind of holds the key to Boston's future.

It probably depends where they eventually fall, but these three picks
are unfortunately more valuable to actually use than to try to trade for
an impact pick or player. I kind of doubt a bunch of draft picks in the
teens will carry the trade value of a single top-ten pick, especially
with the mediocre Orlando and Knicks drafts as a precedent somewhat
fresh in most GM's minds. A later first round pick in the NBA holds
approximately the same value as maybe a 5th round pick in the NFL draft.



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