Re: Mutombo anyone?

["John Lyell" <johnlyell@hotmail.com>]

I would expect the Clippers to go after him to add some veteran leadership,
and because they won't be able to attract free agents on the market.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Joe Hironaka" <j.hironaka@unesco.org>
To: "Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@worldnet.att.net>; <Celtics@igtc.com>
Sent: Friday, May 12, 2000 10:33 AM
Subject: Re: Mutombo anyone?


> FWIW, I do think Mutombo would be worth trading a draft pick and some top
role
> players for, but not necessarily either of our two top scorers (Pierce and
> Toine). If we trade too much scoring ability to get Mutombo, my fear is
that our
> record won't be any better than Atlanta's over the past few seasons.
>
> IMO, Mutombo would be the sort of player that could help Pitino get the
team FG%
> closer to 43% than 47%, which could make a major difference in the
won-loss
> column over the next year to two years (before he presumably retires or
breaks
> down).
> The Celtics seem to have a lot more scoring punch and turnover/havoc
creating
> skills than Atlanta has had.
>
> Having said this, I'm not a big fan of young teams making short-term
veteran
> acquisitions unless it said trade is enough to make your team a Finals
> contender. The Potapenko-Battie rebounding/shotblocking rotation is far
from
> ideal, but our problems at center IMO simply are overrated compared to
other
> issues. I do think Potapenko can eventually play 80%+ of the league's
centers to
> a standstill at least as well as the centers on the last two championship
> mini-dynasties (Chicago and Detroit). To me the most glaring needs are:
>
> 1) lack of height (6-5) and a consistent scoring deficit at the small
forward
> slot.
> 2) a starting backcourt that does not inspire a "pass first" team
mentality.
> 3) perimeter defense.
>
> Tom and others have noted the problem with perimeter defense and, on this
> subject, I agree from watching tapes that Antoine and Pierce don't really
fight
> through picks or even try to (why, I don't know).
>
> And yet for me, at least, the problem of Boston's perimeter "matador"
defense is
> not really a lack of athleticism, effort or veteran saavy.
>
> The analogy I would make is how even slow, immobile american football
> quarterbacks can casually step forward in the pocket to avoid a pass
rusher
> trying to take his head off. It is not so different in basketball when a
> defender arrives late. On television it may look like the defender is
right on
> time (because your eyes are following the movement of the ball rather than
the
> defender). But in fact the defender is often carrying too much momentum
going
> forward to be able to stop a dribble drive attempt to the hoop even from a
slow,
> weak player. Ron Mercer was actually a master at taking advantage of an
extra
> halfstep to drive all the way to the rim (but he was and remains hopeless
as a
> straight one-on-one player, unlike Pierce).
>
> Pitino argues that his players done "challenge" enough shots and it is
true
> enough. But I would argue that if they lunged out to challenge more shots,
> they'd risk get even more burned off the dribble penetration. Every player
at
> every level of basketball is aware of the risk of challenging shots when
you've
> arrived late and don't have your feet set. A smart offensive player will
drive
> right around you like your a lead-footed retard. It is infinitely more
> preferable to have them shoot a mildly uncontested three pointer in your
face,
> something every scrub in the NBA seemed to do last year against Boston.
>
> So when we start parcelling out blame for the Celtics atrocious defense
last
> year (28th in the league), you can fall back on the easy answers (we
desperately
> need a shotblocker, boo hoo) but to me it all (or mostly) comes down to
the
> Pitino defensive "system" at the NBA level.
>
> If some of you still have game tapes from last season and you follow the
> movements, headless chicken style, of your choice of hapless Celts
defender, you
> will notice two things IMO. One is a surprising level of good faith
intensity
> and hustle compared to your expectations (although you also see
discouragement
> in the players from time to time). The second is that it is not uncommon
at all
> to see Antoine or Pierce guarding three different opponents AFTER the ball
has
> crossed midcourt. I've seen some atrocious pointguard on center defensive
> mismatches, thanks presumably to the Pitino system.  ou can't always blame
> Pierce ane Walker for playing bad defense. You should also blame them for
being
> dumb/innocent enough to play a bad (or failed) defensive system in good
faith.
>
> To describe it another way, how many times per game or season have you
honestly
> seen an NBA opponent catch the ball, casually face up Antoine or Pierce
until
> they have their feet fully set defensively, and THEN try to go one-on-one
and
> break them down off the dribble? Other than the Tim Hardaway debacle two
years
> ago, this simply rarely happens.
>
> By contrast, Antoine is one of the few NBA players who actually does this
(or
> tries to) regularly. When Walker starts his between the legs dribble weave
thing
> way out in three-point land, he's telling the defender "get ready, here I
come".
> And yet he almost always dusts the defender these days (only to get
crunched by
> help defense once he arrives at the basket).
>
> As noted, Antoine's assists, rebounds and steals stats not only were team
highs
> over the final two months but they were as good as any all-around forward
in the
> NBA. The kid averaged over 6 assists per game over the entire month of
March,
> and over 5 per game in April. The thing is that Antoine doesn't just pitch
the
> ball out of the paint. He is a MUCH stronger dribbler than all-around
rivals
> like Kevin Garnett, Chris Webber and the like. Walker is a stunning
dribbler in
> terms of the power, cadence and control.
>
> I just wish he wasn't such a crappy finisher....so far he's nowhere near
on par
> with other 20ppg scorers in the NBA.
>
> That's why so many people still look at his 20ppg and think "big deal, he
might
> not even deserve consideration as one of the top 75 players in the NBA."
Well if
> Toine gets his midrange game and decision-making better, and shows he can
shoot
> over 82 games like he did over the last two months of this past season
(.495FG%
> on two-pointers) I still believe he will leapfrog over 70 of those players
ahead
> of him into an elite MVP caliber role. Potential five tool players don't
grow on
> trees. Even the Vince Carters and Karl Malones of the world don't have
anywhere
> near the range of skills Walker seemingly has had since birth but so far
can't
> seem to polish.
>
> ********
>
> Thomas Murphy wrote:
>
> > We've all heard by now the rumor of Mutombo to Detroit for Laettner and
> > Lindsay Hunter. I suspect we're hearing about this because negotiations
have
> > broken down, not because the deal is going to be made (after all, would
you
> > make this deal if you were Atlanta?) In other words, it's an invitation
to
> > start the bidding.
> >
> > Quickly looking over the Atlanta roster, I noticed that given their
number
> > of free agents that Atlanta could be under the cap. If one excludes
Mutombo
> > then they are well under the cap. In other words, they will be able to
take
> > some BYC players in exchange for Mutombo if they refrain from re-signing
the
> > immortal Bimbo Coles, the ever-injured Laphonso Ellis, Anthony Johnson
> > (who?), Drew Barry. (Adding up this year's salaries of the remaining
players
> > yields roughly 18 mil with Mutombo making another 12.8 mil).
> >
> > I also noticed that Atlanta has already got a combined $87 million
committed
> > to Alan Henderson and Lorenzen Wright, two players that will be
difficult to
> > move. My guess is that they will look to move Mutombo to shore up their
> > deficiencies at PG (where Terry may have promise but is painfully
> > inexperienced at the present) and SF (since Jimmy Jackson seems to have
> > found a home at SG). Hence Laettner and Hunter does not make sense
whereas
> > Stackhouse and Hunter would, because the Hawks already have over $80 mil
> > invested at C and PF. If this year proved anything it was that if
Lorenzen
> > Wright is ever going to produce he needs consistent and heavy minutes.
> >
> > So if the Celts want to get involved in the Mutombo sweepstakes the
> > following deal seems the most obvious: Kenny Anderson and Antoine Walker
for
> > Dikembe Mutombo straight up. From what I can gather the numbers are not
a
> > problem - using this year's salaries as a gauge Atlanta should be able
to
> > fit the two players under their cap and Mutombo's salary is just enough
less
> > than KA and AW combined to allow us to compensate for AW's BYC problem
> >
> > (DM 12.8 mil in exchange for KA 6.7 mil + AW 9 mil; 12.8 mil for 15.7
mil
> > with a difference of 2.9 mil = OK for Atlanta since it will be 3-5 mil
under
> > cap; OK for Boston since the difference of 4.5 (AW BYC) only allows us
to
> > accept back 11.2 mil + 15% (which = 1.68 mil) 11.2 + 1.68 = 12.8 mil -
i.e.,
> > Mutombo's salary. Voila! Note also that I've used the 50% BYC figure -
the
> > deal actually gets easier after AW is considered to be in his 2nd year
of
> > his new deal - which I imagine will happen some time this summer).
> >
> > Kenny played college ball at Georgia Tech and so that may help sell some
> > tix; in addition it seems clear that Kenny would benefit from a change
of
> > scenery and that Pitino would be only to glad to assist him in that.
Kenny
> > is coming off a relatively good year, if we ignore the fact that the
offense
> > was basically taken away from him and handed to Antoine. Kenny would
provide
> > veteran stability at the point (don't laugh now, this is Atlanta's
> > perspective and after a year of Bimbo Coles this statement might not
sound
> > so dopey) and allow Jason Terry to mature gradually, particularly since
> > Kenny could use a back-up who can log minutes.
> >
> > Walker is the key to the deal, because he has shown such potential but
there
> > remain questions about whether that potential will ever be fully
realized.
> > My guess is that if the potential is to be fully realized it will be
away
> > from Boston and more importantly away from Pitino. Atlanta would have to
be
> > figuring this way; also they would have to be figuring that they can
play
> > Antoine at SF without any dire defensive consequences.
> >
> > On the other hand Boston could offer Kenny, Pierce and some cap luggage
> > (Eric Williams, Tony Battie, Waltah McDuh?). Pierce is more of a natural
SF.
> > Yet Atlanta might want the flexibility that Antoine offers, since he
could
> > slide over to PF and allow Chris Crawford to sub in at SF for 25 minutes
a
> > game. And from what I recall, Atlanta has constructed its teams in the
past
> > with basically 5 starters and a bunch of relatively inexpensive stiffs.
> > Would they be interested in paying another couple of players a ton of
cash
> > knowing that they will be basically redundant? Do they want to risk
losing
> > PP to free agency for nothing (like Rider)? Maybe, maybe not. There
would be
> > no such risks with Antoine, since he is locked up long term. Also we
have to
> > take into consideration Atlanta's other players. Atlanta at this point
is
> > looking to get younger and increase their potential but not so young
that
> > they will miss their "window of opportunity" as far as their new core of
> > Kenny Anderson (30 yrs) Jimmy Jackson (30 next season) and Henderson (28
yrs
> > next season) are concerned. Antoine (25) is two years older than Pierce
(23)
> > and appeared at times this year to be on the cusp of breaking out. For
all
> > these reasons I would expect Atlanta to prefer Antoine rather than
"Pierce &
> > Co." combo. I think this makes more sense for Boston as well (assuming
that
> > Fortson, Battie, Vitaly and Mutombo are on board), but then it might all
> > just boil down to who you like better, Antoine or Paul. For the sake of
> > simplicity I'll just assume Pitino prefers Paul to Antoine.
> >
> > Why would Boston do this? Well there is of course Pitino's need to "lead
to
> > success" before he bolts town. Mutombo represents probably the best
> > opportunity for returning to the playoffs in the short term (i.e. next
year)
> > as Pitino is likely to get. Boston sheds its two worst defenders but
also
> > two of its three key offensive options. Plus, will whoever replaces
Antoine
> > and Kenny be better on defense? Boston does gets a key defender in
Mutombo,
> > and maybe that alone will make the replacements better defenders, but
the
> > question remains - who is going to put the ball in the hoop?
> >
> > My guess is that Barros enters the starting line-up now that Mutombo is
> > there to cover for him (after all, Pitino doesn't really use the point
to
> > trigger offense anyway). Also Fortson is retained since his liabilities
at
> > PF are now minimized by Mutombo's defensive presence. Pitino gambles
that
> > Adrian Griffin makes a full recovery and can allow Paul Pierce to focus
on
> > offense - indeed, I wouldn't be surprised to see Pitino running the
offense
> > through Paul like Toronto runs it through Vince Carter. Whether this
scheme
> > is as successful is another matter. Vitaly, Battie, Eric Williams,
Cheaney,
> > and "Tall Rookie" PG make up the second unit that, as usual, will log
> > heavier minutes than most fans would be comfortable seeing. This team
will
> > be relatively slow and will rely heavily on rebounding for put-backs and
to
> > trigger fast-breaks but on the plus side its personnel should give it an
> > automatic rebounding advantage virtually every night.
> >
> > Cap-wise, we shed our two biggest contracts, but we take on one contract
> > that is almost as big and Mutombo is a FA after this coming season. Also
> > Mutombo will be 34 by the start of next season whereas Kenny will be 30
and
> > Antoine only 25. However, since Mutombo plays center we can reasonably
> > expect that he can continue to play in this league at least another 5
years,
> > particularly with Vitaly there to give him 20-25 minutes of relief a
night.
> >
> > Another consideration is that we ARE talking about the eastern
conference so
> > one key trade (Latrell Sprewell) could land you in the finals. Plus
Mutombo
> > might just provide the veteran presence (as long as we don't sign
Rider!!)
> > to allow our relatively young core (Adrian - 26 yrs, Vitaly - 25 yrs,
> > Fortson - 24 yrs, Battie - 24 yrs, Pierce - 23 yrs, "tall rookie PG") to
> > mature and perfect their professionalism, particularly if they can get a
> > taste of the playoffs.
> >
> > If your were Chris Wallace, would you do it - OK, OK, if you were Chris
> > Wallace it wouldn't be your call.
> >
> > As a fan then, what would you think? As for myself, I am typically leery
of
> > trading youth for experience, but as long as no picks are involved this
> > might be just the trade to balance out our deficiencies in terms of
> > experience and defensive ability.
> >
> > Best wishes - TomM
>
>