Re: Mutombo anyone?

[Joe Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

FWIW, I do think Mutombo would be worth trading a draft pick and some top role
players for, but not necessarily either of our two top scorers (Pierce and
Toine). If we trade too much scoring ability to get Mutombo, my fear is that our
record won't be any better than Atlanta's over the past few seasons.

IMO, Mutombo would be the sort of player that could help Pitino get the team FG%
closer to 43% than 47%, which could make a major difference in the won-loss
column over the next year to two years (before he presumably retires or breaks
down).
The Celtics seem to have a lot more scoring punch and turnover/havoc creating
skills than Atlanta has had.

Having said this, I'm not a big fan of young teams making short-term veteran
acquisitions unless it said trade is enough to make your team a Finals
contender. The Potapenko-Battie rebounding/shotblocking rotation is far from
ideal, but our problems at center IMO simply are overrated compared to other
issues. I do think Potapenko can eventually play 80%+ of the league's centers to
a standstill at least as well as the centers on the last two championship
mini-dynasties (Chicago and Detroit). To me the most glaring needs are:

1) lack of height (6-5) and a consistent scoring deficit at the small forward
slot.
2) a starting backcourt that does not inspire a "pass first" team mentality.
3) perimeter defense.

Tom and others have noted the problem with perimeter defense and, on this
subject, I agree from watching tapes that Antoine and Pierce don't really fight
through picks or even try to (why, I don't know).

And yet for me, at least, the problem of Boston's perimeter "matador" defense is
not really a lack of athleticism, effort or veteran saavy.

The analogy I would make is how even slow, immobile american football
quarterbacks can casually step forward in the pocket to avoid a pass rusher
trying to take his head off. It is not so different in basketball when a
defender arrives late. On television it may look like the defender is right on
time (because your eyes are following the movement of the ball rather than the
defender). But in fact the defender is often carrying too much momentum going
forward to be able to stop a dribble drive attempt to the hoop even from a slow,
weak player. Ron Mercer was actually a master at taking advantage of an extra
halfstep to drive all the way to the rim (but he was and remains hopeless as a
straight one-on-one player, unlike Pierce).

Pitino argues that his players done "challenge" enough shots and it is true
enough. But I would argue that if they lunged out to challenge more shots,
they'd risk get even more burned off the dribble penetration. Every player at
every level of basketball is aware of the risk of challenging shots when you've
arrived late and don't have your feet set. A smart offensive player will drive
right around you like your a lead-footed retard. It is infinitely more
preferable to have them shoot a mildly uncontested three pointer in your face,
something every scrub in the NBA seemed to do last year against Boston.

So when we start parcelling out blame for the Celtics atrocious defense last
year (28th in the league), you can fall back on the easy answers (we desperately
need a shotblocker, boo hoo) but to me it all (or mostly) comes down to the
Pitino defensive "system" at the NBA level.

If some of you still have game tapes from last season and you follow the
movements, headless chicken style, of your choice of hapless Celts defender, you
will notice two things IMO. One is a surprising level of good faith intensity
and hustle compared to your expectations (although you also see discouragement
in the players from time to time). The second is that it is not uncommon at all
to see Antoine or Pierce guarding three different opponents AFTER the ball has
crossed midcourt. I've seen some atrocious pointguard on center defensive
mismatches, thanks presumably to the Pitino system.  ou can't always blame
Pierce ane Walker for playing bad defense. You should also blame them for being
dumb/innocent enough to play a bad (or failed) defensive system in good faith.

To describe it another way, how many times per game or season have you honestly
seen an NBA opponent catch the ball, casually face up Antoine or Pierce until
they have their feet fully set defensively, and THEN try to go one-on-one and
break them down off the dribble? Other than the Tim Hardaway debacle two years
ago, this simply rarely happens.

By contrast, Antoine is one of the few NBA players who actually does this (or
tries to) regularly. When Walker starts his between the legs dribble weave thing
way out in three-point land, he's telling the defender "get ready, here I come".
And yet he almost always dusts the defender these days (only to get crunched by
help defense once he arrives at the basket).

As noted, Antoine's assists, rebounds and steals stats not only were team highs
over the final two months but they were as good as any all-around forward in the
NBA. The kid averaged over 6 assists per game over the entire month of March,
and over 5 per game in April. The thing is that Antoine doesn't just pitch the
ball out of the paint. He is a MUCH stronger dribbler than all-around rivals
like Kevin Garnett, Chris Webber and the like. Walker is a stunning dribbler in
terms of the power, cadence and control.

I just wish he wasn't such a crappy finisher....so far he's nowhere near on par
with other 20ppg scorers in the NBA.

That's why so many people still look at his 20ppg and think "big deal, he might
not even deserve consideration as one of the top 75 players in the NBA." Well if
Toine gets his midrange game and decision-making better, and shows he can shoot
over 82 games like he did over the last two months of this past season (.495FG%
on two-pointers) I still believe he will leapfrog over 70 of those players ahead
of him into an elite MVP caliber role. Potential five tool players don't grow on
trees. Even the Vince Carters and Karl Malones of the world don't have anywhere
near the range of skills Walker seemingly has had since birth but so far can't
seem to polish.

********

Thomas Murphy wrote:

> We've all heard by now the rumor of Mutombo to Detroit for Laettner and
> Lindsay Hunter. I suspect we're hearing about this because negotiations have
> broken down, not because the deal is going to be made (after all, would you
> make this deal if you were Atlanta?) In other words, it's an invitation to
> start the bidding.
>
> Quickly looking over the Atlanta roster, I noticed that given their number
> of free agents that Atlanta could be under the cap. If one excludes Mutombo
> then they are well under the cap. In other words, they will be able to take
> some BYC players in exchange for Mutombo if they refrain from re-signing the
> immortal Bimbo Coles, the ever-injured Laphonso Ellis, Anthony Johnson
> (who?), Drew Barry. (Adding up this year's salaries of the remaining players
> yields roughly 18 mil with Mutombo making another 12.8 mil).
>
> I also noticed that Atlanta has already got a combined $87 million committed
> to Alan Henderson and Lorenzen Wright, two players that will be difficult to
> move. My guess is that they will look to move Mutombo to shore up their
> deficiencies at PG (where Terry may have promise but is painfully
> inexperienced at the present) and SF (since Jimmy Jackson seems to have
> found a home at SG). Hence Laettner and Hunter does not make sense whereas
> Stackhouse and Hunter would, because the Hawks already have over $80 mil
> invested at C and PF. If this year proved anything it was that if Lorenzen
> Wright is ever going to produce he needs consistent and heavy minutes.
>
> So if the Celts want to get involved in the Mutombo sweepstakes the
> following deal seems the most obvious: Kenny Anderson and Antoine Walker for
> Dikembe Mutombo straight up. From what I can gather the numbers are not a
> problem - using this year's salaries as a gauge Atlanta should be able to
> fit the two players under their cap and Mutombo's salary is just enough less
> than KA and AW combined to allow us to compensate for AW's BYC problem
>
> (DM 12.8 mil in exchange for KA 6.7 mil + AW 9 mil; 12.8 mil for 15.7 mil
> with a difference of 2.9 mil = OK for Atlanta since it will be 3-5 mil under
> cap; OK for Boston since the difference of 4.5 (AW BYC) only allows us to
> accept back 11.2 mil + 15% (which = 1.68 mil) 11.2 + 1.68 = 12.8 mil - i.e.,
> Mutombo's salary. Voila! Note also that I've used the 50% BYC figure - the
> deal actually gets easier after AW is considered to be in his 2nd year of
> his new deal - which I imagine will happen some time this summer).
>
> Kenny played college ball at Georgia Tech and so that may help sell some
> tix; in addition it seems clear that Kenny would benefit from a change of
> scenery and that Pitino would be only to glad to assist him in that. Kenny
> is coming off a relatively good year, if we ignore the fact that the offense
> was basically taken away from him and handed to Antoine. Kenny would provide
> veteran stability at the point (don't laugh now, this is Atlanta's
> perspective and after a year of Bimbo Coles this statement might not sound
> so dopey) and allow Jason Terry to mature gradually, particularly since
> Kenny could use a back-up who can log minutes.
>
> Walker is the key to the deal, because he has shown such potential but there
> remain questions about whether that potential will ever be fully realized.
> My guess is that if the potential is to be fully realized it will be away
> from Boston and more importantly away from Pitino. Atlanta would have to be
> figuring this way; also they would have to be figuring that they can play
> Antoine at SF without any dire defensive consequences.
>
> On the other hand Boston could offer Kenny, Pierce and some cap luggage
> (Eric Williams, Tony Battie, Waltah McDuh?). Pierce is more of a natural SF.
> Yet Atlanta might want the flexibility that Antoine offers, since he could
> slide over to PF and allow Chris Crawford to sub in at SF for 25 minutes a
> game. And from what I recall, Atlanta has constructed its teams in the past
> with basically 5 starters and a bunch of relatively inexpensive stiffs.
> Would they be interested in paying another couple of players a ton of cash
> knowing that they will be basically redundant? Do they want to risk losing
> PP to free agency for nothing (like Rider)? Maybe, maybe not. There would be
> no such risks with Antoine, since he is locked up long term. Also we have to
> take into consideration Atlanta's other players. Atlanta at this point is
> looking to get younger and increase their potential but not so young that
> they will miss their "window of opportunity" as far as their new core of
> Kenny Anderson (30 yrs) Jimmy Jackson (30 next season) and Henderson (28 yrs
> next season) are concerned. Antoine (25) is two years older than Pierce (23)
> and appeared at times this year to be on the cusp of breaking out. For all
> these reasons I would expect Atlanta to prefer Antoine rather than "Pierce &
> Co." combo. I think this makes more sense for Boston as well (assuming that
> Fortson, Battie, Vitaly and Mutombo are on board), but then it might all
> just boil down to who you like better, Antoine or Paul. For the sake of
> simplicity I'll just assume Pitino prefers Paul to Antoine.
>
> Why would Boston do this? Well there is of course Pitino's need to "lead to
> success" before he bolts town. Mutombo represents probably the best
> opportunity for returning to the playoffs in the short term (i.e. next year)
> as Pitino is likely to get. Boston sheds its two worst defenders but also
> two of its three key offensive options. Plus, will whoever replaces Antoine
> and Kenny be better on defense? Boston does gets a key defender in Mutombo,
> and maybe that alone will make the replacements better defenders, but the
> question remains - who is going to put the ball in the hoop?
>
> My guess is that Barros enters the starting line-up now that Mutombo is
> there to cover for him (after all, Pitino doesn't really use the point to
> trigger offense anyway). Also Fortson is retained since his liabilities at
> PF are now minimized by Mutombo's defensive presence. Pitino gambles that
> Adrian Griffin makes a full recovery and can allow Paul Pierce to focus on
> offense - indeed, I wouldn't be surprised to see Pitino running the offense
> through Paul like Toronto runs it through Vince Carter. Whether this scheme
> is as successful is another matter. Vitaly, Battie, Eric Williams, Cheaney,
> and "Tall Rookie" PG make up the second unit that, as usual, will log
> heavier minutes than most fans would be comfortable seeing. This team will
> be relatively slow and will rely heavily on rebounding for put-backs and to
> trigger fast-breaks but on the plus side its personnel should give it an
> automatic rebounding advantage virtually every night.
>
> Cap-wise, we shed our two biggest contracts, but we take on one contract
> that is almost as big and Mutombo is a FA after this coming season. Also
> Mutombo will be 34 by the start of next season whereas Kenny will be 30 and
> Antoine only 25. However, since Mutombo plays center we can reasonably
> expect that he can continue to play in this league at least another 5 years,
> particularly with Vitaly there to give him 20-25 minutes of relief a night.
>
> Another consideration is that we ARE talking about the eastern conference so
> one key trade (Latrell Sprewell) could land you in the finals. Plus Mutombo
> might just provide the veteran presence (as long as we don't sign Rider!!)
> to allow our relatively young core (Adrian - 26 yrs, Vitaly - 25 yrs,
> Fortson - 24 yrs, Battie - 24 yrs, Pierce - 23 yrs, "tall rookie PG") to
> mature and perfect their professionalism, particularly if they can get a
> taste of the playoffs.
>
> If your were Chris Wallace, would you do it - OK, OK, if you were Chris
> Wallace it wouldn't be your call.
>
> As a fan then, what would you think? As for myself, I am typically leery of
> trading youth for experience, but as long as no picks are involved this
> might be just the trade to balance out our deficiencies in terms of
> experience and defensive ability.
>
> Best wishes - TomM