Mutombo anyone?

["Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@worldnet.att.net>]

We've all heard by now the rumor of Mutombo to Detroit for Laettner and
Lindsay Hunter. I suspect we're hearing about this because negotiations have
broken down, not because the deal is going to be made (after all, would you
make this deal if you were Atlanta?) In other words, it's an invitation to
start the bidding.

Quickly looking over the Atlanta roster, I noticed that given their number
of free agents that Atlanta could be under the cap. If one excludes Mutombo
then they are well under the cap. In other words, they will be able to take
some BYC players in exchange for Mutombo if they refrain from re-signing the
immortal Bimbo Coles, the ever-injured Laphonso Ellis, Anthony Johnson
(who?), Drew Barry. (Adding up this year's salaries of the remaining players
yields roughly 18 mil with Mutombo making another 12.8 mil).

I also noticed that Atlanta has already got a combined $87 million committed
to Alan Henderson and Lorenzen Wright, two players that will be difficult to
move. My guess is that they will look to move Mutombo to shore up their
deficiencies at PG (where Terry may have promise but is painfully
inexperienced at the present) and SF (since Jimmy Jackson seems to have
found a home at SG). Hence Laettner and Hunter does not make sense whereas
Stackhouse and Hunter would, because the Hawks already have over $80 mil
invested at C and PF. If this year proved anything it was that if Lorenzen
Wright is ever going to produce he needs consistent and heavy minutes.

So if the Celts want to get involved in the Mutombo sweepstakes the
following deal seems the most obvious: Kenny Anderson and Antoine Walker for
Dikembe Mutombo straight up. From what I can gather the numbers are not a
problem - using this year's salaries as a gauge Atlanta should be able to
fit the two players under their cap and Mutombo's salary is just enough less
than KA and AW combined to allow us to compensate for AW's BYC problem

(DM 12.8 mil in exchange for KA 6.7 mil + AW 9 mil; 12.8 mil for 15.7 mil
with a difference of 2.9 mil = OK for Atlanta since it will be 3-5 mil under
cap; OK for Boston since the difference of 4.5 (AW BYC) only allows us to
accept back 11.2 mil + 15% (which = 1.68 mil) 11.2 + 1.68 = 12.8 mil - i.e.,
Mutombo's salary. Voila! Note also that I've used the 50% BYC figure - the
deal actually gets easier after AW is considered to be in his 2nd year of
his new deal - which I imagine will happen some time this summer).

Kenny played college ball at Georgia Tech and so that may help sell some
tix; in addition it seems clear that Kenny would benefit from a change of
scenery and that Pitino would be only to glad to assist him in that. Kenny
is coming off a relatively good year, if we ignore the fact that the offense
was basically taken away from him and handed to Antoine. Kenny would provide
veteran stability at the point (don't laugh now, this is Atlanta's
perspective and after a year of Bimbo Coles this statement might not sound
so dopey) and allow Jason Terry to mature gradually, particularly since
Kenny could use a back-up who can log minutes.

Walker is the key to the deal, because he has shown such potential but there
remain questions about whether that potential will ever be fully realized.
My guess is that if the potential is to be fully realized it will be away
from Boston and more importantly away from Pitino. Atlanta would have to be
figuring this way; also they would have to be figuring that they can play
Antoine at SF without any dire defensive consequences.

On the other hand Boston could offer Kenny, Pierce and some cap luggage
(Eric Williams, Tony Battie, Waltah McDuh?). Pierce is more of a natural SF.
Yet Atlanta might want the flexibility that Antoine offers, since he could
slide over to PF and allow Chris Crawford to sub in at SF for 25 minutes a
game. And from what I recall, Atlanta has constructed its teams in the past
with basically 5 starters and a bunch of relatively inexpensive stiffs.
Would they be interested in paying another couple of players a ton of cash
knowing that they will be basically redundant? Do they want to risk losing
PP to free agency for nothing (like Rider)? Maybe, maybe not. There would be
no such risks with Antoine, since he is locked up long term. Also we have to
take into consideration Atlanta's other players. Atlanta at this point is
looking to get younger and increase their potential but not so young that
they will miss their "window of opportunity" as far as their new core of
Kenny Anderson (30 yrs) Jimmy Jackson (30 next season) and Henderson (28 yrs
next season) are concerned. Antoine (25) is two years older than Pierce (23)
and appeared at times this year to be on the cusp of breaking out. For all
these reasons I would expect Atlanta to prefer Antoine rather than "Pierce &
Co." combo. I think this makes more sense for Boston as well (assuming that
Fortson, Battie, Vitaly and Mutombo are on board), but then it might all
just boil down to who you like better, Antoine or Paul. For the sake of
simplicity I'll just assume Pitino prefers Paul to Antoine.

Why would Boston do this? Well there is of course Pitino's need to "lead to
success" before he bolts town. Mutombo represents probably the best
opportunity for returning to the playoffs in the short term (i.e. next year)
as Pitino is likely to get. Boston sheds its two worst defenders but also
two of its three key offensive options. Plus, will whoever replaces Antoine
and Kenny be better on defense? Boston does gets a key defender in Mutombo,
and maybe that alone will make the replacements better defenders, but the
question remains - who is going to put the ball in the hoop?

My guess is that Barros enters the starting line-up now that Mutombo is
there to cover for him (after all, Pitino doesn't really use the point to
trigger offense anyway). Also Fortson is retained since his liabilities at
PF are now minimized by Mutombo's defensive presence. Pitino gambles that
Adrian Griffin makes a full recovery and can allow Paul Pierce to focus on
offense - indeed, I wouldn't be surprised to see Pitino running the offense
through Paul like Toronto runs it through Vince Carter. Whether this scheme
is as successful is another matter. Vitaly, Battie, Eric Williams, Cheaney,
and "Tall Rookie" PG make up the second unit that, as usual, will log
heavier minutes than most fans would be comfortable seeing. This team will
be relatively slow and will rely heavily on rebounding for put-backs and to
trigger fast-breaks but on the plus side its personnel should give it an
automatic rebounding advantage virtually every night.

Cap-wise, we shed our two biggest contracts, but we take on one contract
that is almost as big and Mutombo is a FA after this coming season. Also
Mutombo will be 34 by the start of next season whereas Kenny will be 30 and
Antoine only 25. However, since Mutombo plays center we can reasonably
expect that he can continue to play in this league at least another 5 years,
particularly with Vitaly there to give him 20-25 minutes of relief a night.

Another consideration is that we ARE talking about the eastern conference so
one key trade (Latrell Sprewell) could land you in the finals. Plus Mutombo
might just provide the veteran presence (as long as we don't sign Rider!!)
to allow our relatively young core (Adrian - 26 yrs, Vitaly - 25 yrs,
Fortson - 24 yrs, Battie - 24 yrs, Pierce - 23 yrs, "tall rookie PG") to
mature and perfect their professionalism, particularly if they can get a
taste of the playoffs.

If your were Chris Wallace, would you do it - OK, OK, if you were Chris
Wallace it wouldn't be your call.

As a fan then, what would you think? As for myself, I am typically leery of
trading youth for experience, but as long as no picks are involved this
might be just the trade to balance out our deficiencies in terms of
experience and defensive ability.

Best wishes - TomM