Re: playoffs?

[Mark Piotrowski <markp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

On Mar 1, 2004, at 2:41 PM, Ellie Cutler wrote:

> It's not about missing a slight chance at a top 3 pick -- it's about 
> the
> difference between a #14 pick and a #6 pick.  That's a big enough
> difference to warrant missing out on a (losing) playoff experience.

Maybe -- but is the glass half full or half empty?  couldn't you put 
this a different way?

2002 -- instead of Nikoloz Tskitishvili (#5) or DaJuan Wagner (6) you 
get Jiri Welsch (16)
2001 -- instead of Eddie Griffin (7) you get Troy Murphy (14)
2000 -- instead of DerMarr Johnson (6) you get Hidyet Turkoglu (16) or 
Desmond Mason (17)
1999 -- instead of Jonathan Bender (5) you get Ron Artest (16)
1998 -- instead of Robert Traylor (6) you get Rasho Nesterovic (17)

my point is even if we get the 5th, 6th or 7th pick there is no 
guarantee that you can't get a better player further down  -- the key 
is drafting well wherever you pick AND a bit of luck (see DerMarr 
Johnson).  The 96 draft was a different time -- only KG had jumped from 
HS (Kobe was 96), and very the only international players were picked 
usually in the mid-to-late 1st round.  The draft is so much less 
predictable these days i think b/c you're top 5-6 players may or may 
not turn out to be players at all (see Tyson Chandler, Darius Miles, 
Stro Swift).

But with making the playoffs you are guaranteed some post-season 
experience and something to build on for next season.  However with 
this team it could hurt b/c it might keep Carroll around -- though i 
think Ainge learned his lesson from keeping O'Brien around, Carroll's 
gone IMO unless he makes it to the finals.

Our sample size is still too small with Ainge's picks, but i'm hoping 
that even the 16, 23 and 26 picks would produce legit NBA talents.

Don't get me wrong -- if we end up in the lottery after playing hard, i 
won't give back the pick, but the season is still going on and the 
playoffs should be the goal.  I was reminded of this after watching the 
final game of the Indy upset last year this weekend on tape.  How 
exciting was that?  Don't think we couldn't surprise a team like 
Detroit?  Or win a series (finally) vs. NJ if Kidd's knee keeps acting 
up?

(the other) mark