RE: Juwan Howard?

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I like Mihm, but he can't stay on the floor and he's a free agent after
the season (team option). More importantly, it's clear now that Ainge
doesn't see him as part of the long-range plan. He's a center, and Ainge
clearly values Blount and Kendrick more than he values Mihm. So he's
using him as trade bait. At any rate, it's awfully hard to argue that
Mihm is a better player than Howard.

I think everyone (me included) has a negative impression of Juwan Howard
because he was so grossly overpaid under his last contract. He became
the poster child for bad contracts. He's not making $17 million a year
anymore. He's under contract for $5 mill a year. He was the hottest
mid-level free agent last offseason, and, according to Chad Ford,
several teams are chasing him right now. He's not the missing piece for
anyone, but he's a contributing piece.

Ainge isn't trying to become the youngest team in the league. He's
trying to stockpile assets. Talented players who help the team win in
the short term but also have trade value in the long-term. Ricky Davis
and Juwan Howard qualify because they're talented players, they can help
the team win while they're here, but they have reasonable contracts that
make them tradeable down the line. The Celtics don't have a lot of those
guys. Their tradeable assets have been expiring contracts (Eric
Williams, Chris Mills, etc.). They needed tradeable PLAYERS. Ainge is
getting them. Put Juwan Howard on the market, and the offers that come
in will be much better than if you put Brandon Hunter on the market.

Ainge's ultimate model is Sacramento, but the model for his rebuilding
strategy is Detroit. The Pistons added contributing players wherever
they could. They took advantage of every asset, including expiring
contracts, to add to the team. They didn't force-feed young players.
They didn't strip it bare and start over. They remained competitive
while doing it, and now they're in position to make some big moves. Fans
never get excited about guys like Juwan Howard or Cliff Robinson (a
comparable acquisition when Detroit picked him up a few years ago), but
guys like that are important.

There are two keys to making this work next season: 1. Find a point
guard. Maybe Marcus Banks makes a leap before his second season. Many
point guards do. If not, Ainge has to find a better answer. Maybe that's
Brent Barry with the mid-level exception. 2. Find a coach who can do
with Pierce what Rick Carlisle did with Jerry Stackhouse a few years
ago. If you remember, the Pistons were a lot like the Celtics -- they
went to Stackhouse every time and he averaged a lot of points, shot a
lousy percentage and turned the ball over a lot. Carlisle convinced
Stackhouse to sacrifice some shots and individual stats for the sake of
the team, and it worked. That's when the Pistons surprised everyone and
won 50 games. The Celtics can make the same kind of move, but everyone
has to be on board -- especially Pierce.

Mark



-----Original Message-----
From: Josh Ozersky [mailto:jozersky@xxxxxxxxxx] 
Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 12:16 PM
To: Berry, Mark S; celtics list
Subject: Re: Juwan Howard?

I'd still much rather have Mihm, and wouldn't trade him
even up for Howard, much less add in a huge sweetener
like Mills.  Mihm can rebound and block shots, and is an
effective enough scorer with room to improve.  Howard
is a defensive sieve and overpaid too.  This is the first time
I've had cause to doubt Ainge.

Josh

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Josh Ozersky" <jozersky@xxxxxxxxxx>; <celtics@xxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 11:59 AM
Subject: RE: Juwan Howard?


Here's the Insider article:

# With Vin Baker now kicked to the curb, Celtics GM Danny Ainge has
turned his attention to the Celtics' glaring hole at the four. Using
Chris Mills and Chris Mihm as bait, sources told Insider on Monday that
Ainge has made numerous offers to teams and is waiting for someone to
come back and say yes. 

At the top of the Celtics list? The Magic's Juwan Howard. Howard's
reasonable (albeit long) salary, selflessness and hunger to play on a
good team all appeal to Ainge. Howard got great reviews in Denver last
season and the Celtics believe he can help. To make the deal work, the
team would likely also have to swallow the salary of Pat Garrity, who's
out the rest of the year with an injury and either Steven Hunter or
Gordan Giricek (who the Magic seem to want to keep) in return. 

That's not the only team the Celtics are talking to. The Pistons
(Corliss Williamson) and the Blazers (Dale Davis) are also potential
partners. Ainge's willingness to take on guaranteed salaries make him an
unusual player at the trade deadline. The Celtics are confident they'll
win in arbitration on the Baker situation, putting their cap number at a
more reasonable number. It won't be enough to make a huge splash in free
agency, which is why Ainge is determined to move Mills and Mihm now
before they slip away for nothing. 

# What does the wholesale dumping of talent get the Magic? Wiggle room.
The team would have only $37 million in guaranteed salaries next season,
but with a high lottery pick and several cap holds, there won't be much
cap room left to work with unless it also finds a way to move Andrew
DeClercq and Reece Gaines off the roster by July 15th. 

This really speaks to the problem the Magic are facing. Even with just
three guaranteed contracts -- Tracy McGrady, Grant Hill and Drew Gooden
-- the high lottery pick and the cap holds the Magic are still nearly
capped out. 

Several other teams, including Detroit, Philly, Chicago and the
Warriors, have been trying to work out their own deals with Orlando, but
according to sources, the Magic really don't know what to do. Do they
try to add a veteran or two in an area of need (like Eric Snow or Erick
Dampier) or do they strip the team down to nothing? 

The chances of adding a veteran who can really turn things around in
Orlando are slim. But stripping down will surely push McGrady to opt out
of his contract after the end of next season. Either way it looks like
the Magic are hurting unless, that is, Hill retires (still, his contract
wouldn't be of the books until January 2005) or the team's able to trade
McGrady for another superstar with more years. Right now both event look
unlikely.

-----Original Message-----
From: Josh Ozersky [mailto:jozersky@xxxxxxxxxx] 
Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 10:57 AM
To: Berry, Mark S; celtics@xxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Here's a trade to make

I'm not torn at all.  I don't want Howard.  Another 
power forward who can't rebound, who needs the
ball 15 times a game to contribute, and who has 
been abused by every 4 from Antoine to Zach.  Keep
LaFrenz as the starting four, and PLAY HUNTER 
THIS YEAR!

Josh

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <celtics@xxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 10:38 AM
Subject: Re: Here's a trade to make


> I would say Taylor and Baker are different players, but not as vastly
> different as you suggest. How many of Vin's points were 15-foot
jumpers?
> Plenty. You're right that Mo Taylor takes more of those mid-range
> jumpers than Vin, but I don't think he's soft. He also has a post-up
> game. You can throw it to him with his back to the basket and he knows
> what to do with it. He's a good pick-and-roll player because he really
> knocks down that mid-range shot. He's a career 48 percent shooter who
> simply doesn't shoot three-pointers (thankfully). He averages around 5
> rpg in 28 mpg, and around 12 points (although he has averaged as much
as
> 17). He's 6-9, 255. You're right about him being injury-prone. He has
> missed a lot of games (15-20 a season) in recent years.
> 
> But it may be a moot point. ESPN Insider says Ainge's No. 1 target is
> Juwan Howard. Apparently it also mentions interest in Williamson and
> Dale Davis, but Juwan's salary, production and good attitude are
> attractive to Ainge.
> 
> I'm not a Juwan Howard fan, but I was surprised at his numbers this
> season and in recent years. He's averaging about 16 points and 7
> rebounds per game this season, on 45 percent shooting. Those numbers
> were 18 and 8 the previous two seasons. He's a career 18 and 7 guy, on
> 47 percent shooting. He's 6-9, 260. He has been durable. 
> 
> Howard definitely fills a need. He's a true power forward who can
score
> efficiently in the low post and is a decent rebounder. But he has been
> on some really terrible basketball teams. Maybe that's why I don't
like
> him. He just seems cursed. I don't believe he's the reason these teams
> are bad, but he also has proven he isn't a guy who can make a huge
> difference on his own. He was signed to the mid-level exception this
> past offseason, so he has five more years after this. That's
reasonable
> money, but a lot of years. He's tradeable, but not someone teams will
be
> knocking your door down for.
> 
> Insider says it's Howard and Garrity, who has four more seasons.
That's
> a lot of commitments. The good news is, if that's the deal, then the
> Celts would have to include Walter to make it work. So there's the
> addition by subtraction aspect to consider. 
> 
> Insider says Ainge has offers involving Mills/Mihm out there for guys
> like Howard (No. 1 on the list), Williamson and Dale Davis and is
> waiting for someone to bite. Howard probably is the best fit in terms
of
> talent, but Davis would be a nice fit also, and only has one more year
> on his deal. He'd be a valuable trade chip next season.
> 
> I don't know. I'm torn on Juwan Howard. Maybe it goes back to his days
> with the Fab Five in Michigan (I know, that's irrational, but I can't
> help it). It would be nice to have some bona fide NBA big men next
> season - Lafrentz and Howard, along with Blount and Perkins - but I'm
> still torn. Thoughts?
> 
> Mark
> 
> --- --- ---
> 
> Kestas wrote:
> 
> I think that they are very different players (drinking aside) in terms
> of how
> they score. Taylor is just not a low-post player. I have this image of
> him as a
> pretty-soft, injury-prone finesse PF who shoots midrange jumpers. When
> he's on,
> he's pretty hard to turn off. I remember him torching Toine a few
years
> back.
> Maybe I haven't seen enough of him.
> 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Sean Giovanello [mailto:sgiovanello@xxxxxxxxxxxx] 
> Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 9:20 AM
> To: Berry, Mark S
> Cc: celtics@xxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Malik Rose
> 
> If Danny has a long term plan, he cant make any of the deals.  That
is, 
> unless he is Rick Pitino with an eye for talent....
> 
> Berry, Mark S wrote:
> 
> >Rose for Mills and Jones doesn't work. The salaries don't match up.
In
> >fact, playing around on RealGM, I couldn't find a combination that
made
> >sense.
> >
> >
> >
> >But, let's assume they came up with something. What are everyone's
> >thoughts on Malik Rose? Personally, I love the guy. He's a warrior.
He
> >makes winning plays. Anyone who liked Eric Williams would love Malik
> >Rose. He's an undersized power forward, but at least he's a power
> >forward. He fills a need.
> >
> >
> >
> >So what's the problem? Well, he has a huge five-year contract. He got
> >one of those deals that made you take a second look when it was
> >announced. He's a nice player. I'd love a guy like that, but only if
> >he's making about half the money Rose is currently making. Rose is
one
> >of those guys who was overpaid by his team because he was so valuable
> to
> >them, but probably wouldn't be as valuable to anyone else.
> >
> >
> >
> >Would I do this trade? If it's Rose and San Antonio's first-rounder
for
> >Mills and Jones, I probably don't do it. You're taking on a bad,
> >long-term contract and the only incentive would be a very late
> >first-round pick - and every year you hear about teams trying to dump
> >those picks so they don't have to pay the guaranteed contract. Do the
> >Spurs own the rights to any promising foreign players? Do they own
> >anyone else's first-rounder? Ray, do you know of anything? It would
> take
> >something like that to prod me into making this trade. This is
> assuming,
> >of course, that Ginobli is off limits.
> >
> >
> >
> >These are the types of players we're talking about now. They all have
> >bad contracts - Williamson, Rose, Jahidi White. The key is how much
the
> >other team is willing to pay to convince you to take the bad
contract.
> >If it's just a low first-rounder, that shouldn't be enough.
Personally,
> >I'm still hoping the Suns include either Vujanic (our answer at point
> >guard) or Zarko (maybe the answer at power forward). Casey Jacobsen
> >doesn't cut it.
> >
> >
> >
> >The point is this: The return we get for the Mills contract shouldn't
> be
> >based on the player with the big contract. It should depend on the
> >sweetener.
> >
> >
> >
> >Mark