Re: Juwan Howard?

["Josh Ozersky" <jozersky@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Another great post, Mark.  But how is Howard
so superior to Mihm, who is younger and more 
athletic, and a vastly superior rebounder and 
shotblocker?  I guess Howard does give you some
low-post scoring, but is it any more than we used
to get from Eric Williams?

Josh

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Josh Ozersky" <jozersky@xxxxxxxxxx>; "celtics list" <celtics@xxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 1:07 PM
Subject: RE: Juwan Howard?


> I like Mihm, but he can't stay on the floor and he's a free agent after
> the season (team option). More importantly, it's clear now that Ainge
> doesn't see him as part of the long-range plan. He's a center, and Ainge
> clearly values Blount and Kendrick more than he values Mihm. So he's
> using him as trade bait. At any rate, it's awfully hard to argue that
> Mihm is a better player than Howard.
> 
> I think everyone (me included) has a negative impression of Juwan Howard
> because he was so grossly overpaid under his last contract. He became
> the poster child for bad contracts. He's not making $17 million a year
> anymore. He's under contract for $5 mill a year. He was the hottest
> mid-level free agent last offseason, and, according to Chad Ford,
> several teams are chasing him right now. He's not the missing piece for
> anyone, but he's a contributing piece.
> 
> Ainge isn't trying to become the youngest team in the league. He's
> trying to stockpile assets. Talented players who help the team win in
> the short term but also have trade value in the long-term. Ricky Davis
> and Juwan Howard qualify because they're talented players, they can help
> the team win while they're here, but they have reasonable contracts that
> make them tradeable down the line. The Celtics don't have a lot of those
> guys. Their tradeable assets have been expiring contracts (Eric
> Williams, Chris Mills, etc.). They needed tradeable PLAYERS. Ainge is
> getting them. Put Juwan Howard on the market, and the offers that come
> in will be much better than if you put Brandon Hunter on the market.
> 
> Ainge's ultimate model is Sacramento, but the model for his rebuilding
> strategy is Detroit. The Pistons added contributing players wherever
> they could. They took advantage of every asset, including expiring
> contracts, to add to the team. They didn't force-feed young players.
> They didn't strip it bare and start over. They remained competitive
> while doing it, and now they're in position to make some big moves. Fans
> never get excited about guys like Juwan Howard or Cliff Robinson (a
> comparable acquisition when Detroit picked him up a few years ago), but
> guys like that are important.
> 
> There are two keys to making this work next season: 1. Find a point
> guard. Maybe Marcus Banks makes a leap before his second season. Many
> point guards do. If not, Ainge has to find a better answer. Maybe that's
> Brent Barry with the mid-level exception. 2. Find a coach who can do
> with Pierce what Rick Carlisle did with Jerry Stackhouse a few years
> ago. If you remember, the Pistons were a lot like the Celtics -- they
> went to Stackhouse every time and he averaged a lot of points, shot a
> lousy percentage and turned the ball over a lot. Carlisle convinced
> Stackhouse to sacrifice some shots and individual stats for the sake of
> the team, and it worked. That's when the Pistons surprised everyone and
> won 50 games. The Celtics can make the same kind of move, but everyone
> has to be on board -- especially Pierce.
> 
> Mark
> 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Josh Ozersky [mailto:jozersky@xxxxxxxxxx] 
> Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 12:16 PM
> To: Berry, Mark S; celtics list
> Subject: Re: Juwan Howard?
> 
> I'd still much rather have Mihm, and wouldn't trade him
> even up for Howard, much less add in a huge sweetener
> like Mills.  Mihm can rebound and block shots, and is an
> effective enough scorer with room to improve.  Howard
> is a defensive sieve and overpaid too.  This is the first time
> I've had cause to doubt Ainge.
> 
> Josh
> 
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Josh Ozersky" <jozersky@xxxxxxxxxx>; <celtics@xxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 11:59 AM
> Subject: RE: Juwan Howard?
> 
> 
> Here's the Insider article:
> 
> # With Vin Baker now kicked to the curb, Celtics GM Danny Ainge has
> turned his attention to the Celtics' glaring hole at the four. Using
> Chris Mills and Chris Mihm as bait, sources told Insider on Monday that
> Ainge has made numerous offers to teams and is waiting for someone to
> come back and say yes. 
> 
> At the top of the Celtics list? The Magic's Juwan Howard. Howard's
> reasonable (albeit long) salary, selflessness and hunger to play on a
> good team all appeal to Ainge. Howard got great reviews in Denver last
> season and the Celtics believe he can help. To make the deal work, the
> team would likely also have to swallow the salary of Pat Garrity, who's
> out the rest of the year with an injury and either Steven Hunter or
> Gordan Giricek (who the Magic seem to want to keep) in return. 
> 
> That's not the only team the Celtics are talking to. The Pistons
> (Corliss Williamson) and the Blazers (Dale Davis) are also potential
> partners. Ainge's willingness to take on guaranteed salaries make him an
> unusual player at the trade deadline. The Celtics are confident they'll
> win in arbitration on the Baker situation, putting their cap number at a
> more reasonable number. It won't be enough to make a huge splash in free
> agency, which is why Ainge is determined to move Mills and Mihm now
> before they slip away for nothing. 
> 
> # What does the wholesale dumping of talent get the Magic? Wiggle room.
> The team would have only $37 million in guaranteed salaries next season,
> but with a high lottery pick and several cap holds, there won't be much
> cap room left to work with unless it also finds a way to move Andrew
> DeClercq and Reece Gaines off the roster by July 15th. 
> 
> This really speaks to the problem the Magic are facing. Even with just
> three guaranteed contracts -- Tracy McGrady, Grant Hill and Drew Gooden
> -- the high lottery pick and the cap holds the Magic are still nearly
> capped out. 
> 
> Several other teams, including Detroit, Philly, Chicago and the
> Warriors, have been trying to work out their own deals with Orlando, but
> according to sources, the Magic really don't know what to do. Do they
> try to add a veteran or two in an area of need (like Eric Snow or Erick
> Dampier) or do they strip the team down to nothing? 
> 
> The chances of adding a veteran who can really turn things around in
> Orlando are slim. But stripping down will surely push McGrady to opt out
> of his contract after the end of next season. Either way it looks like
> the Magic are hurting unless, that is, Hill retires (still, his contract
> wouldn't be of the books until January 2005) or the team's able to trade
> McGrady for another superstar with more years. Right now both event look
> unlikely.
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Josh Ozersky [mailto:jozersky@xxxxxxxxxx] 
> Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 10:57 AM
> To: Berry, Mark S; celtics@xxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Here's a trade to make
> 
> I'm not torn at all.  I don't want Howard.  Another 
> power forward who can't rebound, who needs the
> ball 15 times a game to contribute, and who has 
> been abused by every 4 from Antoine to Zach.  Keep
> LaFrenz as the starting four, and PLAY HUNTER 
> THIS YEAR!
> 
> Josh
> 
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <celtics@xxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 10:38 AM
> Subject: Re: Here's a trade to make
> 
> 
> > I would say Taylor and Baker are different players, but not as vastly
> > different as you suggest. How many of Vin's points were 15-foot
> jumpers?
> > Plenty. You're right that Mo Taylor takes more of those mid-range
> > jumpers than Vin, but I don't think he's soft. He also has a post-up
> > game. You can throw it to him with his back to the basket and he knows
> > what to do with it. He's a good pick-and-roll player because he really
> > knocks down that mid-range shot. He's a career 48 percent shooter who
> > simply doesn't shoot three-pointers (thankfully). He averages around 5
> > rpg in 28 mpg, and around 12 points (although he has averaged as much
> as
> > 17). He's 6-9, 255. You're right about him being injury-prone. He has
> > missed a lot of games (15-20 a season) in recent years.
> > 
> > But it may be a moot point. ESPN Insider says Ainge's No. 1 target is
> > Juwan Howard. Apparently it also mentions interest in Williamson and
> > Dale Davis, but Juwan's salary, production and good attitude are
> > attractive to Ainge.
> > 
> > I'm not a Juwan Howard fan, but I was surprised at his numbers this
> > season and in recent years. He's averaging about 16 points and 7
> > rebounds per game this season, on 45 percent shooting. Those numbers
> > were 18 and 8 the previous two seasons. He's a career 18 and 7 guy, on
> > 47 percent shooting. He's 6-9, 260. He has been durable. 
> > 
> > Howard definitely fills a need. He's a true power forward who can
> score
> > efficiently in the low post and is a decent rebounder. But he has been
> > on some really terrible basketball teams. Maybe that's why I don't
> like
> > him. He just seems cursed. I don't believe he's the reason these teams
> > are bad, but he also has proven he isn't a guy who can make a huge
> > difference on his own. He was signed to the mid-level exception this
> > past offseason, so he has five more years after this. That's
> reasonable
> > money, but a lot of years. He's tradeable, but not someone teams will
> be
> > knocking your door down for.
> > 
> > Insider says it's Howard and Garrity, who has four more seasons.
> That's
> > a lot of commitments. The good news is, if that's the deal, then the
> > Celts would have to include Walter to make it work. So there's the
> > addition by subtraction aspect to consider. 
> > 
> > Insider says Ainge has offers involving Mills/Mihm out there for guys
> > like Howard (No. 1 on the list), Williamson and Dale Davis and is
> > waiting for someone to bite. Howard probably is the best fit in terms
> of
> > talent, but Davis would be a nice fit also, and only has one more year
> > on his deal. He'd be a valuable trade chip next season.
> > 
> > I don't know. I'm torn on Juwan Howard. Maybe it goes back to his days
> > with the Fab Five in Michigan (I know, that's irrational, but I can't
> > help it). It would be nice to have some bona fide NBA big men next
> > season - Lafrentz and Howard, along with Blount and Perkins - but I'm
> > still torn. Thoughts?
> > 
> > Mark
> > 
> > --- --- ---
> > 
> > Kestas wrote:
> > 
> > I think that they are very different players (drinking aside) in terms
> > of how
> > they score. Taylor is just not a low-post player. I have this image of
> > him as a
> > pretty-soft, injury-prone finesse PF who shoots midrange jumpers. When
> > he's on,
> > he's pretty hard to turn off. I remember him torching Toine a few
> years
> > back.
> > Maybe I haven't seen enough of him.
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Sean Giovanello [mailto:sgiovanello@xxxxxxxxxxxx] 
> > Sent: Tuesday, February 17, 2004 9:20 AM
> > To: Berry, Mark S
> > Cc: celtics@xxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: Malik Rose
> > 
> > If Danny has a long term plan, he cant make any of the deals.  That
> is, 
> > unless he is Rick Pitino with an eye for talent....
> > 
> > Berry, Mark S wrote:
> > 
> > >Rose for Mills and Jones doesn't work. The salaries don't match up.
> In
> > >fact, playing around on RealGM, I couldn't find a combination that
> made
> > >sense.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >But, let's assume they came up with something. What are everyone's
> > >thoughts on Malik Rose? Personally, I love the guy. He's a warrior.
> He
> > >makes winning plays. Anyone who liked Eric Williams would love Malik
> > >Rose. He's an undersized power forward, but at least he's a power
> > >forward. He fills a need.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >So what's the problem? Well, he has a huge five-year contract. He got
> > >one of those deals that made you take a second look when it was
> > >announced. He's a nice player. I'd love a guy like that, but only if
> > >he's making about half the money Rose is currently making. Rose is
> one
> > >of those guys who was overpaid by his team because he was so valuable
> > to
> > >them, but probably wouldn't be as valuable to anyone else.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >Would I do this trade? If it's Rose and San Antonio's first-rounder
> for
> > >Mills and Jones, I probably don't do it. You're taking on a bad,
> > >long-term contract and the only incentive would be a very late
> > >first-round pick - and every year you hear about teams trying to dump
> > >those picks so they don't have to pay the guaranteed contract. Do the
> > >Spurs own the rights to any promising foreign players? Do they own
> > >anyone else's first-rounder? Ray, do you know of anything? It would
> > take
> > >something like that to prod me into making this trade. This is
> > assuming,
> > >of course, that Ginobli is off limits.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >These are the types of players we're talking about now. They all have
> > >bad contracts - Williamson, Rose, Jahidi White. The key is how much
> the
> > >other team is willing to pay to convince you to take the bad
> contract.
> > >If it's just a low first-rounder, that shouldn't be enough.
> Personally,
> > >I'm still hoping the Suns include either Vujanic (our answer at point
> > >guard) or Zarko (maybe the answer at power forward). Casey Jacobsen
> > >doesn't cut it.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >The point is this: The return we get for the Mills contract shouldn't
> > be
> > >based on the player with the big contract. It should depend on the
> > >sweetener.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >Mark