What to do with Baker?

[Mark Piotrowski <markp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I think that the major off-court problem with this version of the 
Celtics is inefficiency of the team's salary structure -- basically the 
performers are low paid players and the high paid players aren't doing 
much (outside of Pierce).

This year, 82% of our salaries are going to 6 players and only 2 of 
them are in the top 6 in terms of production/talent this year.  
Contrast that to teams like Sacramento ( 
http://www.hoopshype.com/salaries/sacramento.htm ), Detroit or New 
Orleans.  The teams that make efficient use of their salaries -- 
highest performers = highest paid -- tend to be the most consistently 
strong teams.  Unlike those teams our big salaries are tied up in 
inactive or margnial talent -- in fact we may have the most 
inefficiently salaried team in the NBA (Atlanta at least gets something 
out of Ratliff, Henderson and Mohammed):

Top 6 talent/production
-------------------------
1. Pierce
2. Davis
2a. Welsch
4. James
5. Blount
6. LaFrentz/Baker - you could make an argument for Mihm here but 
LaFrentz is the better player overall.

Top 6 Salaries
---------------
Baker -- 12.975 million
Pierce -- 11.318
LaFrentz -- 8.178
Mills -- 6.6
Davis -- 5.0
Stewart -- 4.48

After that the next highest salary is Mihm at 2.8 mil, so you can also 
say that we're getting good production from our cheaper players but 
that's less of a good thing than getting so little out of our expensive 
players.  Obviously Pierce & Davis are "earning" their salary slots, 
while Baker, LaFrentz, Mills & Stewart aren't.

It's this part -- the four over-earners -- that I think Ainge has to 
try and fix.  Mills & Stewart will be solved through attrition (or a 
trade), and we have to assume (hope) that LaFrentz will come back close 
to 100% next year.  Yes he's getting paid too much for even his 
best-case production (his career bests are 15 ppg, 7.5 reb, 3 blks), 
but when combined with the relative savings of Davis' contract, its not 
a cap-breaker.  Of course, if he's got a chronic injury it's a totally 
different story.

Which brings us back to Baker.  Oobviously he has got to go, the 
question is how?  There are 3 basic options:

1.  Ignore his salary -- do what Dallas does with Abdul-Wahid + Bradley 
or Chicago does with Eddie Robinson and just sit him, luxury tax be 
damned.  Celtic Ownership though is not going to do that

2.  Buyout -- This will probably happen this summer.  The problem 
though is that we still have Baker on the cap, just at a lower amount.  
He's owed $33 mil over the next 2 years, so even if we can get a $18-20 
mil buyout, he's still on the cap for LaFrentz-like numbers the next 2 
years, which is still too much for zero production.  The one thing a 
buyout does is alow us to go after a mid-level exception Free Agent.

However, the pickings look to be pretty slim this year for a team like 
the C's -- who post-Baker buyout could offer a little more than the 
mid-level, but not too much more.  So unless you're talking about a 
player that just wants to get out of a situation (like Olowokandi last 
year) you have to rule out restricted Free Agents  (like Kenyon Martin 
or Q. Richardson because either their team will match a reasonable 
offer (Martin) or someone else will outbid us (Richardson, say 
Denver)).  If we're shopping for a PG, or wide body here's who might be 
available:

(the aforementioned) Brent Barry -- eh, i'd pass
Carlos Arroyo -- though Utah has the room to outbid any midlevel offers
Kenny Anderson -- i imagine he's happier in Indy than he would be 
coming here; not worht the mid-level
Brevin Knight  -- not really worth the mid-level
Gary Trent -- not really worth the mid-level
Antonio McDyess -- injury concerns, someone will overpay
Keon Clark -- someone will overpay, thus outbid a midlevel
Zeljko Rebracca -- could fall through the cracks, but like McDyess has 
health concerns
Stromile Swift -- could become a unrestricted FA if he's left exposed 
in Exp. draft, but would probably get more than the mid-level.

So the mid-level exception might not be the panacea we all hope it 
could/would be.  Which leads me to suggesting that we should let Mills' 
contract expire and instead persue a trade involving Baker.

3.  Trade -- OK stop laughing, if you believe the recent rumors out of 
NY that Isaiah would sign Baker if he's bought-out this summer, there 
may be some hope.  If it's true, wouldn't the Knicks be better off 
trying to jettison some of their cap crap off on us and/or trying to 
extract something extra?  Since Baker is the biggest albatross around 
our necks, I'd be willing to do that and/or sweeten the pot, thusly:

Vin Baker + Mark Blount + (if necessary) #1 pick (either Bos or Dal)

for

Kurt Thomas + Shandon Anderson + Othella Harrington

Reasoning:
-----------
NYK -- What does NY care? They're going to be over the cap for the next 
3 years no matter what and there is no pressure on Isaiah to get under 
the cap.  This way they get (a) #1 pick (which they lost in the Marbury 
deal), (b) Blount - who they could actually resign (with partial Bird 
rights?) to replace Mutombo, and (c) they line up more of their 
expiring contracts for the summer when Yao Ming becomes a FA -- don't 
think they'll make a play for him?  Don't think he'd like to play in 
NYC?  This deal also subtracts Kurt Thomas from the PF equation 
allowing them to start Sweetney.

BOS -- I'd argue Kurt Thomas is far-and-away better than anyone we're 
gonna get with the MLE.  He'd solve our problem at PF and make a nice 
combo with LaFrentz at the 4 & 5 position, with Mihm, Hunter, Perkins 
and Stewart (in that order) coming off the bench.  We'd be in roughly 
the same position cap-wise (since we'd add about $1 mil more in 
salaries but wouldn't have 2 rookie contracts) for next year, but would 
have $17 million worth of expiring contracts next year -- meaning 
multiple trade possibiilites or the possibilty of adding a lower priced 
free agent (like Arenas or Andre Miller this summer).

Furthermore, his, Harrington's, Hunter's and Mihm's contract expire at 
the same time, allowing us to decide which of them is the answer at PF. 
 If its clear Mihm and Hunter aren't the answer, we can re-up Thomas at 
something around $6-8 mil/3yr

Instead our top 6 earners next year are much more productive -- with 
Stewart on his way out and Anderson's $7.3 mil more tradeable when 
packaged with Stewart and Harrington, than Baker's $14.6 mil:

Pierce -- 11.318 million
LaFrentz -- 8.178
Anderson -- 7.3
Thomas -- 5.88
Davis -- 5.0
Stewart -- 4.48