Interesting Insider article on the expansion draft

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I found this interesting. It lays out some scenarios surrounding next
summer's expansion draft. It's long, but worth the read. While we're on the
subject, has anyone else tried to look at who the Celts might protect? They
get to protect eight players. It's not as easy to choose those players as
you'd think. Anyway, kind of a fun exercise.

Mark


We may be 360 days away from the Charlotte Bobcats first real game in the
NBA. But for the 29 existing NBA teams, there is an intense interest,
bordering on obsession, with the league's 30th franchise. 
At a time of year when teams are already dispatching armies of scouts in
search of the next great draft prospect, the Bobcats' scouts aren't just
hanging around college campuses and international arenas. 
Charlotte GM Bernie Bickerstaff and the rest of his scouts are coming to an
arena near you. Their goal? Find the perfect player to pluck off another
team's squad during the 2004 NBA Expansion Draft. 
The Expansion Draft, which will take place sometime between the end of the
NBA Finals and the 2004 NBA Draft, allows the Bobcats to select players from
existing NBA teams. 
While the league is still finalizing all the rules of the expansion draft
(teams expect an official memo from the league to come sometime this month)
many of the rules are already in the collective bargaining agreement.
Insider has talked to league and team sources to get a handle on what is
likely to take place on expansion draft night. Things are always subject to
change and interpretation, but at this point the process is shaping up to be
rather intriguing. 
To start with, teams will be allowed to protect eight players. If they have
fewer than eight players under contract, they will have to leave at least
one player unprotected. 
The prospect of losing a critical player in the expansion draft has some
teams wringing their hands. Teams with a deep reserve of young players --
like the Grizzlies, Pacers and Bucks -- are in danger of losing a prospect
they'd prefer to keep around. 
The Bobcats are allowed to select a maximum of one player from each team.
They must select a minimum of 14 players overall and can take a maximum of
29. 
To many GMs, the expansion draft is a very rare opportunity. The Bobcats
eventually are projected to have a salary cap of $29.7 million next season
(two-thirds of an estimated $45 million cap), but they won't be bound by
that number during the expansion draft. The Bobcats will be free to select
as many contracts as they like. If new owner Bob Johnson wants to draft $50
million in salaries, the league will let him. 
Combine that with a little-known rule in the collective bargaining agreement
that allows expansion teams to get salaries off their cap early by waiving
players selected in the expansion draft before the first day of the regular
season, and many GMs believe that a large, one-time loophole has been blown
through the league's strict cap rules. 
For you hardcore fans out there, here's the rule: 
		The Salary of any player selected by an Expansion Team in an
expansion draft and terminated in accordance with the NBA waiver procedure
before the first day of the Expansion Team's first Season shall not be
included in the Expansion Team's Team Salary, except, to the extent such
Salary is paid, for purposes of determining whether the Expansion Team has
satisfied its Minimum Team Salary obligation for such Season. (Article VII,
Section 4)
There is no question teams will try to capitalize on this obscure provision.
The Wizards, for example, could offer their first-round pick in the regular
draft and $3 million (the maximum allowed by the collective bargaining
agreement) to the Bobcats in exchange for Charlotte selecting someone like
Christian Laettner
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=837>  in the
expansion draft. 
The move would take Laettner's $6.2 million salary for next season off the
books in Washington, giving the Wizards roughly $10 million in cap room for
Ernie Grunfeld to use in free agency. The Bobcats then could waive Laettner
and preserve all of their cap space for free agency (though Johnson would
still be on the hook to pay Laettner's salary minus the cash he gets from
Washington). 
Is cap room really worth cash and a pick? 
"Absolutely," one Eastern Conference GM told Insider. "A pick, a player and
$3 million in cash for $5- or $6 million or more in cap room? That's
priceless. Ed Tapscott will be fielding a ton of offers the next few
months." 
In essence, now that the regular season has begun, the Bobcats suddenly are
holding all of the leverage. So far, executive vice president Ed Tapscott
and Bickerstaff aren't showing their hand. 
There are numerous ways a team can go in an expansion draft. Most of it
depends on what Johnson is willing to spend. 
The All-Star Approach 
If he's a Mark Cuban-type owner, they could select from a plethora of stars
who are expected to be left unprotected. Most teams leave players with huge
contracts unprotected thinking that an expansion team won't want to spend
all of their cash at once. 
However, if Johnson felt the urge to blow $50 or $60 million from the get go
and put a competitive team on the floor -- he'll have the opportunity. An
Insider analysis of each team's roster, and the eight players they would
likely protect, left players like this unprotected: Antawn Jamison
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3247> , Bonzi Wells
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3254> , Tim Thomas
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3170> , Brian Grant
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2631> , Eddie Jones
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2633> , Penny
Hardaway, James Posey
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3341> , Raef LaFrentz
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3246> , Marcus Camby
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3084> , Grant Hill
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2626>  and Jerome
James <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3279> . 
Drafting an all-star team is the most unlikely scenario. Teams leave players
like this unprotected because they believe that a new team wouldn't want the
burdens of expensive, long-term contracts. Besides, the general feeling
around the league is that Johnson is much more conservative with his money
than guys like Mark Cuban and Paul Allen. They don't expect him to break the
bank to field a competitive team in Charlotte. 
New GM Bernie Bickerstaff insinuated the same thing on Wednesday. "We want
to build through the draft and go young," Bickerstaff said. "It's a
marathon. We won't be pressured. We hope to get guys who will become big
names. . .We want young, hungry competitive guys who want to prove what they
can do in the NBA. We will give them the chance to show the world what they
can do. " 
The Less is More Philosophy 
The opposite (and more likely) scenario, according to some league execs, is
for the Bobcats to actually take no salaries back in return. How do they do
that? 
While unrestricted free agents aren't eligible for the draft (they're
essentially ignored in that teams don't have to protected them and the
Bobcats can't select them), restricted free agents can be drafted. However,
the restricted free agents become unrestricted if the Bobcats draft them.
While the Bobcats would still retain their Bird Rights to the player (the
ability to exceed the salary cap to re-sign a player with three or more
years in the league), they would not have the matching rights that most
teams have with restricted free agents. 
Theoretically, the Bobcats could draft a team of: Chris Mihm
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3406> , Jamison
Brewer <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3550> , Bobby
Simmons <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3551> ,
Jannero Pargo <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3660> ,
Joel Przybilla <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3408>
, Trenton Hassell
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3539> , Tamar Slay
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3651> , Britton
Johnsen <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3769> ,
Robert Archibald
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3629> , Josh Moore
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3797> , Mike Wilks
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3692> , James Lang,
Richie Frahm <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3676>
and Steve Blake <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3741>
, waive all of them and pay virtually nothing. 
That approach gives the Bobcats their full $29 million (minus a $6.38
million in cap holds for the fourth pick in the draft and 10 other minimum
roster spots) to work with in the free-agent market. 
For all of you Kobe to Charlotte fans out there, this is the scenario where
the Bobcats could, theoretically, offer Kobe a max deal to bolt L.A. and
head back to Charlotte where he was drafted seven season to go. 
However, the problem with that scenario is well known in places like Denver
and Salt Lake. Top free agents usually balk at signing with teams that don't
have a chance to compete. The chances of Kobe or any other top-flight
free-agent signing on in Charlotte are slim. That's why another approach may
be warranted. 
Let's Make a Deal 
What teams are hoping is that the Bobcats take the middle road. There are as
many as eight teams that have a player the Bobcats might realistically
consider taking if a team offers compensation in the form of a draft pick
and cash in return. 
Here's a hypothetical scenario (see table on right) of how things could pan
out if the Bobcats decide that stockpiling first-round picks is the way to
build the franchise. 
The first eight players would all be part of larger deals that should, in
each instance, land the Bobcats a future first-round pick and three million
in cash. 
The total salaries the Bobcats would have to assume would be $46.2 million
in 2004, and $16.9 million in 2005. The Bobcats would receive $24 million in
cash to offset the $46.2 million number. Because of the rules governing
expansion teams, the Bobcats could then turn around and waive all eight
players. Combine that with the last six players, all of whom have no
guaranteed money due in 2004, and the Bobcats could walk away with eight
extra first-round picks and all of their cap room if Johnson is willing to
write a check for $30 million. 
That's a pretty serious bargain. Would the Pistons, Wizards, Grizzlies,
Celtics, Suns, Bulls, Warriors and Spurs be willing to send cash and picks
the Bobcats' way? 
Probably. The move is a slam dunk for the Pistons, Wizards and Spurs. The
Pistons are trying to get far enough under the cap to either re-sign Mehmet
Okur <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3547>  or to
make a major play in the free-agent market. If they could move Atkins, the
Pistons are looking at $10 million in cap space next summer. Ditto for the
Wizards. They cleared about $5.9 million by moving Jahidi White to the Suns
on Wednesday. If they can get Laettner off the books as well, the team is
looking at $10 to $11 million in room. 
The Spurs have the biggest incentive. San Antonio could theoretically clear
around $15 million in cap room if they waived their free agents and got the
Bobcats to take Bowen. That would give them enough to make a serious run at
Kobe next summer. 
The other teams don't experience such dramatic effects, but trading a pick
and cash for the cap room still makes sense. The Grizzlies, by losing
Outlaw, could get around $6 million under the cap. The Warriors could get
nearly $7 million under by convincing the Bobcats to take Robinson. The Suns
can move out of luxury-tax land if the Bobcats would take White off their
hands. The Celtics could get more luxury-tax breathing room to sign a free
agent with their mid-level exception. And the Bulls would get more room
re-sign their own free agents. 
This is just the tip of the iceberg. There will also be scenarios where a
team might give the Bobcats a pick or cash not to select a player they had
to leave unprotected. 
Anyway you slice it, for the next eight months the Bobcats are in an
enviable position. With a clean cap, an escalating cap (two-thirds this
season, three-fourths in 2005, a full cap in 2006) the potential to horde a
massive amount of first-round picks, a good first-round pick this season and
no restrictions on how high they can pick in 2005, the Bobcats have a luxury
that none of the other 29 teams in the league have ever had -- the ability
to build a team from scratch under the new rules of the collective
bargaining agreement. 
Teams are still suffering from bad deals they made before the new CBA kicked
in. Can the Bobcats learn from their mistakes and help out a few other
franchises along the way? You'll have to wait seven months to find out.