Re: Interesting Insider article on the expansion draft

[Ryan W <ubiquitous_am_i@xxxxxxxxx>]

Good article, Mark.

Here are my thoughts on the expansion draft.

There are two controlling principles:  (1) Identify
the players you don't, under any circumstances, want
to lose.  (2) Identify the players that the Bobcats
probably wouldn't want (for various reasons, be it
talent-level or salary issues).

In the first category, the C's would place:

Pierce--no brainer
Banks--1st rounder this year, as of now still in the
organization's good graces...
Perkins--same as above
Jiri--he's in the plans as of now
Jones--assuming he plays well; he's only 24, would be
attrative for an expansion team, we gotta keep him...

In the second category:

Baker (regardless of how well he's playing, he'll
never be picked up in the expansion draft--so you
leave him unprotected.  And if he is?  Well we all get
drunk and fantasize about what free agents we could
pick up)
Walter (I'd be shocked if the Bobcats picked him
up...but if they want him, they can have him)

There could be others, but for now we'll assume Vinnie
and Walter the only ones in this category...

Lastly, who are the players that will be free agents
(and thus are the players we don't have to debate
about protecting)

E Williams
Mills

At this point, we have 5 must-protects, 2
nobody-will-takes, and 2 need-not-be-protected.  By
process of elimination, there are 6 players to be
determined, with 3 spots left to be placed.

Let's go to the names:

James--really no reason to protect him, assuming Banks
develops as anticipated; could be replaced easily
Kedrick--his youth, cheap rookie contract, and body
make him attractive to an expansion team
Blount--same as Kedrick, but performing better right
now, is 7 foot, has shown improvement and willingness
to work hard
Battie--a little injury-prone, but has a cheap
contract (relatively speaking in terms of comparable
talent).  Is the best of our centers when healthy. 
Tough call on Tony, depends on how much you wish to
save in salary.
LaFrentz--makes a ton and depending on what Charlotte
is willing to take on in salary, maybe he's someone we
put out there knowing that he won't be taken.  As of
now, however, he'll probably be kept...though, if
taken, he would clear a lot of salary cap room
Hunter--no salary cap savings here.  Would be
attractive to the Bobcats, with his youth, giant body
and cheap contract.  He does become an unrestricted
free agent, however, upon being selected in the
expansion draft...

So who of these three are left unprotected?

As I mentioned, I think James gets left unprotected. 
He's just too easily replaceable, yet he would make a
good addition to an expansion team.  Secondly, I think
we leave LaFrentz unprotected as well.  First, I don't
think they'll take him.  His contract is hugh and he's
underachieved.  Assuming he doesn't explode this year
(make the All-Star team, for example), I bet he's on
the list (and that he doesn't get picked).  Lastly, I
say Battie is left unprotected.  Unfortunately, I
think he gets chosen as well....but we have to lose
someone in this draft (since we're, all of a sudden,
stocked with talent).  It's tough choosing between
Hunter, Blount, Battie, and Brown, but, in the end,
you have to go with value...what you lose as opposed
to what you get.  Battie makes the most...his loss
could be used to get better-than-we-would-have-gotten
free agents.  Kedrick, Blount (I think) and Hunter are
all free agents the year after next anyway and all
make small change, so their places on the roster don't
either harm the C's that much (in terms of salary cap)
or benefit them that much if they were to leave.  Plus
each could be chips (as expiring contracts) in some
future deals...

Ryan

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