re: Interesting Insider article on the expansion draft

[wayray@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]

The Celtics should protect: Pierce, Banks, Perkins, LaFrentz, Welsch, Hunter, 
Battie, Jumaine James (Substitution: Baker for Battie). 

Unprotected: Kedrick Brown, Baker, McCarty, Blount, Mike James. 

Williams and Mills are free agents. 

And the Hornets select: Either Blount, Brown, or Battie. 

And the Celtics machinations: A first and cash for the Bobcats to take and waive Baker, 
with the Celtics re-signing him as a free agent, if that's allowed. That way you ditch his contract, but retain his services. 
Ray 





> ** Original Subject: Interesting Insider article on the expansion draft
> ** Original Sender: "Berry, Mark  S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> ** Original Date: Fri, 7 Nov 2003 08:35:12 -0800 (PST)

> ** Original Message follows... 

>
> I found this interesting. It lays out some scenarios surrounding next
> summer's expansion draft. It's long, but worth the read. While we're on the
> subject, has anyone else tried to look at who the Celts might protect? They
> get to protect eight players. It's not as easy to choose those players as
> you'd think. Anyway, kind of a fun exercise.
> 
> Mark
> 
> 
> We may be 360 days away from the Charlotte Bobcats first real game in the
> NBA. But for the 29 existing NBA teams, there is an intense interest,
> bordering on obsession, with the league's 30th franchise. 
> At a time of year when teams are already dispatching armies of scouts in
> search of the next great draft prospect, the Bobcats' scouts aren't just
> hanging around college campuses and international arenas. 
> Charlotte GM Bernie Bickerstaff and the rest of his scouts are coming to an
> arena near you. Their goal? Find the perfect player to pluck off another
> team's squad during the 2004 NBA Expansion Draft. 
> The Expansion Draft, which will take place sometime between the end of the
> NBA Finals and the 2004 NBA Draft, allows the Bobcats to select players from
> existing NBA teams. 
> While the league is still finalizing all the rules of the expansion draft
> (teams expect an official memo from the league to come sometime this month)
> many of the rules are already in the collective bargaining agreement.
> Insider has talked to league and team sources to get a handle on what is
> likely to take place on expansion draft night. Things are always subject to
> change and interpretation, but at this point the process is shaping up to be
> rather intriguing. 
> To start with, teams will be allowed to protect eight players. If they have
> fewer than eight players under contract, they will have to leave at least
> one player unprotected. 
> The prospect of losing a critical player in the expansion draft has some
> teams wringing their hands. Teams with a deep reserve of young players --
> like the Grizzlies, Pacers and Bucks -- are in danger of losing a prospect
> they'd prefer to keep around. 
> The Bobcats are allowed to select a maximum of one player from each team.
> They must select a minimum of 14 players overall and can take a maximum of
> 29. 
> To many GMs, the expansion draft is a very rare opportunity. The Bobcats
> eventually are projected to have a salary cap of $29.7 million next season
> (two-thirds of an estimated $45 million cap), but they won't be bound by
> that number during the expansion draft. The Bobcats will be free to select
> as many contracts as they like. If new owner Bob Johnson wants to draft $50
> million in salaries, the league will let him. 
> Combine that with a little-known rule in the collective bargaining agreement
> that allows expansion teams to get salaries off their cap early by waiving
> players selected in the expansion draft before the first day of the regular
> season, and many GMs believe that a large, one-time loophole has been blown
> through the league's strict cap rules. 
> For you hardcore fans out there, here's the rule: 
> 		The Salary of any player selected by an Expansion Team in an
> expansion draft and terminated in accordance with the NBA waiver procedure
> before the first day of the Expansion Team's first Season shall not be
> included in the Expansion Team's Team Salary, except, to the extent such
> Salary is paid, for purposes of determining whether the Expansion Team has
> satisfied its Minimum Team Salary obligation for such Season. (Article VII,
> Section 4)
> There is no question teams will try to capitalize on this obscure provision.
> The Wizards, for example, could offer their first-round pick in the regular
> draft and $3 million (the maximum allowed by the collective bargaining
> agreement) to the Bobcats in exchange for Charlotte selecting someone like
> Christian Laettner
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=837>  in the
> expansion draft. 
> The move would take Laettner's $6.2 million salary for next season off the
> books in Washington, giving the Wizards roughly $10 million in cap room for
> Ernie Grunfeld to use in free agency. The Bobcats then could waive Laettner
> and preserve all of their cap space for free agency (though Johnson would
> still be on the hook to pay Laettner's salary minus the cash he gets from
> Washington). 
> Is cap room really worth cash and a pick? 
> "Absolutely," one Eastern Conference GM told Insider. "A pick, a player and
> $3 million in cash for $5- or $6 million or more in cap room? That's
> priceless. Ed Tapscott will be fielding a ton of offers the next few
> months." 
> In essence, now that the regular season has begun, the Bobcats suddenly are
> holding all of the leverage. So far, executive vice president Ed Tapscott
> and Bickerstaff aren't showing their hand. 
> There are numerous ways a team can go in an expansion draft. Most of it
> depends on what Johnson is willing to spend. 
> The All-Star Approach 
> If he's a Mark Cuban-type owner, they could select from a plethora of stars
> who are expected to be left unprotected. Most teams leave players with huge
> contracts unprotected thinking that an expansion team won't want to spend
> all of their cash at once. 
> However, if Johnson felt the urge to blow $50 or $60 million from the get go
> and put a competitive team on the floor -- he'll have the opportunity. An
> Insider analysis of each team's roster, and the eight players they would
> likely protect, left players like this unprotected: Antawn Jamison
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3247> , Bonzi Wells
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3254> , Tim Thomas
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3170> , Brian Grant
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2631> , Eddie Jones
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2633> , Penny
> Hardaway, James Posey
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3341> , Raef LaFrentz
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3246> , Marcus Camby
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3084> , Grant Hill
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2626>  and Jerome
> James <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3279> . 
> Drafting an all-star team is the most unlikely scenario. Teams leave players
> like this unprotected because they believe that a new team wouldn't want the
> burdens of expensive, long-term contracts. Besides, the general feeling
> around the league is that Johnson is much more conservative with his money
> than guys like Mark Cuban and Paul Allen. They don't expect him to break the
> bank to field a competitive team in Charlotte. 
> New GM Bernie Bickerstaff insinuated the same thing on Wednesday. "We want
> to build through the draft and go young," Bickerstaff said. "It's a
> marathon. We won't be pressured. We hope to get guys who will become big
> names. . .We want young, hungry competitive guys who want to prove what they
> can do in the NBA. We will give them the chance to show the world what they
> can do. " 
> The Less is More Philosophy 
> The opposite (and more likely) scenario, according to some league execs, is
> for the Bobcats to actually take no salaries back in return. How do they do
> that? 
> While unrestricted free agents aren't eligible for the draft (they're
> essentially ignored in that teams don't have to protected them and the
> Bobcats can't select them), restricted free agents can be drafted. However,
> the restricted free agents become unrestricted if the Bobcats draft them.
> While the Bobcats would still retain their Bird Rights to the player (the
> ability to exceed the salary cap to re-sign a player with three or more
> years in the league), they would not have the matching rights that most
> teams have with restricted free agents. 
> Theoretically, the Bobcats could draft a team of: Chris Mihm
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3406> , Jamison
> Brewer <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3550> , Bobby
> Simmons <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3551> ,
> Jannero Pargo <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3660> ,
> Joel Przybilla <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3408>
> , Trenton Hassell
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3539> , Tamar Slay
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3651> , Britton
> Johnsen <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3769> ,
> Robert Archibald
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3629> , Josh Moore
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3797> , Mike Wilks
> <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3692> , James Lang,
> Richie Frahm <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3676>
> and Steve Blake <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3741>
> , waive all of them and pay virtually nothing. 
> That approach gives the Bobcats their full $29 million (minus a $6.38
> million in cap holds for the fourth pick in the draft and 10 other minimum
> roster spots) to work with in the free-agent market. 
> For all of you Kobe to Charlotte fans out there, this is the scenario where
> the Bobcats could, theoretically, offer Kobe a max deal to bolt L.A. and
> head back to Charlotte where he was drafted seven season to go. 
> However, the problem with that scenario is well known in places like Denver
> and Salt Lake. Top free agents usually balk at signing with teams that don't
> have a chance to compete. The chances of Kobe or any other top-flight
> free-agent signing on in Charlotte are slim. That's why another approach may
> be warranted. 
> Let's Make a Deal 
> What teams are hoping is that the Bobcats take the middle road. There are as
> many as eight teams that have a player the Bobcats might realistically
> consider taking if a team offers compensation in the form of a draft pick
> and cash in return. 
> Here's a hypothetical scenario (see table on right) of how things could pan
> out if the Bobcats decide that stockpiling first-round picks is the way to
> build the franchise. 
> The first eight players would all be part of larger deals that should, in
> each instance, land the Bobcats a future first-round pick and three million
> in cash. 
> The total salaries the Bobcats would have to assume would be $46.2 million
> in 2004, and $16.9 million in 2005. The Bobcats would receive $24 million in
> cash to offset the $46.2 million number. Because of the rules governing
> expansion teams, the Bobcats could then turn around and waive all eight
> players. Combine that with the last six players, all of whom have no
> guaranteed money due in 2004, and the Bobcats could walk away with eight
> extra first-round picks and all of their cap room if Johnson is willing to
> write a check for $30 million. 
> That's a pretty serious bargain. Would the Pistons, Wizards, Grizzlies,
> Celtics, Suns, Bulls, Warriors and Spurs be willing to send cash and picks
> the Bobcats' way? 
> Probably. The move is a slam dunk for the Pistons, Wizards and Spurs. The
> Pistons are trying to get far enough under the cap to either re-sign Mehmet
> Okur <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3547>  or to
> make a major play in the free-agent market. If they could move Atkins, the
> Pistons are looking at $10 million in cap space next summer. Ditto for the
> Wizards. They cleared about $5.9 million by moving Jahidi White to the Suns
> on Wednesday. If they can get Laettner off the books as well, the team is
> looking at $10 to $11 million in room. 
> The Spurs have the biggest incentive. San Antonio could theoretically clear
> around $15 million in cap room if they waived their free agents and got the
> Bobcats to take Bowen. That would give them enough to make a serious run at
> Kobe next summer. 
> The other teams don't experience such dramatic effects, but trading a pick
> and cash for the cap room still makes sense. The Grizzlies, by losing
> Outlaw, could get around $6 million under the cap. The Warriors could get
> nearly $7 million under by convincing the Bobcats to take Robinson. The Suns
> can move out of luxury-tax land if the Bobcats would take White off their
> hands. The Celtics could get more luxury-tax breathing room to sign a free
> agent with their mid-level exception. And the Bulls would get more room
> re-sign their own free agents. 
> This is just the tip of the iceberg. There will also be scenarios where a
> team might give the Bobcats a pick or cash not to select a player they had
> to leave unprotected. 
> Anyway you slice it, for the next eight months the Bobcats are in an
> enviable position. With a clean cap, an escalating cap (two-thirds this
> season, three-fourths in 2005, a full cap in 2006) the potential to horde a
> massive amount of first-round picks, a good first-round pick this season and
> no restrictions on how high they can pick in 2005, the Bobcats have a luxury
> that none of the other 29 teams in the league have ever had -- the ability
> to build a team from scratch under the new rules of the collective
> bargaining agreement. 
> Teams are still suffering from bad deals they made before the new CBA kicked
> in. Can the Bobcats learn from their mistakes and help out a few other
> franchises along the way? You'll have to wait seven months to find out.

>** --------- End Original Message ----------- **