Re: Please

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

At 09:05 AM 5/22/01 , Berry, Mark  S wrote:
>Watching the Lakers right now has solidified my thinking on this draft.
>Unless you have an impact big man, the rest is just window dressing. I watch
>the Lakers and Spurs and then think about our debates over Pau Gasol and
>Rodney White and realize we're missing the big picture, and the Celtics
>might be missing a golden opportunity. If Eddy Curry or Kwame Brown went to
>college, we very well could be talking about drafting the next Shaq or Tim
>Duncan when they finished their eligibility. The only reason there are so
>many questions about them is because they didn't go to college. That's the
>only reason a team like Washington might consider trading the pick. The
>Celtics need to take advantage of this and make their move. I'd give up
>Pierce or Walker for that top pick (although I know I'll get roasted for
>saying it). Is it a risk? Sure, but if there wasn't a little bit of risk
>involved, there'd be no chance of making the trade. 

Well, the terms you use disguise the true risk of this approach, which is
more than a little bit, as you put it. I don't really follow college and I
definitely don't follow high school, but it seems from Joe H.'s posts that
there's quite a few highly touted high schoolers that end up as mediocre
NBA prospects by their junior or senior year. Either or these guys could be
the next Shaq or Duncan, maybe, or they could be a total bust. The question
is, what are the chances of the Shaq/Duncan/Garnett type of scenario? 50%?
25%? 5%? If it's 50%, I think that could be worth it. 25%? Not so sure.
Only if a good chunk of that 75% still represents a pretty good, sub-Shaq
center rather than a total bust. 5%? No way. I don't know what the
percentage is, and I don't think any of us could from these mildly
enthusiastic third-hand scouting reports. Luckily Wallace doesn't make
trades based on this kind of info.

There is a precedent for this type of move though. Indiana traded a solid
performer and now All-Star caliber big man Antonio Davis for unproven high
schooler Bender. Jury's still out on that trade, in my mind. Walker and
Pierce are more valuable than Davis was at that time, I think, because
they're much younger with more upside. Davis wasn't even a starter back
then, though he was a respected and experienced big man. But these big guys
do sound better than Bender did, even though he was advertised as the next
Garnett. I can't imagine the Celtics doing it, though. I could see them
trying to move up in the draft by packaging the picks and a secondary
player (I actually think Battie probably has value) and taking bad salaries
back like NJ did with Van Horn. But trading Walker or Pierce for a high
schooler would likely mean giving up playoff hopes for the next two or
three years (at least) while he develops -- even assuming he's not a bust.
I can't imagine the Celtics doing that in their current situation, even if
it was the right long-term move, unfortunately.

Alex