Re: draft

[Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

Gene Kirkpatrick wrote:

>  But I would do extra time in
> certifying the guy from Fresno State as I would any high schooler
> whose ability to jump or reach the cabinet above the refrigerator is
> his greatest recommendation.

Good line, Gene. ;-)

I have nothing against drafting both Zach Randolph and Gerald
Wallace--both of whom ranked as prep prospects in every scouting report
I've seen ahead of last-year's NBA top-five pick and classmate Darius
Miles--but one thing they illustrate, in only a more general sense, is the
degree of risk  required in drafting relatively unknown, unproven
commoditites.

Both these kids will surely be drafted very high in this year's draft, but
let's not kid ourselves this will be based on memories of their high
school rather than NCAA creds. Like Corey Maggette at Duke, Zach Randolph
also failed to earn 20 minutes per game or win a starting job as a
freshman because of underdeveloped defensive skills. The starter who beat
him out, Andre Huston, is barely an NBA prospect. Similarly, Gerald
Wallace-- one guy who was at least as heralded as any prep player in this
year's banner 2001 class-- failed to average double figures for Bama. He
also shot a butt-ugly .174 3ptFG% (11-63) with a .568FT% performance from
the line.

In light of their struggles as NCAA rookies--where the competition
charitably seem at least 10% smaller and weaker than NBA pros--it is no
wonder it can take years for early entrants to make an impact in the NBA.

There are probably few people who do more scouting at the high school and
AAU level than Papile and Wallace.

So if these guys decide to pass on any of the available prep players in
the draft, I trust their comparative judgement. Relatively few prep stars
actually played in the McDonald's game for one reason or another, and
that's the only televised prep game that I'm aware of. I doubt any of us
really has anything but a pretend knowledge about these players (who knows
about Chris Monter for that matter). I'll post any outside scouting
reports I find online about these kids, but like everyone of you I'm in no
position to act like I know who is the next Bo Outlaw or whatever. It's
not like I cruise into Compton to check out Tyson Chandler's game whenever
I'm in the hood.

Again, I think Wallace, Papile and Obie won't reveal their true intentions
prior to the draft. We're talking about a poker-playing culture after all,
and no executive at any level is quite that stupid (well there's "the
leader of the free world" but that's another exception). But if there is
one thing I'd want to convey to Papile/Wallace as a Boston fan, it is to
stress my opinion that relatively few Boston fans care if we are over .500
next year as much as we care about developing a championship nucleus a few
more years down the road.

In this sense, I hope the Celtics front office will ignore Fleet center
attendance, the Moiso developmental fiasco, Obie and Wallace's job
security and all other compelling rationales to go with the "safe pick"
over the best available talent regardless of position. The upcoming draft
is important, because it might represent the last realistic-odds chance
the Celts have of adding a Pierce-Walker caliber player to a 17th
championship nucleus without giving up one of our own. You can tell by the
number of posts to this list how seriously true Boston Celtics fans are
focused on this day, and to me it has nothing to do with getting to the
40-win plateau right away. I'm counting on and believing in Papile and
Wallace's knowledge and instincts because I have no other choice. This is
exactly the kind of draft we'll look back on 5-years from now and ask a
lot of "what ifs..."

Joe

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