Re: Playoffs vs Lottery

[Ken Kokubo <Ken_Kokubo@harvard.edu>]

As I understand it we have a choice between....

#14 our pick and an 8th seed in the lottery
#11 Denver pick (protected anyway so ping pong balls are moot)

Or

#11 Denver
#10 Our pick and miniscule # of ping pong balls

Basically, the Pacers, C's, and Denver are the only teams in the .400-.500 
range right now and it doesn't look like another team will affect this 
grouping so one of the 2 above scenarios should come true.

I'd rather make the playoffs. I know we got Peirce at 10, but how often is 
10 the cutoff rather than just good luck/evaluation and picking a gem 
anywhere. I think the latter happens more frequently. Name a year recently 
when 2 picks were combined for anything above the 6th pick or 2 picks were 
combined for an impact player...I can think of Nowitzki but this worked 
against (IMO) the team trading the 2 picks (Traylor #6 for Dirk #9 and ???)!

 From Duncan onward I'll never believe the ping pong balls will bring 
goodwill to the leprechaun!

Basically, I'm saying they have just as much chance (or more likely not) of 
getting a superstar in either scenario.

That's my semi-statistically enhanced, voodoo economics, objective view of 
the situation :^) I really believe it is far more important for a young 
team building some serious chemistry and maturing slowly to reach this 
major milestone (to them only maybe) and use it as incentive next year to 
push it further.