Playoffs vs Lottery

["Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@worldnet.att.net>]

I have to say that I'm excited to see that the Celts will in all likelihood
exceed my prediction this year - for the first time in a while - of 34 wins.
(Of course it could never have happened without the departure of that key
individual mid-season). Some have questioned about whether we should be
similarly excited about potentially making the playoffs at the 8 spot. The
reasoning for this perspective is simple: making the playoffs would cost us
a shot at the lottery and somewhere between 4-5 spots in the picking order
even if we didn't win the lottery. Furthermore, the team would make the
playoffs with a sub-.500 record and most likely be eliminated in three
straight.

These are compelling arguments but I think there are even more compelling
arguments for the value of making the playoffs even given all the reasons
stated above.

Reason #1 for wanting to make the playoffs is very simple: Paul Pierce.
You've been hearing about whether or not Vince Carter will re-sign in
Toronto - well, I've got news, Pierce will have to make that decision about
Boston too. There are a lot of places that have better weather and urban
amenities so a key to keeping Pierce in Boston is providing him with some
basketball incentives. Playing here for three years without making the
playoffs is not the recipe for keeping a budding star on-board. The
excitement of the playoffs and the progress that making the playoffs
represents may well be a key factor in retaining Pierce's services.

Reason #2 to root for the playoffs: making the playoffs has benefits in
terms of league recognition. In other words it not only helps off-set
'Vancouver-itis' ("I gotta get out of here because it's the equivalent of
NBA-Siberia") but it also raises the value of your players in the estimation
of the rest of the league. NBATalk has a feature called MVP watch that
neatly illustrates this effect. They claim that Pierce cannot be a candidate
for MVP because his team is lousy, otherwise they'd be force to consider
players who put up great stats on other lousy teams such as Jamison or
Abdur-Rahim. The overall point is that until you pass certain markers of
team success your players' value will always be discounted in the NBA. So if
you're looking forward to post-season improvement via trades making the
playoffs adds luster to the players you have to offer because they are now
part of a playoff quality outfit.

Reason #3: making the playoffs can also help focus players on what is
important for *team* success. There is no guarantee of course, but tasting
the playoffs might well be the difference between some very talented players
who went on to achieve success and others who didn't. I know it is heresy
now to suggest that Jordan was ever destined for anything but success, but
is it really a coincidence that his highest scoring playoff game came in one
of his first playoff appearances - at 8th seed no less. (This is not to
discount other very important factors such as coaching and teammates). It is
my belief that the Pistons were also brought together as a team in part
through the experience of the playoffs. Again, this is not guaranteed, but
if your players' have a burning desire to win, what better way to channel
that desire than by the teasing torture of being invited to the dance only
to be sent home early? It sure provides a better set of incentives than
all-star appearances.

It may be objected that these arguments are invalid because the Cs are not a
true playoff caliber team since they will have a record below .500 and are
only in the running due to the inadequacies of the East in general and of
Isiah Thomas in particular. These issues needs to be addressed. I think most
people would concede that the Celts have played like a different team since
the mid-season quitting of the previous coach. The record bears this out:
they are 21-16 after beginning the year at 12-26. So while the team as a
whole is below .500 the team that we've watched perform for the last 37
games (and the team that may well make the playoffs) is above .500. This is
more than simply semantics because most importantly the players behave as if
THEY believe it were true: they've been presented a new lease on life and
they are making the most of it, even to the point of overcoming the large
hole the previous coach helped them dig. Overcoming such adversity
highlights rather than detracts from the value of their accomplishments and
therefore strengthens the points made above. Prior to mid-season people
dismissed the Celts as lousy; now we know which part of the team was lousy
(coaching) and which part was being retarded from attaining its full
potential (players). If this lesson were further underscored by making the
playoffs it would strengthen all three of the reasons marshaled above.

A second consideration to entertain when weighing the two sets of arguments
is how much difference in the selection order 4-5 positions will make. Some
have made the argument that truly great players do not need time to achieve
success but can do it right out of college. This is true, but those truly
great players will not be available at either 10 or at 14 so such an
argument is invalid if used to argue against making the playoffs. The case
MAY be different if we were talking about 1, 2, or 3 versus 15, but we'd
have to win the lottery for that to be relevant and we all know from bitter
past experience not to allow team strategy to be held hostage by such vague
contingencies. In any case, this look as if it will be a deep draft but not
one with a consensus franchise player pick.

To sum up, if the choice is between the 10th or 11th pick and the 14th pick
then in my mind the choice really boils down to the following: do you
provide a foundation for re-signing Paul Pierce and building around him for
the next 10+ years or do you hope that the player you pick at the 10 spot is
so significantly better than those available at 14 that it will alter
Pierce's estimation of potential future success in Boston despite having
experienced years of failure? As I see it, even if Pierce maintains only 80%
of the pace he's been on for the last two weeks then HE is the future of the
Celtics and every effort should be made to ensure his re-signing. By making
the playoffs we can make that re-signing more rather than less likely. At
the same time such an experience would also maximize the confidence (and
trade value) of Paul's teammates. Exposure to the playoffs is also more
likely (far moreso than a jump from 14 to 10 in the draft) to focus Paul and
his teammates on what is truly important in order to be a member of a
successful TEAM.

Cheers - Tom Murphy