Re: predicting success in the NBA

[Kestutis.Kveraga@dartmouth.edu (Kestutis Kveraga)]

--- You wrote:
Well, another reason why 3-pointers are harder than 12 footers is because
small accuracy errors get compounded over larger distances. If your shot is
a degree off to the left, you might be only an inch off on your 12 footer
and still make it, but 2 inches off on your 3-pointer and have it clang off
the rim. 
--- end of quote ---

Exactly.

--- You wrote:
 Atlanta's Superman test, for instance,
where they dunk repeatedly until they run out of gas. Isn't it obvious that
being really tall (in the vertical reach sense) is a huge advantage here?
--- end of quote ---

Yeah, I had same thought when I read about it, but perhaps they are testing
strengh-endurance for similar players or something? I.e., say two players of
the same reach/height/wingspan etc. can both jump a maximum of 40", but the
first one can clear, say, 30" on 20 consecutive attempts, while the second one
starts missing the 30-inch mark after 5 attempts, which would cause him to
start failing his dunk attempts sooner.  

--- You wrote:
Getting the data for this type of study could be difficult too. Unless
you're perpetually at the top of the lottery, you're not going to have
access to measurements of current superstars who were probably the best
prospects in their draft, and I don't see the Clippers going to the effort
to do this. It would be interesting to try to sift through the NBA combine
data for similar purposes though.
--- end of quote ---

I think they would have to make the testing mandatory at the league level, and
the results available to all teams to even the playing field.  
Kestas