Re: predicting success in the NBA

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

At 03:41 PM 6/21/01 , Kestutis Kveraga wrote:
>Free (unguarded) shooting accuracy  statistically
>depends on the % of available muscle power necessary to send the ball to the
>rim (other things being equal). The more of your available power you have
>apply, the greater the error in the output. I won't get into the details
of it,
>but it has to do with the order in which motor neurons are recruited to
produce
>movement, among other things. That's why slow movements are more accurate
than
>fast movements, and that's why half-court shots are harder to make than
>3-pointers, which in turn are harder than 12-footers, which in turn are
harder
>than lay-ins (when all are equally practiced). Pierce, besides being highly
>practiced, is also undoubtedly very coordinated and strong, and it wouldn't
>surprise me in the least if he did well on the said test. 

Well, another reason why 3-pointers are harder than 12 footers is because
small accuracy errors get compounded over larger distances. If your shot is
a degree off to the left, you might be only an inch off on your 12 footer
and still make it, but 2 inches off on your 3-pointer and have it clang off
the rim. (These numbers are illustrative and not necessarily accurate
mathematically). 

>If the chances of drafting the best available player were improved to, say
60%,
>instead of 50% by the 'seat-of-the-pants' methods, would it be worth it? I
>think so, the benefits of selecting the BPA 20% more often would accrue over
>time, giving the teams that use it a significant advantage....

I would agree that there has to be some possible improvement through better
measurement and analysis. Right now it does seem like many teams have
standard tests that they put all their candidate picks through, but some
don't seem that well thought out. Atlanta's Superman test, for instance,
where they dunk repeatedly until they run out of gas. Isn't it obvious that
being really tall (in the vertical reach sense) is a huge advantage here?
Can you really compare small forwards to centers here? Maybe Atlanta is
using this in a smarter way than ESPN Insider interpreted it several days
ago: basically, "Shane Battier is more athletic than Jason Richardson, but
less athletic than Diop." The next thing you know, some 8' tall guy who can
barely jump but doesn't need to for him to dunk will score 300 on the test
when his arms finally get too tired to raise over his head, and he'll be
declared "most athletic" of the draft.

Getting the data for this type of study could be difficult too. Unless
you're perpetually at the top of the lottery, you're not going to have
access to measurements of current superstars who were probably the best
prospects in their draft, and I don't see the Clippers going to the effort
to do this. It would be interesting to try to sift through the NBA combine
data for similar purposes though.

Alex