In pursuit of #17 (LONG)

[Mark Piotrowski <markp@edu15.coe.ufl.edu>]

Let me start with the things i think we can all agree on:

1.  We want the Celtics to hoist the 17th banner to the rafters.  and 
#18 and #19.... and SOON!

2.  Barring injury, for at least the 4 years the NBA championship 
goes through LA.*

3.  The Celtics as currently constituted will not win their 17th 
title, and therefore must -- at some point -- make some changes to 
accomplish #1.

(* this is not to say that i think LA can't be beat -- i very much 
think they can -- but Kobe and Shaq show no signs of letting up and i 
think they will be able to reload each years with players like Mitch 
Richmond taking less to try and win a ring.  I don't think they are 
as invincible as their playoff run made them look.  I think the 
Sacramento series was much closer than it looks in retrospect, a 4-0 
sweep.  And i think that a healthy Philly gives LA a run for the 
title -- they were in most games until the final minutes even with 
Iverson, Snow, Lynch, McKie and Mutombo hurt to various degrees.)

Exactly what changes need to be made, of course, is the $64 million 
dollar question (or however much we paid Pitino, ha ha).

I believe -- as i hope that Wallace does -- that we have to have a 
plan.  We have to know how we are going to change the team to win 
#17, then set out to accomplish that plan.  Any unforseen 
opportunities (i.e. winning the lottery, the NBA taking pity on us 
and just giving us #17, etc.) can be used to alter the plan, but 
without a plan we will NEVER win #17.

Of course any good plan should have a "Plan A" and a "Plan B" (heck 
even preferably a "Plan C").  Here's my Plan A (I'll post plan B & C 
in a week or so) for WINNING #17:

I.  BUILDING A CHAMPION

It's called building a championship team b/c you have to do just that 
build it.  You can't put all your eggs in one basket.  You have to do 
all the little things along the way to build the team.

Look at this year's finalists.  Philly and LA both built their team 
through (1) drafting well (PHI:  Iverson, Stackhouse, Van Horn; LA: 
Fisher, Eddie Jones, Vlade Divac) (2) trading well (PHI: Stackhouse 
for Ratliff, Ratliff/Kukoc for Mutombo; LA: Divac for Bryant, Lynch & 
others for capspace) and (3) signing key Free Agents (PHI: Snow, 
Lynch; LA: Shaq, Ho. Grant, Fox).

I like what the C's did in the draft b/c they did what both LA & 
Philly did:  took the best players available -- even if they play the 
same position as current starters.  This allowed them to do #2 and #3 
above (make trades and free up capspace to fill holes through FA). 
Wallace seems to get this and looks to be building value on our 
roster -- something that seems to have escaped Pitino and ML Carr.

Looking at the current makeup of the C's and our cap numbers, i think 
we should shoot for making our move in one of 2 windows of 
opportunity:  The first being 2002-03 when Kenny comes off the books 
and the second being in 2004-05 when Antoine, Vitaly and our 3 #1's 
this year become free agents (as do all the HS kids in this draft!).

So, i think we should look at personnel moves to maximize our 
opportunity with an eye toward  those 2 windows.  IMO, that is how 
we're going to land a stud FA -- by planning for a specific year, not 
having the ubiquitous "capspace" every year.  Look at who becomes a 
FA what year and plan for having capspace THAT YEAR.  Does anyone 
really think that it was a fluke that LA landed Shaq, Orlando Hill & 
McGrady, etc.  I think they planned to get them, maximized their 
chances and went out and got them.

It seems to me the real trick is to try and maintain the core, the 
quality of your team while picking up future flexibilty.  Ergo, no 
trading Walker, Pierce or picks just to get space.  Because those 
things (all-stars Pierce, Walker & Kendrick Brown (hee,hee)) are 
going to be what makes coming to Boston attractive to a free agent. 
Boston doesn't have "nice" weather like Orlando, Miami or LA (i say 
"nice" b/c i live in Florida and i don't call this nice...but that's 
a story for the Weather Channel list).  Boston is not NYC or LA or 
Chicago, it's a nice town (having lived there for 2 years) but not a 
great one.  These of course are things the Celtics can't control.

The 2 things they can control is (1) having enough $$ to lure a FA 
(realistically i think you plan to add one FA at the max -- no more 
-- and have enough to add some "pieces" like a Snow or a Fox) and (2) 
having a good enough team that he will want to come to Boston.


PLAN A:  1st Window -- 2002-03

Don't worry about next year.  All we get is Wallah's 3 million or so 
off the cap.  And it's a weak FA class, especially for PF & C:  Vince 
Carter, Mike Bibby, Nowitzki, Raef LaFrentz.  The only one who might 
radically change the trajectory of the team is Carter.

So we plan for 2002-03.  Here's the 3 things to do this offseason:

A.  Draft well.  Take BPA and build value in the team.  Keep all 3 
picks to maximize window #2 (all 3 contracts will expire at same 
time). Check. Check.  Check.

B.  ONLY sign a FA if they are willing to sign a 2 year deal. 
Otherwise you blow the space for 2002-03.  We currently have 12 
players under contract so we could sign at max 3 (if we stash 3 
players on the IR).  I would suggest 1 or 2, not 3.  My suggestions 
(in order of preference):

1.  Nazr Mohammed -- i think he's on the brink of a Jermaine 
O'Neal-like breakout, rather than a Brad Miller flash-in-the-pan. 
Remember that Larry Brown kept raving about Nazr and i seem to 
remember hearing Atlanta demanded he be part of the Mutomob deal.  i 
doubt he'll come for just a 2 year deal, but if we could lure him 
with wink-wink deal, do it.
2.  Bryant Stith -- I REALLY wish we could keep Stith for his 
leadership.  But i don't think he will only take a 2 year deal either.
3.  Jerome Williams -- i think our 2 most glaring needs are Center 
and a Jerome Williams/Bo Outlaw type to do the dirty work.  i don't 
think there is any chance he'd take a 2 year deal, looks to be going 
to Philly.
4.  Don Reid -- we need more rebounding.  I don't think the Magic 
will resign him.
5.  Gary Trent -- see #4
6.  Joe Kleine -- just seeing if you're still paying attention.
7.  Michael Smith -- had some legal problems in Wash, don't think 
they'll resign him.
8.  Milt Palacio -- i don't think we'll get #1-7 and if we only 
resign Miracle, i'm totally fine with that.  i think PG is less of a 
priority than PF/C b/c Walker will play 15 min a game there.  I Milt 
gets a better deal, sign Chris Herren.
9.  Donnel Harvey (PF) -- I think he's a FA, but can't confirm that. 
I think he was cut by Dallas after the trade w/ Washington.  He left 
Florida a year or two too early.  I think if he had stayed he'd be a 
top 5 pick next year.  He is a monster physically, but has a very raw 
game.

C.  Trade Eric Williams, Tony Battie & a resigned Adrian Griffin to 
Charlotte for Derrick Coleman.

Now i know what you're saying, "Derrick @#$%^ing Coleman"?!?  yes. 
Derrick Coleman.  If you want capspace in 2002-03 then you have to 
trade players with later exp. dates for that year.  You can't trade 
Williams and Battie for Jason Kidd, Steve Smith, or Gary Patton, so 
this is our option.

Right now i think Charlotte would trade Derrick Coleman for ME (a 5' 
10" overweight white guy), so EWill, Batgirl & Griffin are definitely 
a step up.  Trading Kenny Anderson for Derrick Coleman does nothing 
for our capspace in 2002-03.  Its a lateral move, and we've had 10 
years of lateral moves.

Yes there is a reason Charlotte would trade Coleman for anything, 
there are risks.  I don't think Coleman will take us to the promise 
land but here are 4 positives about this "hold-your-nose" trade.

1.  We don't give up Walker, Pierce, Kenny's 2002-03 capspace or any 
of our #1 picks.
2.  Coleman -- when he wants to -- CAN play. let us not forget that. 
He can get 10 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assts. a night if he puts his 
mind to it.  I know, i know, that is rare, but we are desperate for 
rebounding help (only NJ (b/c of injuries), Dallas (surprisingly) and 
Chicago (b/c of total ineptitude) were worse on the boards last 
year).  Coleman can probably get one more contract.  He has to show 
that he can still bring it to trick the next team into signing him.
3.  I believe, the last time Coleman or Anderson made the All Star 
team they were both NJ Nets together.  maybe they can rekindle the 
magic.
4.  If Coleman acts up, you sit him down and never play him (or waive 
him and eat the contract).  Plain and simple.  You tell him that when 
he gets to Logan Airport. It worked for Charlotte.  The longest you 
have to do that is 2 years.  The compartive risk is pretty low.  If 
we reach that worst case scenario, you give up EWill's 10 minutes and 
Battie's (maybe) 13 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks -- but you have to 
believe Moiso can make up at least 1/2 those numbers if worse comes 
to worse.
5.  Most importantly, it puts us something like 16-20 million under 
the cap for 2002-03 (Kenny, Coleman, R. Brown & Moiso's option (if 
needed)).

Lineup next season:

1.  Kenny Anderson
2.  Paul Pierce
3.  Antoine Walker
4.  Derrick Coleman
5.  Vitaly Potapenko

Bench:
Joe Johnson
Mark Blount
Randy Brown
Walter McCarty
Joe Forte
Jerome Moiso
Kedrick Brown
2001 Free Agent

Assuming Randy Brown retires after this season (but still counts on 
our cap till 2002-03) here's our roster for 2002-03

1.  Kenny Anderson
2.  Paul Pierce
3.  Antoine Walker
4.  Derrick Coleman
5.  Vitaly Potapenko

Bench:
Joe Johnson
Joe Forte
Jerome Moiso
Kedrick Brown
2001 Free Agent
2002 #1 pick
2002 Free Agent (Malik Rose? Anthony Carter? Keon Clark? Andrew DeClerq?)

I predict we make the playoffs, Pierce and Walker are All Stars, and 
Joe Johnson is on the verge of breaking out (like McGrady before he 
left Toronto).  Here's how the plan finishes with the offseason of 
2002-03:

A.  SIGN TIM DUNCAN.

Is it a long shot?  Maybe, maybe not.  I think SA will be in shambles 
by then & Duncan will exercise his contract option.  Coming to the 
Eastern Conf. means only seeing Shaq 2x a year.  Coming to the C's 
means he would get to play alongside All-Stars Pierce & Walker.  I 
think that this will be one of his best chances to go from one winner 
to another.  We would also be able to offer something good in return 
if it comes to a sign-and-trade.

(Plan B.  Sign Jermaine O'Neal, Elton Brand, Andre Miller, Shawn 
Marion or Lamar Odom.  Then sign Ervin Johnson)

Introducing the 2003-04 Boston Celtics:

1.  Joe Forte
2.  Joe Johnson
3.  Paul Pierce
4.  Antoine Walker
5.  Tim Duncan

Kedrick Brown
Jerome Moiso
Vitaly Potapenko
2001 Free Agent
2002 #1 pick
2002 Free Agent
2003 #1 pick

(Plan B:

1.  Joe Forte
2.  Joe Johnson
3.  Paul Pierce
4.  Antoine Walker
5.  Jermaine O'Neal

Kedrick Brown
Jerome Moiso
Vitaly Potapenko
2001 Free Agent
2002 #1 pick
2002 Free Agent
2003 #1 pick)

Offseason 2003-04:  HOLD CHAMPIONSHIP RALLY IN GOVERNMENT SQUARE 
PLAZA & RAISE CHAMPIONSHIP BANNER #17 TO THE FLEET CENTER RAFTERS!

Dare to dream, dare to win!

thanks for listening,
mark piotrowski
holding out hope in Gainesville, FL