RE: The answer on the Philly pick

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

At 01:14 PM 8/13/01, Berry, Mark  S wrote:
>Well, Shira's use of the word "automatically" made me think it goes to the
>Celts the first time it isn't in the lottery.

That would be my interpretation too. Of course, our own Insider can add it 
to his next list of questions for Wallace :)

>Your point about Moiso is well taken, but I doubt at any point that he'd be
>considered all that overpaid. He's on a short rookie contract. But if you're
>giving him up for a pick in the last five of the first round, all you're
>doing is adding another rookie with a guaranteed three-year contract. It's a
>nothing trade in terms of impact, unless they follow it up with something
>more significant.

The financial implications would seem to be minor, but then again we don't 
really know where the luxury tax is going to be. Your math and my math seem 
to have different conclusions; I wouldn't mind seeing where your 
projections come from. I can dig up my own off the list archives, I think. 
I definitely think it would have been a poor trade if there wasn't a pick 
involved.

I don't disregard the first round pick the way you do though. The way the 
luxury tax is acting like a hard cap, you're going to need cheap role 
players to fill out your roster. Most likely, even with a good draft, you 
may only get a bench player or a project center, but that's worth 
something; the question is whether it will end up being a better gamble 
than keeping Moiso. If we look two years down the road and Moiso is out of 
the league, then anything we get out of the trade was a good result. On the 
other hand, if he's Larry Brown's next super role player, an Eric Snow type 
player at the power forward position, then Wallace is going to look pretty 
dumb.

Personally I'm not a big fan of the trade just because I was still thinking 
optimistically about Moiso, partially because O'Brien sounded like he still 
had some confidence in him. But the trade seems to indicate the opposite. 
In addition, I think we're sufficiently ignorant about the true luxury tax 
situation that it's hard to evaluate the trade fairly. I don't think it's 
likely to be a big deal either way though.

>This year's draft was a huge exception in terms of depth, and even at that
>there are only two names that really excite me on that list-Tony Parker and
>Loren Woods. I see a lot of nobodies on that list. Tinsley and Cook...
>maybe. But Leo Papile said Khalid El-Amin would have been better than any of
>those guys, and we could have had him for next to nothing... remember that
>"extra first-round pick" quote? And we didn't sign him.

Pitino gets ridiculed for his comments about players like Bowen and 
DeClercq, but Papile blows him away with his exaggerations. He declared 
Garth Joseph a 15 year player in the league. He used the same language with 
Forte; I hope it's not a bad omen.

Alex