RE: The answer on the Philly pick

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@BATTELLE.ORG>]

Well, Shira's use of the word "automatically" made me think it goes to the
Celts the first time it isn't in the lottery.

Your point about Moiso is well taken, but I doubt at any point that he'd be
considered all that overpaid. He's on a short rookie contract. But if you're
giving him up for a pick in the last five of the first round, all you're
doing is adding another rookie with a guaranteed three-year contract. It's a
nothing trade in terms of impact, unless they follow it up with something
more significant.

This year's draft was a huge exception in terms of depth, and even at that
there are only two names that really excite me on that list-Tony Parker and
Loren Woods. I see a lot of nobodies on that list. Tinsley and Cook...
maybe. But Leo Papile said Khalid El-Amin would have been better than any of
those guys, and we could have had him for next to nothing... remember that
"extra first-round pick" quote? And we didn't sign him.

Mark

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	j.hironaka [mailto:j.hironaka@unesco.org] 
Sent:	Monday, August 13, 2001 12:00 PM
To:	Berry, Mark  S; celtics@igtc.com
Subject:	Re: The answer on the Philly pick

At 10:56 13/08/01 -0400, you wrote:
> From the MSNBC piece by Shira Springer...
>
>"...The third component of the deal was a first-round pick available as
>early as 2003 and protected through the lottery until 2007. But it's
>virtually assumed that Philadelphia will not drop to the lottery in the
>forseeable future, so the pick in all likelihood automatically would fall
to
>the Celtics in 2003. . . ."
>
>----end---
>
>This certainly seems to answer the question about the pick. Barring an
>Iverson car crash with Mutombo riding shotgun, it sounds like the Celts
will
>automatically get the Sixers' pick this year. That figures to be somewhere
>in the late 20s. Let's hope they use McLeod's expiring contract to work
>another deal; otherwise, this trade does nothing but pad the pocketbook.

Mark, it almosts sound like Philly holds the option on when this first 
round pick can be exercised by Boston (although then it would make 
zero-sense that it should be lotto protected).

The Shira Springer snippet is not clear at all. Maybe even she's confused 
about how this pick works.

My guess is that it is still Boston's option when to use the pick, but 
Springer assumes Philly (the aging Mutombo and all) will be successful 
indefinitely and so Boston is sure to cash in the pick sooner. I hope so.

But let's assume, for lack of concrete info, that Philly can force Boston 
to exercise the pick as soon as next year (or that Boston won't be patient 
enough to ride the pick out).

For what little it is worth, NBADraft.net (a mock draft site) rates the 
following college players outside their list of current "top-30" prospects 
for 2002 (this, of course, is around where the Philly pick will more or 
less fall if they get back to the finals):

Casey Jacobson (Stanford), Tayshawn Prince (Kentucky), Udonis Haslem 
(Florida), Tito Maddox (Fresno), Dan Gadzuric and Jason Kapono (UCLA), 
Vincent Yarbrough (Tennessee).

Strange. The first two names on the list--Jacobson and Prince--could quite 
easily be among the finalists for NCAA Player of Year honors. If you love 
Wally World in the new zone rules, then the 6-6 Jacobson might as well be 
the second coming of Jerry West by comparison. For what its worth.

Moiso was a very worrisome player, to the degree that the consensus view on 
him could shift at any moment from that of an exciting developmental 
prospect to a 23-year-old, overpaid backup center giving a weak big man 
team miniscule production.

The thing I've noted before is age. Moiso is three years older than Joe 
Johnson (they were both born in June three years apart). To me he's been 
playing at the highest D1 level and on the international circuit with 
France for awhile, despite the excuses you hear about his inexperience.

Circumstances gave Boston a chance at another first round pick and so they 
took it. After the trade,  clearly I doubt any of us rushed to the office 
water cooler to offer colleagues "high fives, front and back, baby" or 
whatever.

But I think in this case, you just have to have faith that any decision to 
give up on an untested 7-foot lottery pick is rarely made casually. Chris 
Wallace knew exactly what he had in Moiso. If there were any glimmer of 
hope, he'd still be with us.

Joe

p.s. I'll note one other thing, regarding the value of a late first round 
pick versus a bust lottery pick.

Although the 2001 draft was atypical, had Boston owned Philly's pick this 
year they would have had the option of upgrading Moiso's 1.5 ppg 
contribution with the first choice among the following mix of college and 
foreign players:

Point guards:
Jamaal Tinsley, Tony Parker, Omar Cook (plus Will Solomon, Kenny Saterfield)

Bigmen:
Loren Woods, Samuel Dalembert, Alvin Jones, Ousmane Cisse, Ken Johnson 
(plus Antonis Fotis, Alton Ford,  Jarron Collins, Brian Scalabrine, Eric 
Chenowith)

Wings:
Jeff Trepagnier, Trenton Hassell, Jamison Brewer, Gilbert Arenas, Damone 
Brown, Terrence Morris, Sean Lampley

-------