Re: BSG SAYS C'S ARE DRAFTING...

[Dan Forant <dforant1@nycap.rr.com>]

In other words, the Celtics wasted a few years rebuilding with dumb moves
(Pierce fell into their laps) so expect more this season like the last.
There's nothing in the draft to turn this team around. 

Dan

At 07:14 PM 6/26/00 -0400, you wrote:
>http://home.digitalcity.com/boston/sportsguy/main.dci?page=13celts00
>
>CELTICS CHRONICLES
>How come only one person can figure out what Pitino and the Celts have
>planned for the draft this week?
>
>I rarely toot my own horn here, so indulge me... apparently I'm the only
>person on the planet who knows what Rick Pitino and the Celtics plan on
>doing this week. 
>
>That includes NBA experts like Pete Vescey, Andy Katz, Marty Blake,
>Mitch Lawrence, Jackie MacMullan, David Aldridge, Howie Feltersnatch.
>That includes Chris Monter, the ubiquitous draft guru who writes for 35
>different publications and pumps out mock drafts more frequently than
>Shawn Kemp cleans out his vas deferens. That includes all the
>overmatched morons in the Boston media, like Larry Bird's personal PR
>agent (Peter May), the president of the Antoine Fan Club (Mike Holley),
>Davy Crockett (Steve Bulpett) and the chaffeur for the Rick Pitino
>Bandwagon (Bill Reynolds). That includes every web journalist and
>message board poster who try to gain credibility on the 'Net by starting
>up rumors like "According to one of my sources, the Celts love Jerome
>Moiso!!!" and then cross their fingers hoping it will come true. That
>includes the very nice people at SportsTalk.com who inadvertently
>regurgitate more rumors than AJ Benza. 
>
>Most of all, that includes you, the home reader. Not one person has
>e-mailed me with the correct blueprint for the C's draft this week. I'm
>a little disappointed in all of you... well, at least the six people who
>still care about the Celtics.
>
>Without further ado, I'm grabbing your hand and walking with you across
>Causeway Street as we attempt to buy you a clue. I'm not telling you
>what the Celtics will do this week as much as WHY they will do it, in
>six easy steps:
>
>STEP A: Barring a miracle, this is Rick Pitino's last year
>Nobody mentions this! Why has this simple fact slipped by everybody who
>follows the Celtics and/or the NBA???? Hell, Pitino even said it himself
>last spring; if things don't improve for the Celts -- and I mean
>improve, drastically, in a "42 wins and we're frisky and we made the 1st
>round of the playoffs and we even gave somebody a scare" kinda way --
>Rick Pitino will be bounced from the Celtics organization.
>
>So put yourself in Coach P's shoes and say the following two paragraphs
>in a Hubie Brown voice just to drive the point home:
>
>You're Rick Pitino. You lost out on Tim Duncan three years ago, then you
>turned the #3 and #6 picks of the '97 Draft into Kenny Anderson and
>Danny Fortson. You're paying $50 million over the next five years to
>Tony Battie and Vitaly Potapenko; because of that, you can't wiggle
>under the cap enough to entice a second-tier marquee free agent like
>Austin Croshere or Jalen Rose. You would love to trade your best player
>-- Antoine Walker -- but you can't get equal value for him. Your only
>player with real trade value -- Paul Pierce -- is also the only
>untouchable player on your team. You're shelling out $10 million next
>season to four small forwards -- Eric Williams, Greg Minor, Cal Cheaney
>and Walter McCarty -- who collectively might be the worst quartet since
>Quiet Riot stopped touring. Your two point guards -- Kenny Anderson and
>Dana Barros -- peaked about five years ago. You're trying to trade a
>6-foot-6 power forward -- Fortson -- who only matches up well against
>9-10 teams in the league. 
>
>Now it's gut-check time. You need an impact player, someone who can step
>in right away and improve your team. Unfortunately, you're drafting at
>#11. You're looking for an impact player in a draft full of checkered
>talents, 19-year-olds and guys with untapped potential. One more lousy
>year and the fans will drive you out of Boston.
>
>So if you're Rick Pitino... what do you do?
>
>STEP B: You draft somebody who will help right away
>You may not realize this, but the Celtics would have won 42-45 games
>last season if they could have replaced Dana Barros and Walter McCarty
>with two players: 
>
>--1. A swingman who could sink an open jumpshot. As I recounted in
>detail last March, this team lost at least a half-dozen games in the
>final three minutes because they were playing 4-on-5 down the stretch;
>teams were just ignoring Williams/Cheaney/Griffin/McCarty and
>double-teaming Pierce or Walker during every crucial possession. 
>
>--2. A backup point guard who could actually run the team and guard
>somebody. Remember, Dana Barros retired two tears ago and never told
>anybody. That's why the Alvin Williams deal was defensible on paper, or
>at least until you actually saw Alvin Williams play (yikes). 
>
>Can they find one of these players in the draft at #11? Absolutely.
>Which leads us to...
>
>STEP C: You don't draft somebody with a high upside.
>Not when you're a lame-duck coach who's desperately trying to turn this
>team around in the next four months. 
>
>
>(NOTE: THIS IS THE CRUCIAL SECTION OF THIS WHOLE COLUMN!!!! PAY
>ATTENTION!!!)
>
>If Rick Pitino had been hired last week, it's a completely different
>draft for the Celts. Instead of looking for a quick-fix guy, Boston
>would be targeting players with the biggest UPPPPPPPsides. Looking at
>the Celts and what might be available at #11, here's a list of guys they
>should take:
>
>* Iakovos Tsakalidis -- Aka, the 7-foot-2 Greek Guy. He'd go top-five if
>his contract status wasn't so dicey.
>
>* DeMarr Johnson -- 6-foot-9, can play three positions, one of the most
>talented players in the draft, would fit in beautifully with Pierce and
>Walker down the road.
>
>* Joel Pryzbilla -- Seven-footer, 20 years old, might turn into a
>legitimate center.
>
>* Jamal Crawford, Keyon Dooling -- Two taller point guards, both
>talented, both skilled offensively, both able to play both guard
>positions (just what the Celts were looking for with Alvin Williams
>before they realized belatedly that he stunk).
>
>* Olumide Oyedeji -- Aka, The Nigerian Guy. I don't know anything about
>him other than he's a center prospect and he climbed into the Top 12. 
>
>Instead -- since Pitino knows that this will be his do-or-die season --
>the Celts will be drafting somebody from this group of more polished
>players:
>
>* Courtney Alexander -- The logical pick if he's there. Alexander allows
>the Celts to play Pierce at the 3-spot AND gives them someone who can
>score points. So what if there are character questions about him? You
>roll the dice, hope it works out... and if it doesn't, that's the next
>coach's problem.
>
>* Quentin Richardson -- The most intriguing prospect for Boston even
>though he doesn't have a position; the Celts could probably play him
>alongside Walker and Pierce and get away with it as long as he was
>rebounding and making open jumpers. Other than Alexander, he's the only
>player in this group that I could see scoring 15-16 points per game next
>season. Very unique player -- part Corliss Williamson and part Isaiah
>Rider. Not sure if I like him or not.
>
>* Mateen Cleeves -- Love him or hate him, he'd be a vast improvement
>over Dana Barros. Still, there's no way he should go ahead of somebody
>like Crawford or Dooling. If the Celts take Cleaves, you KNOW Pitino has
>his bags packed.
>
>* Mo Peterson -- Swingman who would instantly give the 3-spot a boost.
>Would you rather watch him or McCarty and Williams next year?
>
>* Jerome Moiso -- 6-foot-11, similar game to the Battman. I don't see
>how he would find playing time ahead of Potapenko, Battman or Fortson...
>but he's a possibility if Fortson leaves.
>
>* Dooling or Crawford -- Only if they're convinced that one of these
>guys could play next season... and that's a long shot. They're floating
>"We love Kenyon Dooling" vibes to the media the same way they floated
>those "We're not interested in Ron Mercer" vibes three years ago. Don't
>buy it.
>
>Two more variables here:
>
>STEP D: What veteran free agent will the Celts be bringing in?
>Let's say Pitino plans to make a run at Mark Jackson as his new backup
>point guard, one of his favorite guys. If that's the case, the Celts
>obviously won't be taking Crawford, Cleaves, Dooling or anyone else. If
>they plan on clearing cap space to make a run at Derek Anderson, look
>for them to grab a point guard -- there's no way Coach P will endure
>another season of Kenny/Dana.
>
>STEP E: Will the Celtics make a draft-day trade?
>This one scares me, and I'll tell you why...
>
>Remember when Mike Ditka dealt away the whole Saints draft AND their #1
>in 2000 for Ricky Williams? It happened because Ditka knew he needed to
>make a drastic move to change his fate; he didn't have the best
>interests of Saints fans in mind, he was thinking about himself. If it
>worked out, he looked like a genius. If it didn't work out, the worst
>thing that could happen was that he would get fired (with pay, of
>course).
>
>And Pitino's right there. He needs to improve this team RIGHT NOW.
>There's nobody in the #11 range who would start for him next season
>(with the possible exception of Courtney Alexander). None of the big
>prospects are polished enough to take time away from Potapenko and
>Battie, at least not right away. With the exception of Mo-Pete, all of
>the younger 2/3-spot guys need time to mature (remember how long it took
>Tim Thomas, Larry Hughes and Rashard Lewis?). 
>
>Now throw in this...
>
>STEP F: There's a reason they call Pitino "Quick Rick." 
>Pitino's NBA legacy has been of knee-jerk reactions and quick-fix moves
>with no master plan in sight. The Pippen near-trade. Chris Mills and
>Travis Knight. Dealing Billups after 50 games. The Popeye Jones signing.
>Including a #1 pick in the Potapenko trade that wasn't Top 8-protected.
>The Mercer trade. The Fortson-Williams debacle.
>
>To put it simply, Pitino hasn't proven he can judge talent at the NBA
>level. Paul Gaston should have grabbed the car keys away after the
>Williams-Fortson debacle; he should certainly throw his weight around
>before Pitino makes one last panic/quick fix move. Honestly, I'm not
>sure WHAT Coach P is capable of this week. Will he go after Van Horn and
>the Nets #1 pick? Will he try to clear cap space to make a run at Austin
>Croshere? Will he overpay for someone like Jermaine O'Neal, Brian Grant,
>Donyell Marshall? Will he throw in that future #1 pick from Denver to
>push any deal over the top? How will he pool together all of Boston's
>tradeable assets -- basically Walker, Pierce, the #11 pick, the Denver
>pick and maybe Fortson and Potapenko -- to improve his ballclub without
>destroying it in the process?
>
>All good questions... and they'll all be answered on Wednesday.
>
>
>***** ***** ***** ***** *****
>
>Walk away from this column knowing the following things:
>
>* Unless the Celtics make the playoffs next season, this will be the
>last time you see Rick Pitino and Chris Wallace in the Boston war room.
>
>* If I were a betting man, I would wager that the Celts are more likely
>to trade up/down/off than stay at #11. 
>
>(For what it's worth, if you gave me 10-1 odds that Antoine will be
>traded this week... I'd probably take them.)
>
>* Nobody with a big UPPPPPPPside will get taken by the Celtics with the
>11th pick. 
>
>* If Boston keeps the pick, they will grab either a point guard or a
>scorer. None of the bigger players would get time next season, with the
>possible exception of the Greek Guy (and there's no way they take him
>unless they have a backroom deal worked out with his team in Greece).
>
>* If they stay at #11 and Alexander is sitting there, I think the Celts
>would jump on him. Two years ago, they wouldn't have touched someone
>like him with a ten-foot pole... but things change when you're on the
>hot seat. This team can't compete for a playoff spot without adding
>another shooter OR clearing enough cap space to add a free agent like
>Derek Anderson.
>
>Finally, here are my odds for each potential Celts choice:
>
>--Johnson, 25-to-1 -- Won't be there.
>--Greek Guy, 20-to-1 -- A dark horse.
>--Moiso, 15-to-1 -- Makes no sense.
>--Crawford, 12-to-1 -- Only if Dooling's gone and they still want a big
>point guard.
>--Peterson, 7-to-1 -- Makes sense because he could help right away.
>--Dooling, 5-to-1 -- Smells like a smokescreen.
>--Alexander, 4-to-1 -- Probably won't be there. And that's probably a
>good thing.
>--Cleaves, 4-to-1 -- Please no.
>--Richardson, 4-to-1 -- I didn't think he made sense a week ago... and I
>still don't. 
>
>My money's on the Big Q... but I still think Pitino will trade the #11
>pick for some cap relief and a veteran scorer who could help
>immediately. Either way, the letter "Q" will be prominently involved:
>
>1. Quentin Richardson.
>2. Quick Fix.
>3. Quick Rick.
>4. Quicksand.
>
>