BSG SAYS C'S ARE DRAFTING...

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@ix.netcom.com>]

http://home.digitalcity.com/boston/sportsguy/main.dci?page=13celts00

CELTICS CHRONICLES
How come only one person can figure out what Pitino and the Celts have
planned for the draft this week?

I rarely toot my own horn here, so indulge me... apparently I'm the only
person on the planet who knows what Rick Pitino and the Celtics plan on
doing this week. 

That includes NBA experts like Pete Vescey, Andy Katz, Marty Blake,
Mitch Lawrence, Jackie MacMullan, David Aldridge, Howie Feltersnatch.
That includes Chris Monter, the ubiquitous draft guru who writes for 35
different publications and pumps out mock drafts more frequently than
Shawn Kemp cleans out his vas deferens. That includes all the
overmatched morons in the Boston media, like Larry Bird's personal PR
agent (Peter May), the president of the Antoine Fan Club (Mike Holley),
Davy Crockett (Steve Bulpett) and the chaffeur for the Rick Pitino
Bandwagon (Bill Reynolds). That includes every web journalist and
message board poster who try to gain credibility on the 'Net by starting
up rumors like "According to one of my sources, the Celts love Jerome
Moiso!!!" and then cross their fingers hoping it will come true. That
includes the very nice people at SportsTalk.com who inadvertently
regurgitate more rumors than AJ Benza. 

Most of all, that includes you, the home reader. Not one person has
e-mailed me with the correct blueprint for the C's draft this week. I'm
a little disappointed in all of you... well, at least the six people who
still care about the Celtics.

Without further ado, I'm grabbing your hand and walking with you across
Causeway Street as we attempt to buy you a clue. I'm not telling you
what the Celtics will do this week as much as WHY they will do it, in
six easy steps:

STEP A: Barring a miracle, this is Rick Pitino's last year
Nobody mentions this! Why has this simple fact slipped by everybody who
follows the Celtics and/or the NBA???? Hell, Pitino even said it himself
last spring; if things don't improve for the Celts -- and I mean
improve, drastically, in a "42 wins and we're frisky and we made the 1st
round of the playoffs and we even gave somebody a scare" kinda way --
Rick Pitino will be bounced from the Celtics organization.

So put yourself in Coach P's shoes and say the following two paragraphs
in a Hubie Brown voice just to drive the point home:

You're Rick Pitino. You lost out on Tim Duncan three years ago, then you
turned the #3 and #6 picks of the '97 Draft into Kenny Anderson and
Danny Fortson. You're paying $50 million over the next five years to
Tony Battie and Vitaly Potapenko; because of that, you can't wiggle
under the cap enough to entice a second-tier marquee free agent like
Austin Croshere or Jalen Rose. You would love to trade your best player
-- Antoine Walker -- but you can't get equal value for him. Your only
player with real trade value -- Paul Pierce -- is also the only
untouchable player on your team. You're shelling out $10 million next
season to four small forwards -- Eric Williams, Greg Minor, Cal Cheaney
and Walter McCarty -- who collectively might be the worst quartet since
Quiet Riot stopped touring. Your two point guards -- Kenny Anderson and
Dana Barros -- peaked about five years ago. You're trying to trade a
6-foot-6 power forward -- Fortson -- who only matches up well against
9-10 teams in the league. 

Now it's gut-check time. You need an impact player, someone who can step
in right away and improve your team. Unfortunately, you're drafting at
#11. You're looking for an impact player in a draft full of checkered
talents, 19-year-olds and guys with untapped potential. One more lousy
year and the fans will drive you out of Boston.

So if you're Rick Pitino... what do you do?

STEP B: You draft somebody who will help right away
You may not realize this, but the Celtics would have won 42-45 games
last season if they could have replaced Dana Barros and Walter McCarty
with two players: 

--1. A swingman who could sink an open jumpshot. As I recounted in
detail last March, this team lost at least a half-dozen games in the
final three minutes because they were playing 4-on-5 down the stretch;
teams were just ignoring Williams/Cheaney/Griffin/McCarty and
double-teaming Pierce or Walker during every crucial possession. 

--2. A backup point guard who could actually run the team and guard
somebody. Remember, Dana Barros retired two tears ago and never told
anybody. That's why the Alvin Williams deal was defensible on paper, or
at least until you actually saw Alvin Williams play (yikes). 

Can they find one of these players in the draft at #11? Absolutely.
Which leads us to...

STEP C: You don't draft somebody with a high upside.
Not when you're a lame-duck coach who's desperately trying to turn this
team around in the next four months. 


(NOTE: THIS IS THE CRUCIAL SECTION OF THIS WHOLE COLUMN!!!! PAY
ATTENTION!!!)

If Rick Pitino had been hired last week, it's a completely different
draft for the Celts. Instead of looking for a quick-fix guy, Boston
would be targeting players with the biggest UPPPPPPPsides. Looking at
the Celts and what might be available at #11, here's a list of guys they
should take:

* Iakovos Tsakalidis -- Aka, the 7-foot-2 Greek Guy. He'd go top-five if
his contract status wasn't so dicey.

* DeMarr Johnson -- 6-foot-9, can play three positions, one of the most
talented players in the draft, would fit in beautifully with Pierce and
Walker down the road.

* Joel Pryzbilla -- Seven-footer, 20 years old, might turn into a
legitimate center.

* Jamal Crawford, Keyon Dooling -- Two taller point guards, both
talented, both skilled offensively, both able to play both guard
positions (just what the Celts were looking for with Alvin Williams
before they realized belatedly that he stunk).

* Olumide Oyedeji -- Aka, The Nigerian Guy. I don't know anything about
him other than he's a center prospect and he climbed into the Top 12. 

Instead -- since Pitino knows that this will be his do-or-die season --
the Celts will be drafting somebody from this group of more polished
players:

* Courtney Alexander -- The logical pick if he's there. Alexander allows
the Celts to play Pierce at the 3-spot AND gives them someone who can
score points. So what if there are character questions about him? You
roll the dice, hope it works out... and if it doesn't, that's the next
coach's problem.

* Quentin Richardson -- The most intriguing prospect for Boston even
though he doesn't have a position; the Celts could probably play him
alongside Walker and Pierce and get away with it as long as he was
rebounding and making open jumpers. Other than Alexander, he's the only
player in this group that I could see scoring 15-16 points per game next
season. Very unique player -- part Corliss Williamson and part Isaiah
Rider. Not sure if I like him or not.

* Mateen Cleeves -- Love him or hate him, he'd be a vast improvement
over Dana Barros. Still, there's no way he should go ahead of somebody
like Crawford or Dooling. If the Celts take Cleaves, you KNOW Pitino has
his bags packed.

* Mo Peterson -- Swingman who would instantly give the 3-spot a boost.
Would you rather watch him or McCarty and Williams next year?

* Jerome Moiso -- 6-foot-11, similar game to the Battman. I don't see
how he would find playing time ahead of Potapenko, Battman or Fortson...
but he's a possibility if Fortson leaves.

* Dooling or Crawford -- Only if they're convinced that one of these
guys could play next season... and that's a long shot. They're floating
"We love Kenyon Dooling" vibes to the media the same way they floated
those "We're not interested in Ron Mercer" vibes three years ago. Don't
buy it.

Two more variables here:

STEP D: What veteran free agent will the Celts be bringing in?
Let's say Pitino plans to make a run at Mark Jackson as his new backup
point guard, one of his favorite guys. If that's the case, the Celts
obviously won't be taking Crawford, Cleaves, Dooling or anyone else. If
they plan on clearing cap space to make a run at Derek Anderson, look
for them to grab a point guard -- there's no way Coach P will endure
another season of Kenny/Dana.

STEP E: Will the Celtics make a draft-day trade?
This one scares me, and I'll tell you why...

Remember when Mike Ditka dealt away the whole Saints draft AND their #1
in 2000 for Ricky Williams? It happened because Ditka knew he needed to
make a drastic move to change his fate; he didn't have the best
interests of Saints fans in mind, he was thinking about himself. If it
worked out, he looked like a genius. If it didn't work out, the worst
thing that could happen was that he would get fired (with pay, of
course).

And Pitino's right there. He needs to improve this team RIGHT NOW.
There's nobody in the #11 range who would start for him next season
(with the possible exception of Courtney Alexander). None of the big
prospects are polished enough to take time away from Potapenko and
Battie, at least not right away. With the exception of Mo-Pete, all of
the younger 2/3-spot guys need time to mature (remember how long it took
Tim Thomas, Larry Hughes and Rashard Lewis?). 

Now throw in this...

STEP F: There's a reason they call Pitino "Quick Rick." 
Pitino's NBA legacy has been of knee-jerk reactions and quick-fix moves
with no master plan in sight. The Pippen near-trade. Chris Mills and
Travis Knight. Dealing Billups after 50 games. The Popeye Jones signing.
Including a #1 pick in the Potapenko trade that wasn't Top 8-protected.
The Mercer trade. The Fortson-Williams debacle.

To put it simply, Pitino hasn't proven he can judge talent at the NBA
level. Paul Gaston should have grabbed the car keys away after the
Williams-Fortson debacle; he should certainly throw his weight around
before Pitino makes one last panic/quick fix move. Honestly, I'm not
sure WHAT Coach P is capable of this week. Will he go after Van Horn and
the Nets #1 pick? Will he try to clear cap space to make a run at Austin
Croshere? Will he overpay for someone like Jermaine O'Neal, Brian Grant,
Donyell Marshall? Will he throw in that future #1 pick from Denver to
push any deal over the top? How will he pool together all of Boston's
tradeable assets -- basically Walker, Pierce, the #11 pick, the Denver
pick and maybe Fortson and Potapenko -- to improve his ballclub without
destroying it in the process?

All good questions... and they'll all be answered on Wednesday.


***** ***** ***** ***** *****

Walk away from this column knowing the following things:

* Unless the Celtics make the playoffs next season, this will be the
last time you see Rick Pitino and Chris Wallace in the Boston war room.

* If I were a betting man, I would wager that the Celts are more likely
to trade up/down/off than stay at #11. 

(For what it's worth, if you gave me 10-1 odds that Antoine will be
traded this week... I'd probably take them.)

* Nobody with a big UPPPPPPPside will get taken by the Celtics with the
11th pick. 

* If Boston keeps the pick, they will grab either a point guard or a
scorer. None of the bigger players would get time next season, with the
possible exception of the Greek Guy (and there's no way they take him
unless they have a backroom deal worked out with his team in Greece).

* If they stay at #11 and Alexander is sitting there, I think the Celts
would jump on him. Two years ago, they wouldn't have touched someone
like him with a ten-foot pole... but things change when you're on the
hot seat. This team can't compete for a playoff spot without adding
another shooter OR clearing enough cap space to add a free agent like
Derek Anderson.

Finally, here are my odds for each potential Celts choice:

--Johnson, 25-to-1 -- Won't be there.
--Greek Guy, 20-to-1 -- A dark horse.
--Moiso, 15-to-1 -- Makes no sense.
--Crawford, 12-to-1 -- Only if Dooling's gone and they still want a big
point guard.
--Peterson, 7-to-1 -- Makes sense because he could help right away.
--Dooling, 5-to-1 -- Smells like a smokescreen.
--Alexander, 4-to-1 -- Probably won't be there. And that's probably a
good thing.
--Cleaves, 4-to-1 -- Please no.
--Richardson, 4-to-1 -- I didn't think he made sense a week ago... and I
still don't. 

My money's on the Big Q... but I still think Pitino will trade the #11
pick for some cap relief and a veteran scorer who could help
immediately. Either way, the letter "Q" will be prominently involved:

1. Quentin Richardson.
2. Quick Fix.
3. Quick Rick.
4. Quicksand.