Re: Get a pick for Pervis, at least!

[opi@unesco.org]

There's also a severe "watering-down" effect from the Kevin/Kobe success
stories. This year's rookie HS crop has been a much-noted mess (Jonathan
Bender, Leon Smith). I'm not sure I even remember the names of last year's
rookie highschoolers (Rashard Griffith, I think, and Al Harrington).

At best, this is a dangerous crapshoot with a big upside. If you follow the
careers of the McDonald's All American Team (really the premier HS crop in
terms of talent), you'll see numerous Kris Clack's and Kenny Gregory's (a
dominant former McDonald's game MVP) for every Kevin Garnett or Kobe Bryant.

We're not talking about physically underdeveloped consensus highschool
mega-superstars like Danny Ferry or Bobby Hurley here. Clack and Gregory
were spectacular above-the-rim athletes who each played very well in the
McDonald's game against the best in the nation. Neither one has suffered any
notable injuries in college. They just simply failed to pan out. This
reflects the odds.

****
Alex Wang wrote:

> Well, the price of the pick would be taking on a bad contract of
> some sort. And then you get to develop your new high school talent
> on the bench for four years while he gets disgruntled about
> playing time. Then if he's any good, you have to pay him $71M
> assuming he doesn't take off to a warmer city.
>
> With that said, it has paid off with Garnett and Kobe. McGrady,
> I'm not so sure about. If Toronto loses him, it's not so great;
> they spent a #9 pick on him and really didn't get that much
> production. But the new rookie contracts make it more palatable.
> Still, none of the really successful guys went outside the top 10,
> and I don't think we get a lottery pick for Pervis.
>
> Alex
>
> > I don't know why we can't at least get a pick for Pervis.  It
> > seems to me that mid-first rounders are increasingly valuable
> > these days.  For the last few years, all the morons who write
> > about basketball have been decrying the folly of drafting teenagers
> > Meanwhile, every teenager that's been drafted has turned into a
> > star!  First they said that KG was a unique, case but that Kobe
> > would flop.  Once Kobe became the most exciting talent in the league
> > they said it about Tracy McGrady.  Judas Preist, even Jermaine O'
> > Neil is considered untouchable by the blazers now.  I can't think
> > of anybody who has washed out other than Leon Smith and Taj
> > McDaniel, who no scouts saw potential in anyway.  These teens
> > are the way to go, obviously, and only the mighty power of received
> > wisdom could keep you from seeing that.  But GMs are waking up,
> > and this draft might be the last one in which a great schoolboy talent
> > goes later than the lottery.
> >