The future of Antoine

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

Antoine managed to put up another triple double in a losing effort and look
rather bad doing it. I wish they had season splits by quarter. It really
seems to me that Antoine has a lot of excellent first quarters, rebounding
and distributing the ball. I'll listen to the game broadcast and hear that
Antoine has 6 assists and 5 rebounds at the end of the first quarter. And
then something happens... He struggles his way to 8-10 assists for the game
while turning it over 5 more times by forcing it on offense. I wonder what
it is. Does he feel like, "I've involved my teammates enough and I've got
to take over now"? Or "Enough with the passing, at this rate I'm not going
to get my 20"? If he had 8 points, 12 rebounds, and 15 assists, would he be
happy with his stats? Some days it seems he's on his way to doing that,
because the opponents keep double teaming him and he keeps finding the open
man -- but then he just stops. Or is fatigue affecting him? I'm not sure I
believe this. It takes more effort to drive to the hole against three men
than to swing the ball. I wish he would come out in the third quarter the
way he starts the game; the same people are on the floor with him, he's had
halftime to rest, I would think he could repeat his performance. But it
seems like we lose the game in the third quarter instead.

The fact that he can get double figure assists without even playing that
smart is a testament to his talent. That unique talent is why Pitino said
that Walker, not Pitino, is the most important person in the organization.
I think he's so important that you try a variety of coaches before you
trade Antoine. At some point, if you want to contend, you need superstar
talent. Antoine's the only one on the Celtics that has a chance at that.
It's really, really unlikely that anyone will trade one to us. I remember
when Pitino said that Walker could average 16+ triple doubles per season. I
thought he was a little delusional at the time but I've reconsidered. I
really think he could if he had the right talent around him and the right
attitude. This year having a competent shooter like Stith has improved
Walker's assist total. Add a decent post scorer and that'll go up more.

The thing about trading Walker is that we probably get a similar return as
Washington did when they traded Webber. We're trading from a position of
extreme weakness, he's got a big contract, and nobody knows how he'll react
to different coaching. Right now I can't imagine any superstar talent that
we can acquire by trading Antoine either. Chris Webber, I suppose, but
he'll be a free agent who can choose his destination. Somehow I think there
will be more appealing options than Boston though of course we should still
try to recruit him. I don't believe that Garnett is going anywhere. Draft
picks? I'm not thrilled with that approach either although it does have
this benefit: we would be so bad that our own draft picks would be high
too. We could be Chicago East, or the Clippers East.

But right now, I want to wait on Antoine. The way he's passing, though
sporadic, is encouraging. He's rebounding more than the past couple of
years, although his perimeter focus means that he's not getting to the
offensive boards as much. Right now, if we trade him, I see us getting, at
best, a Dale Davis or PJ Brown type -- solid, quality player but not the
type of talent that you can contend with. 

Alex