State of the Celtics

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

The current roster of the Celtics:

5. Potapenko	Battie
4. Walker	P. Jones
3. Pierce	McCarty
2. Mercer
1. Anderson	Barros
noncontributors: Minor, Ellison, Schintzius

The positions are just approximations. 

Extending Mercer and Battie will significantly increase the
payroll of the Celtics which is already about $40M according
to Peter May, if I recall correctly. I don't see the Celtics
extending both unless Mercer's contract demands become 
significantly lower, which would also make him easily tradable
in the future.

So let's assume that Mercer is traded. I am guessing that a
trade for Fortson doesn't happen because Fortson is in a similar
situation (up for an extension) and will probably have rather
exorbitant contract demands. Instead, Mercer will be packaged
with other players (probably the useless ones) in a deal for a 
player under a long-term contract or a free agent in a sign-and-trade. 
This type of trade won't increase the Celtics' budget, in contrast 
with extending Mercer or trading for another third year player. 
My guess is Battie is extended for some modest amount on the 
order of Potapenko's salary.

Pierce and Walker are each moved down a spot and Adrian Griffin
takes over as the backup swingman. Turner gets the spot as the
injured list point guard. Battie spends more time at power forward.

We have:

5. Potapenko	
4. Battie 	P. Jones
3. Walker	McCarty
2. Pierce	Griffin
1. Anderson	Barros		Turner

The holes in this lineup are at the power positions 4 and 5. We 
may only have Potapenko and Battie as servicable players. So my
assumption is that Mercer goes for a big man. Any trade of this
sort is probably going to look bad because even in an equal trade
the big man is going to have significantly less "talent". In this
case Mercer is a contract headache so he's going to have even less
value. Joe Smith may be a similar situation - a talented player 
but not a superstar who overvalued himself and ended up being traded
for essentially nothing.

That's how a Samaki Walker type of trade happens. Walker seems like
the type of player that Pitino loves to work with - a physically
impressive underachiever who will come at a relatively low price 
(contract wise, not trade wise). I think it's probably a good sign
that Pat Riley is in pursuit of S. Walker too. Samaki sounds like
he is physical and has some shotblocking skills. His 7.4 rpg in 
25 mpg in 97-98 is actually quite good.

Alex