responses to trade thoughts

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

I'm glad that my post has stirred up discussion related to the Celtics
rather than Michael Jordan. I'll respond now to several of the interesting
points raised:

Venkatesh writes regarding my characterization of Ostertag as a liability
due to his offensive impotence:
> However, Ostertag *started* that game with the
> express intent of blocking Chicago's inside shots and preventing them
> from getting an explosive start. In my opinion he did that pretty well -
> blocking a couple of easy lay-ups.

The box score for game 3 has Ostertag blocking one shot. On the other side,
Pippen totally destroyed Utah's offense because Ostertag was unable to punish
him for leaving him to disrupt Stockton. Ostertag couldn't finish on several
nice passes by Stockton and shot 1-7. He was a total liability. In fact, if
Utah had a center that could finish consistently, I wouldn't be surprised to
see them leading this series.

Josh Ozersky writes:
> I think there is a big misconception about the salary cap.
> The figure of three or four million that the celtics have to spend
> doesn't take into account that the cap is about to go up three or four
> million.

Unfortunately this is not correct. And if it were, I would not have 
suggested that Mercer or Anderson might be traded. But the truth is that the
Celtics will likely have about $4M to spend if they renounce Jones and Tabak
and the cap goes to $32M. They do have to pay Radja's buyout, which counts 
against the cap, regardless of whether he returns to the NBA or not. 

Cecil Wright writes:
> I am confused by the willingness to give up Mercer in any deal with the 
> flashes of brilliance he displayed last year.  If we were to draft a 
> surefire talent, such as Mercer, would that player be constantly looking 
> over his shoulder anticipating a trade?  It takes players a period of 
> adjustment before they become familiar with the coach and his system as 
> well as his teammates.  I'm not sure it's such a tremendous benefit to 
> those who are holdovers to go through this year in and year out.

I agree that Mercer has shown flashes of brilliance and would not suggest
dumping him for nothing. But this doesn't translate to him being untouchable.
There must be some combination of cap room, draft picks, and players that
would make this an excellent trade. (I think "a superstar player and Mike
Bibby" is far, far overrating Mercer's talent.) I recall that there were similar 
grumblings when Billups was about to be traded and nobody is complaining now. 
   I also don't think that Pitino should trade major players every year. This is
a particularly important year where the Celtics are going to cap out for the
next seven years or so, assuming Walker can be signed. This will probably be the
last year where major free agents can be added, which is why I think a trade
that is partially salary-cap motivated might be made. This is all based on the
assumption that Pitino has some idea what the new collective bargaining
agreement will look like.

These are the scenarios that I can think of:

1) Pitino believes that things look rosy for the team as it stands. Then he will
re-sign Jones and Tabak and draft someone like Doleac. He may have a tiny bit of
cap room left to gamble on a good CBA player. (not likely)

2) Pitino believes he needs one more decent starter to complement his current
core. He'll renounce Jones and Tabak, trade the pick with Minor or Knight for a 
future pick, and try to sign Ratliff, Geiger, etc. This is what the 
sportswriters think. I agree that it's quite plausible.

3) Pitino believes he needs a superstar (and doesn't think Mercer and Anderson 
fit the bill) to play along with Walker. If this is true, he'll pursue a trade 
of Anderson, Mercer or both. And to those that believe he wouldn't do it, 
remember that he was perfectly willing to give up the #3 and #6 for Pippen last 
year and would have given that and more for Duncan.

4) Or he feels he can get two great players for the price of one by moving up 
in the draft and freeing up cap room at the same time. Mishra proposed this 
some time ago with the Golden State trade (#10 and Anderson for #5).

Alex