Re: Billups trade final.

[Michael Joseph Byrnes <mbyrnes@leland.Stanford.EDU>]

Mishra wrote:

> ESPN is reporting that the Billups deal is now final. It also proves how
> clueless Rick Pitino is. This trade gives us a cap relief of
> 2.8 mill and we have got in return players who are members of the Pervis
> Ellison club <all three of them>. In addition we have inherited a 50
> mill dollar contract for a 6' 1", who shoots 38%..things couldn't be
> worse. Why the hell couldn't we have gone for Joe Smith is completely
> beyond me. - Mishra

I don't think the deal is nearly as bad as you seem to suggest.  

First let's consider the personnel:

I am sorry to see Billups go (and to a lesser extent, John Thomas).  I am
happy to see Dee Brown gone (maybe Kevin McHale will pick him up and he
will get a chance to play), and I really have no feeling one way or the
other for Roy Rogers.

Kenny Anderson is 27 years old, and has five years and $41 million
remaining on his contract after this season.  He is also in the midst of
his worst season in basketball.  However, it is unfair to ridicule him as
a "38% shooter".  Though he isn't a shooter, he has, with the exception of
this year, always been better than 38%.  His numbers, year by year:

	GP   MPG   FG%   PPG  APG  RPG
1991-2  64  17.0  .390   7.1  3.2  2.0
1992-3  55  36.5  .435  16.9  8.2  4.1
1993-4  82  38.3  .417  18.8  9.6  3.9
1994-5  72  37.3  .399  17.6  9.4  3.5
1995-6  69  34.0  .418  15.2  8.3  2.9
1996-7  82  37.6  .427  17.5  7.1  4.4
1997-8  45  32.7  .387  12.6  5.4  3.0

Clearly, his numbers for this year are far out of line with what he has
done over the rest of his career.  I would tend to suspect that Kenny
Anderson is closer his 1991-1997 self, than his 1997-8 edition.

Durability?  He has averaged 71 games per season thourgh the first six
years of his career.  That may be a little low, but it's not Pervis
Ellison territory.

Height?  I'd rather a guy taller than 6'1", but better a 6'1" guy with
talent than a taller guy who can't play.  

Attitude?  How much do we the fans really know about that?  We only ever
see the players through the eyes of the media, which often paints a
less-than-accurate picture of what is really going on.  A long time ago,
the Celtics were able to trade a decent backup center for a star player
who was described as a "cancer" to his team.  That deal worked out pretty
well for the Celtics.  I am not saying that this deal will be comparable,
but I just think that too much is made over players' supposed attitude
problems by people who don't have any first hand knowledge of them.

As for Zan Tabak and Popeye Jones, they are just filler.  Jones won't ever
play for the Celtics, and Tabak will be a useful filler on the team for
the rest of the season (for the short term, the C's can use another 7'0"
body, if nothing else).  Both of their contracts expire at the end of the
year, so...

On to the financial side of the deal:

The trade puts us $2.8 million under the cap.  Assuming my capology is
correct, that slot alone is enough for us to offer someone a 7 year, $49
million dollar deal.  That should be enough to bring in someone who can
play.  But that's not all!  The contracts of Tabak and Jones are worth
another $2.3 million.  Add that to the $2.8, and the Celtics can offer a
free agent a $90 million dollar deal (7 yrs, $12.8 per).  I highly doubt
that the C's are going to pay their number two player (after Antoine) any
more than that, anyway.

I think this deal could go either way, and I haven't been impressed by
Anderson's performance thus far this season.  But, it certainly isn't
likely to be the disaster you suggest.

Michael Byrnes
mbyrnes@stanford.edu