Preseason thoughts

[Chris Littlefield <chris@mjr.com>]

Well, the Celtics preseason is over.  After 4 games I was heartsick.  After
8 games I am cautiously excited but waiting for one more move that would
bring in a semi- or better- quality big man in return for hopefully more
than one of our glutted guard rotation.


I was pleased with the trade that sent Mills to NY.  I thought that Dontae
Jones would be the key, though.  Jones is tremendously athletic, big in the
upper body, jumps out of the building, and can shoot the lights out.  On
the downside, he has _no_ conscience and has the potential to turn into a
head case.
McCarty, I thought, would be a nice backup addition, no more.

Then I went to the Milwaukee game Friday night.  Jones pretty much lived up
to my expectations.  He jacked it up from everywhere, is very fast down the
floor, and has more hops than Mercer.  If he can be reined in and gotten on
the program, he could very well be a monster.  McCarty, though, just plain
shocked me.  He's a 6-10 ball of energy with exceptional ballhandling
skills for his size, good offensive moves (particularly his little baseline
drive/turnaround jumper), excellent (though sometimes misguided) defensive
presence, and amazing speed.  I always thought he was a bit of a stiff.
How else does a 6-10 guy with a national championship slip to the 19th
pick? He certainly was nothing outstanding on the KY championship team.
Good, yes.  This good, no way.

At one point, after McCarty drove baseline, spun, drew a second defender,
and slipped the ball to another Celtic for a layup. Milwaukee called a
time-out.  As he and Walker went to the bench together,  Walker looked
incredulous: "My goodness (okay, add your own expletive), Walt, where the
*&^% did you learn to do that?"

This team is in better shape at this point than I thought it would be.
That doesn't mean I've changed my prediction of 20-25 wins.  I have not.
It does mean that I think more of the _proper_ pieces to play this system
have been put in place.

Center - Knight, while he doesn't box out, has looked better, particularly
defensively, than I thought he would.  His jumper is good as long as he
doesn't rush it, which he tended to do in the last few games.  I think
Ellison has been great!  He's not the 20/10 guy he once was, and he
definitely needs to relearn the concept of scoring, but he's aggressive, he
anticipates well, he's playing defense and rotating pretty well, and
hopefully the refs will eventually get away from calling fouls whenever he
breathes on anyone.

Declerq's been awful.  Massenburg nearly as bad.

Forwards - Walker will have the stats to make the All-Star team.  Whether
he does so or not depends on how the team is doing.  While he is not yet
quite as good as Heinsohn's blithering makes him out to be, he will still
be one of the premier power forwards in the league this year, and may be
the first $150 million dollar man if the league continues on its current
course.
McCarty, if his 2 preseason games with the Celtics were not a fluke and he
continues to develop, will be a good to excellent small forward,
particularly in this system.  As I said above, the boy shocks me.

Guards - Mercer's showing good signs.  He's got many tools.  He'll start.
Billups looked closer to awake against Milwaukee.  He has passed better
than I expected.  Too many times, though, he gets swallowed among the trees
and just looks stupid.  His ankle injury from the summer may still be
limiting him in some way.  Don't get me wrong.  At this point, he's a
disaster of a third pick, though last year's third pick, Shareef
Abdur-Rahim, scored only 11.5 points per game on 38% shooting in his first
month in the NBA, and he was getting 29 minutes.  Is Billups getting only
18-20 minutes because he sucks, or because there are 4 points, at least 2
of whom he'd love to move and is showcasing?  Probably a little of both.

Barros has looked great at times!  He'll be the other starter.

I would use the following as my primary 8-man rotation:

Starters:  Ellison, Walker, McCarty, Mercer, Barros

Bench:	   Knight, Jones, Billups

Backups (AKA please get traded) - Brown, Minor, Declerq, Massenburg


Minor and Brown have actually looked reasonably good, even in limited time.
One would think a home could be found for them somewhere?  Maybe to Denver
for 2nd round picks?  Or maybe to San Antonio for Will Perdue?


Team:


The press has shown signs.  The offense has shown signs. This team is a
work in progress.  I feel much better than I did after the first four
games.  Both the NY and Milwaukee losses were more a result of atrocious
officiating.  The C's should have won both.  That progress is being made is
a positive sign but it will be a while before they can be really
competitive.  They will get badly pounded in November and December.

Hopefully a roster-shrinking, size augmenting trade can be done this week.
But I doubt it.

I still say 20-25 wins and a shot at Loren Woods next year.  Thanks for
letting me blither.  Any comments would be welcome.


Chris