Too many forwards???

[Michael Joseph Byrnes <mbyrnes@leland.Stanford.EDU>]

There has been a lot of talk that the Celtics should focus on drafting
centers or point gurads, because the real talent of the team is at
forward.  I think that it would be a huge mistake to use that philosophy
in the draft.

While the Celtics may be better off at forward than at other positions, we
are still talking about a team that won only 15 games, and does not have a
superstar

Antoine Walker had a good year last year, but there is no way to know how
he will perform in a *system* designed to win games, not accumulate gaudy 
stats.  He is a keeper and belongs in the starting lineup next year, but
he can play either forward spot.

Eric Williams is not the player Walker is, and he also has yet to play in
a system.  In addition, the Celtics only have Williams for one more year
before he becomes a free agent.  Given the C's cap woes, there is no
guarantee that he is a part of Pitino's long term plans.  His performance
this year will determine a) whether Pitino wants him, and b) whether the
Celtics can afford him.  Neither is a given.

Dino Radja is a good player, but also an overpaid one.  At $5.3 million
per year for three more years, it is highly unlikely that the Celtics will
be able to trade him.  So, he will be on the team for the next three
years.  He may be a good player, but I don't think he's so good that the
Celtics should avoid drafting a potentially better power forward.
Eventually, I see Dino fitting into Pitino's system as a role player but
little more.

Rick Fox is a player I would love to see the Celtics keep, but I don't
think it makes "cap" sense to keep him at what he will cost.

Marty Conlon, Brett Szabo, etc. are all cheap, dime-a-dozen role player
types.


So, in reality, the Celtics do not have the depth at forward that everyone
here keeps writing about.  It is true that the one player on the team with
All-Star potential is a forward, but given Walker's versatility, there is
no reason not to select another forward if that is the best player
available.

Pitino cannot afford to think about the short term interests of this team.
Nor does he need to.  With the players he has, Pitino the coach will get
the team to play hard (not "ML Carr hard") and be fun to watch.  That will
satisfy the fans for a while.  

Pitino the manager must look to the team's long term best interests.  The
only way for him to do that is to get the best players he can get, while
freeing up cap room to make a play for a big free agent or two a few years
down the line.  Freeing up cap room will mostly involve *not* signing
players to long term deals, since the Celtics currently under long term
contracts are not marketable.  

If he drafts to fill needs (as opposed to drafting the best player
available), and continues to sign "non-superstars" to long term deals, it
will be a long long time before we can start thinking about a 17th banner.

These are the players that I see on the Celtics next year:

UNMARKETABLE PLAYERS WITH BIG CONTRACTS:

Pervis Ellison (3 yrs)
Dino Radja (3 yrs)
Greg Minor (5 yrs)
Dee Brown (3 yrs)
Dana Barros (4 yrs)
   
It is a travesty to the Celtic tradition that so much time, money, and cap
room was invested in *these* players.  They all have some talent, but not
nearly enough to justify the amount spent on them.  It is unlikely that
Pitino will find takers for any of these guys, without adding a similarly
high salaried player in return.  So, all five of these guys will be here
next year, but none of them are good enough to consider "building around".

PLAYERS WITH LONG TERM POTENTIAL:

Antoine Walker (2 yrs)
Eric Williams (1 yr)
#3 draft pick (3 yrs)
#6 draft pick (3 yrs)
2nd round pick (1 yr)

Walker is the closest thing the C's have to a star, and he is a definate
part of the future.  Williams, on the other hand, is not as talented as Walker, and will be a
free agent at the end of the season.  Based on his performance thus far, I
am not sure if he is worth the money and loss of space under the cap that
it will take to keep him.

So, if Ron Mercer or Keith van Horn is the best player avaiable at #3, it
would be idiocy to pass up either one for a player who fills an "immediate
need".  The Celtics have a "long-term" need at every position (except for
one forward spot), and that is the need that they should be addressing in
the draft.  Personally, I would love to see the Celtics end up with Mercer
*and* Van Horn, but I don't think it will happen.

As for the Celtics free agents, I would renounce all of them.  I like Rick
Fox, but he is not good enough to justify using up more cap room.  The
same is true for David Wesley.  It is hard to judge how successful Wesley
will be outside of the ML Carr "non-system".  If Carr were still in
charge, the Celtics would probably sign Wesley for Chris Childs money,
which would only manage to dig them further into the salcap hole that they
are in.

If the Celtics did not have so much money and time already comitted to 
Ellison, Radja, Brown, and Barros, then I would be all for re-signing
Wesley and Fox.  However, under the current set of circumstances that the
C's are in, it would be suicidal to sign either one of them.

Michael Byrnes
mbyrnes@stanford.edu