Re: random thought snd questions?

[Adam A Suchocki <Twilight@world.std.com>]

Ah...I think you misread the original...I said that it wasn't gauranteed
that a top three finish(worst three) gets a top three pick.  And more
often than not, the worst team has not gotten the number one pick.  But I
see why you would send a correction with what you though I was saying.
Looks like we are both saying pretty much the same thing here.
> If I recall your original post correctly, you said something like "It is more 
> likely than not someone other than one of the first three teams will get the 
> first pick."  I apologize if I am misquoting the statement you edited 
> out...that is my best recollection.  That is definitly incorrect...the first 
> three teams get 60.7% of the combinations, all the other teams combined have 
> only a 39.3% chance.  That is definitely *not* "more likely than not.
> 
> Nothing in life is assured, but the lottery weighting is so heavy that an 
> extra place does make a big difference.  Yes, the last-place team has "only" a 
> 5% better chance than the next-to-last, but since that is the difference 
> between 25% and 20%, the last-place team has a 250/200 better chance, which 
> means they are 25% more likely to get it.  (Yes, I am ignoring the fact 
> Vancouver cannot get the first pick.)  In a lottery drawing, I would really 
> rather have 250 chances out of 1000 rather than 200...statistically, that is a 
> *big* difference.
> 
> I will admit people seem to be taking the lottery odds as if they were draft 
> positions...what else would you suggest in making predictions?  That is, after 
> all, the most likely scenario.  Would you rather discuss, "Gee...if the 
> Celtics get the first two picks, should they take Duncan and Mercer or Duncan 
> and Van Horn?"  That is certainly not as reasonable as discussing Duncan/Van 
> Horn/Mercer/Battie plus someone likely to be around in the 7 (or 6 or 5) to 9 
> slot.

Your reading too much into my origional comment.  I was more objecting to
limiting the possibilities.  A lot of people have posted things like...we
are either getting the first or third pick, because unless we have a worst
record than the Grizzlies, there is no way we can ge tthe second pick.
And other people claiming if San ANtonio catches us we will not get the
number one pick.  As it stands, it looks like we have around a 30 percent
chance of getting the number one pick, and it should be discussed as an
option - but anyone in the top 9 is really fair game with either pick.
As it looks like both picks will be low enough to have a measureable
chance of ending up in the top 3.

As to those 50 balls making a big difference, they do, but its misleading
discussing the percent increase in terms of the original percent.
Although a 25 percent increase sounds great, the truth is in only 5
percent of the possible outcomes does it make a difference.  It could
help, but its nothing to get all worked up over.  It's kind of like those
buy one get one free coupons in the Mass Lottery.  You could say you have
a 100 percent greater chance of winning than without the coupon, but its
still a very slight increase that is not very significant (and definately
not worth getting excited over.)

Adam