Re: The Boston Celtics Mailing List Digest V4 #264

[Jonathan McIntyre <jmc@ptc.com>]

Marc said:
> 1) DNA evidence links Marv Albert to assault. Blood recovered from victim's
> back and semen samples from skin and underwear match Albert's with a 1 to
> 2.6 billion chance of being someone else. But as I figure it there are at
> least 4 billion people on the planet -- so that's only a 2/3 chance that it
> could be him. 

You're joking about that 2/3 chance thing, right?  Tell me that was just a joke, 
please.  The chance is almost precisely 100% that it's him, disregarding 
foul play in processing evidence, tampering with the evidence, etc.  All that 
the 4 billion number tells you is that it's likely that there are only 1 or 2 
people on this planet who'll match the DNA found, and Marv Albert is one of them.
The chance that there is one other person in the world who would match is 
probably pretty good, but even if someone else matches it would be quite an 
amazing coincidence if that were the person who commited this act.

Jon