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The draft lottery
Here are the (almost) final probabilities for the 1997 NBA
draft lottery. (Why almost? Since Toronto and Golden State
are tied for the eighth slot they spilt the 'ping pong balls'
available for the eighth and ninth spots. There is one extra
which I assumed would go to Toronto when they flip the coin.
Even if it doesn't, these probabilities are good to within .1%)
Pick Boston Dallas Total
- ---- ------ ------ -----
First 27.55% 8.82% 36.36%
Second 11.75% 4.92% 16.67%
Third 16.83% 8.13% 24.96%
Fourth 31.74% 0% 31.74%
Fifth 12.13% 0% 12.13%
Sixth 0% 44.81% 44.81%
Seventh 0% 28.29% 28.29%
Eighth 0% 4.11% 4.11%
Ninth 0% 0.93% 0.93%
In addition I made some special calculations:
Boston and Dallas get the first two picks: 2.97%
Boston and Dallas both in top three: 9.36%
Boston OR Dallas in the top three: 68.63%
Boston OR Dallas in the top two: 50.07%
Let me know if anyone is interested in any other special situations.
Looking at these numbers I sure hope we didn't tank the season on
purpose. Sure we have the best shot at Duncan BUT we also have
almost as good a shot at not even getting a top three pick (31.37%)!
Also, I hope we don't end up taking Tim Thomas. He may one day be a
very good player but he is at least a few years away from that. I
think he might retard the progress of the team as a whole (i.e.
Walker and Williams) and we may have to wait longer before the C's
are contenders again.
Those of you who are saying we shouldn't draft a PG since we can
resign Wesley after the draft keep this in mind: With Wesley's
signing likely to be $4mil/yr for a number of years the C's will be
over the cap for the foreseeable future. So they had better have all
the pieces to the championship puzzle put together this offseason.
This is probably an unrealistic hope.
Ray