Insider/Chad Ford Examines The Celtics And Ainge

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Can Ainge save the Celtics from himself?
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider

Let's get this out of the way at the start: I like Danny Ainge. A 
lot. 

I loved him as a basketball player. I thought he was an excellent 
head coach. And I always enjoyed his analysis as commentator on TNT. 
He's also a guy who quit a high-paying job a few years ago to be 
with his family. In my book, it was the most important thing he's 
ever done with his life. 

The worst thing Ainge has done? Come out of retirement to take a 
wrecking ball to the Celtics. 

Now here's the kicker. I don't disagree with what Ainge has done in 
Boston in theory. Ainge cited four big reasons why he decided to 
demolish the leprechauns within minutes of arriving in Boston. 
He believed the Celtics were fundamentally flawed and did not have a 
real chance at an NBA Championship. 
The team was in terrible salary-cap shape and he had limited 
flexibility to make the lateral moves necessary to make the team 
better. 
He did not like the style of basketball the Celtics played. They 
were boring. 
He hated one of their core players, Antoine Walker, and didn't want 
him on the team. Period. 

It's tough to argue with any of Ainge's points here. He's right, the 
Celtics weren't a championship team and minor tinkering wasn't going 
to turn them into one. The Celtics did have a boatload of bad 
contracts left from the Rick Pitino/Chris Wallace era. The Celtics' 
style of play was boring. Watching traffic just outside the Fleet 
Center was more exciting. And Walker was making too much money and 
shooting too many 3s. 

Something had to be done. Ainge's decision to trade Walker wasn't a 
bad one. It's what he got in return that made no sense. 

What's Wrong? 

So what's wrong with the Celtics? Two things are troubling Boston 
fans these days. 

One, Ainge's execution of a sound plan left something to be desired. 
Last year's draft produced two first-round picks, Marcus Banks and 
Kendrick Perkins, who have only played sparingly. Even after the 
Celtics looked cooked and Ainge pushed interim head coach John 
Carroll to play the young guys, Banks and Perkins aren't seeing any 
meaningful time. Banks has already had several run-ins with the 
coaching staff and Perkins is just too raw to see minutes any time 
soon. Only second-round pick Brandon Hunter has made a meaningful 
contribution. 

After the draft, Ainge moved Walker, claiming that he didn't want 
the franchise to be on the hook for a major contract extension, but 
then turned around and took on Raef LaFrentz's deal, which has five 
more years and roughly $50 million left. 

In Ainge's defense, LaFrentz was considered one of the league's most 
promising young big men before he got shipped to Dallas. He was a 
terrible fit on the Mavs and should be, if he ever gets healthy, a 
decent big man in the East. Ainge also walked away with Jiri Welsch, 
a top-notch prospect with a real future in Boston and an extra $4 
million in cap room. 

His other big deal -- Eric Williams, Kedrick Brown and Tony Battie 
for Ricky Davis, Yogi Stewart and Chris Mihm -- cost the Celtics 
coach Jim O'Brien. I don't care how special you think Davis can be, 
the loss of O'Brien wasn't worth it. Williams and Battie served as 
locker room glue. Davis has a history of being acid. The Celtics got 
marginally better offensively, but lost a lot defensively in the 
deal. The fact that they lost all of the cap room that they saved in 
the Walker deal will come back to haunt Ainge. 

Ainge has been most maligned because of the the trade deadline deal 
that sent another $6 million in cap room to the Pistons for back-up 
point guard Chucky Atkins. Not only is Atkins overpaid, but the move 
appeared to undercut one of Ainge's stated goals, getting rookies 
like Banks more playing time. Atkins, a veteran with no long-term 
future in Boston, was inserted in the starting lineup and the 
Celtics did start winning. 

As it stands now, the team has a fighting chance for the eight seed 
in the East. Even that may not be a good thing. The Celtics stand to 
lose four to six draft spots if they make it into the playoffs. The 
draft isn't that deep and the difference between the ninth pick and 
the 15th pick could be huge on draft night. 

The other mistake Ainge made was potentially more serious. It 
appears that he misjudged the fans' willingness to go through 
another painful rebuilding process. The Celtics had just emerged 
from one of the most disastrous stretches in franchise history. The 
team went six seasons without a playoff appearance before O'Brien 
improbably lead the team to surprising Eastern Conference Finals run 
in 2002. 

For the first time ever, the Fleet Center was rocking. Fans loved 
the team and were grateful for a modicum of success after a six-year 
drought. From the numerous people in Boston who I've talked to, 
Ainge seriously underestimated the backlash involved with willingly 
pushing the Celtics back into the lottery. Fans seemed to understand 
that the Celtics' chances of winning a championship with the current 
team were slim, but they wanted to see a winner for a few more years 
before demolishing the team. 

Needless to say the venom spewn in Ainge's direction has been 
endless. "Fire Danny" chants ring through the rafters. Ainge's peers 
are scratching their heads as he tears down what's left of the 
Celtics. Through it all, Ainge has remained confident. 

He knows what he wants. He has a plan to get the Celtics there. He's 
willing to be patient and see it through. His biggest issue? Can he 
get the fans to see it through with him? Attendance is down (the 
Warriors now draw more than the Celtics). Pessimism is up. A 
five-game winning streak has done little to pacify anyone. 
Can Danny fix the mess he seemingly created? 

Celtics' Summer Blueprint 

The Celtics head into the summer with some serious issues yet to be 
resolved. 

If an arbitrator rules that the Celtics wrongfully terminated Vin 
Baker's contract, the team will be in financial hot water again this 
summer. Taking on the long-term contracts of Davis, Stewart and 
Atkins will come back to haunt the team and Ainge will be seriously 
handcuffed to make a deal that has any real impact on the team. If 
an arbitrator does rule in the Celtics' favor, the team suddenly 
clears $14.6 million off the books, giving it plenty of financial 
freedom to make a few changes over the summer. 

Here's a look at what to expect as Insider continues it's summer 
blueprint series. 

DRAFT: The Celtics currently hold three first-round picks this 
summer. They have their own, the Mavericks' and the Pistons' 
first-rounders. If the draft were held today, the team would own the 
16th, 23rd and 27th picks. 

The Celtics' own pick is the most important. If they make the 
playoffs, the lowest they can draft is 15th. If the Cavs and Heat 
pass them for the eighth spot, they'll likely have the No. 9 pick in 
the draft. That's a major change of circumstances. With such 
gridlock at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, a nice 
losing streak to end the season could easily get the Celtics as high 
as the No. 6 or No. 7 pick in the draft. That's a huge spread in any 
draft. 

Ainge claims to like the draft and so do I. But it comes with a 
major, major caveat. There are very few impact players in this 
draft. Most of the best prospects are playing high school ball or 
are young 7-footers playing overseas. Few of them will be ready to 
contribute in a meaningful fashion for another two or three seasons. 
That doesn't bode well for the rebuilding process. 

The strategy for the Celtics? Take one safe college pick and use the 
other two picks to try and nab an international and/or high school 
project with more upside. The team's biggest need is at the four and 
five, so expect the Celtics to go big whenever they can. 

Among the big men who could possibly be available in the 9-27 range? 
Pavel Podkolzine (7-5, Russia), Martynas Andriuskevicius (7-3, 
Lithuania), Hakim Warrick (6-9, Syracuse), Ivan Chiriaev (7-1, 
Russia), Marvin Williams (6-9, Bremerton, WA), LaMarcus Aldridge 
(6-11, Dallas, TX), Damir Omerhodzic (6-11, Croatia), David Harrison 
(7-0, Colorado), Rafael Arajujo (6-11, BYU), and Ha Seung Jin (7-3, 
Korea). 

That's actually a lot of big men for any one draft. But of the 
group, only one, Warrick, expects to make an impact in right away. 

FREE AGENCY: This is where things get tricky for the Celtics. Center 
Mark Blount is an unrestricted free agent. The Celtics do not have 
his Bird Rights, meaning that if they want to re-sign him (they say 
they do) they'll have to dig into their mid-level salary exception 
to get it done. Blount is going to command some money on the open 
market, meaning that to re-sign him, the Celtics would likely have 
to spend most, if not all, of their exception to keep him around. 
The team also has to decide what to do with Chris Mihm, who will be 
a restricted free agent this summer. He's not expected to command a 
huge salary on the open market, which could make him pretty 
affordable to re-sign. 

If the team decides, instead, to let Blount go, then it'll have its 
full mid-level exception to work with. Ainge should be allowed to 
use it this year, but if the Celtics are forced to eat Baker's 
salary, it could cause some hand wringing among management. The 
Celtics payroll should come in at just around $45 million this 
summer (right at the cap) if Baker comes off the books. That number 
swells to $59 million (a few million over the luxury-tax threshold) 
if they're forced to pay Baker. 

Who else will be available in the mid-level exception range who 
could interest the Celtics? Realistically, their best shot will be 
with a veteran player like Antonio McDyess, Zeljko Rebraca or a 
young big like Etan Thomas or Slava Medvedenko. 

TRADES: The rumor out of Boston was that Ainge was attempting to 
move Ricky Davis before the trade deadline. If he could package him 
with Stewart (who is in the last year of his contract), Ainge may be 
able to get something decent back in return. 

The other alternative is to try to trade Paul Pierce. The team has 
very decent options already at the two and three with Welsch and 
Davis. If Ainge could magically turn Pierce into a young four or 
five, he'd have to consider it. Most teams won't ever trade big for 
small, but Pierce is a special player and could convince the right 
GM to give up a big in return. 

COACHING STAFF: John Carroll is a dead man walking. Ainge will try 
to find a coach who fits the style of play he wants his Celtics to 
play -- fast and furious. There has been a lot of speculation that 
Ainge ultimately will look in the mirror and find the next head 
coach of the Celtics, but he denies that so far. 

There's a lot of buzz around former Sonics' coach Paul Westphal 
right now with several folks inside the Celtics claiming he's a 
front-runner for the job. Other coaches who have been mentioned 
include former Celtics Dave Cowens and Dennis Johnson 
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