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Ford on tanking and the prep prospects
Here are a couple of pieces from Chad Ford. The first dives into the
tanking issue. Let me make one thing clear - I'm not saying the Celtics
should try to lose. BUT ... I'm hoping they continue to play hard and
yet miss the playoffs. It's too big a difference this year. Those top
seven picks are vital. Everyone points to the guys who didn't pan out,
but where would Memphis be without Gasol? Would the Suns be considered
up-and-comers if they hadn't drafted Amare Stoudemire? Or Shawn Marion?
How about Denver with Carmello Anthony or Nene? These aren't Duncan or
Shaq, but they're high picks. Where would the Celtics be without Pierce?
The Mavs without Nowitzki? It's not a sure thing, but your odds are a
lot better when you draft that high.
The second piece looks at the top high school prospects, including at
least two guys, probably more, who will end up in the lottery. Dwight
Howard, of course, would be a great fit for the Celts. I'm intrigued as
I hear more and more about Shaun Livingston, the 6-8 point guard from
Chicago. If none of the big guys are there, he might be a good
consolation prize. I don't know. A high school point guard ... scary.
Mark
Who should start tanking the season?
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Monday, March 1
Updated: March 1
10:15 AM ET
Normally, I'm not allowed to use obscene words in my column
...
something about being family friendly ... but every year I
go ahead
and push the envelope here and write an entire column using
the
dirtiest word in the NBA. Cover your childrens' ears if you
just
happen to be reading this out loud.
Tank, v.: To suffer a sudden decline or failure.
There, I said it.
The Hawks deny they're doing it. The Magic, at this point,
have no
choice but to do it. The Clippers and Warriors are proving
once
again they've perfected the art form. The Bulls, despite all
that
talent, can't get off the merry-go-round.
We all know what goes on behind closed doors, in the dark
corners of
locker rooms and in the wandering mind of Tracy McGrady.
Avert your eyes if you must. Flee the scene if you can't
take the
heat. Hang a scarlet "T" around your mascot's neck if it
makes you
feel any better.
It's tanking time folks. You know it. I know it. And the
American
people know it. And secretly, you love it. You want Dwight
Howard or
Emeka Okafor on that wall. You need him on that wall. You
don't want
the truth because, frankly, you can't handle the truth.
What else should teams like the Bulls or Wizards be doing at
this
point in the season?
While it's reprehensible for a team to begin the season with
such a
goal, at this point several teams would be stupid not to
dump their
last 20 games.
The Cavs did it shamelessly last season, and look what it
landed
them. Sold-out arenas every night for the next decade and a
fighting
chance at the playoffs this season.
Everyone is still playing for something. Playoffs or lottery
balls?
Experience or upside? Honor or hope? For the good teams out
there,
there's no time like the present. For the bad ones, there's
always
next year.
The key is understanding which category you're in. Sure,
it's easy
to say the Suns are playing for the lottery and the Kings
are
playing for a ring. But what about the Celtics, Sixers,
Jazz,
Blazers and Sonics?
Should they be going for the gold or enrolling in the
Lottery Ball
Acquisition Program? In our ongoing effort to educate,
Insider
reveals the answers today. But remember, sometimes the truth
hurts.
There should be one simple mantra for lottery-bound teams 60
games
into the season: If it's broke, don't fix it.
Here's a look at 10 teams that should tank the rest of the
season
...
Orlando Magic
Record: 17-44
Chance of landing No. 1 pick: 25%
The Skinny: The Magic are playing their best basketball of
the
season (four wins in their last 10 games) at the worst
possible time
of the year. The Magic don't have the flexibility to
dramatically
alter their roster in free agency or via trade. They just
don't have
enough pieces. After severable miserable drafts, they need
to hit a
home run this year. The problem is, the two best players in
the
draft -- Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor -- play the same
position as
Orlando's second- and third-best players -- Juwan Howard and
Drew
Gooden. The Magic do seem enamored with 7-foot-5 Siberian
giant
Pavel Podkolzine, but he's not ready to contribute yet.
Chicago Bulls
Record: 17-42
Chance of landing No. 1 pick: 20%
The Skinny: Deja vu? The Bulls are in serious running for
the first
pick in the draft. GM John Paxson has a thing for Okafor, so
don't
assume the Bulls are tired of collecting inexperienced
players in
the draft. If they slip to No. 2 and Dwight Howard is on the
board,
pass Paxson the Rolaids. Most believe the Bulls will try to
trade
this pick, along with another asset or two, to land a
veteran
all-star. Still, to get the most for their money, they need
to stop
this silly streak of winning and get back to what they do
best --
dumping the ball into Eddy Curry, then limping off the court
with
another "L" in the Win-Loss column.
Washington Wizards
Record: 18-41
Chance of landing No. 1 pick: 15.7%
The Skinny: Like the Bulls, the Wizards probably have had
their fill
of young, inexperienced draft picks. The team has eight
players with
three years of experience or less. But there is a lot of
interest in
Okafor, who by NBA draft standards is a 10-year vet, and
also
interest in moving the pick. If they can add a tough,
legitimate
center to play alongside Kwame Brown, the Wizards might
actually be
able to make some noise next season. They're another team
that's
been winning a little too much lately.
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 19-40
Chance of landing No. 1 pick: 12%
The Skinny: They have nothing to play for. Next year's
roster, with
the possible exception of Boris Diaw and Travis Hansen,
won't look
anything like this season's ragtag squad. The Hawks' latest
move,
dumping Dion Glover, proves they have the right idea, but
when are
they really going to get serious and sit Jason Terry for the
season?
The Hawks' worst nightmare is an injury to Terry that makes
him
untradeable this summer. As far as the draft goes, it's
likely the
Hawks' chances of landing the No. 1 pick will improve, as
the odds
of them reaching 22 wins seems pretty slim right now. Look
for
Atlanta to nab local product Dwight Howard if it gets the
No. 1
pick.
Phoenix Suns
Record: 20-41
Chance of landing No. 1 pick: 8.9%
The Skinny: The Suns are, by far, the most talented team in
this
group. Unlike everyone else here, they have a very solid
core with
Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson and some nice
young
players in Leandro Barbosa, Zarko Cabarkapa, Casey Jacobsen
and
Maciej Lampe. Throw in the draft rights to Milos Vujanic,
and it's
pretty clear the Suns don't need this pick. Unless there is
a
legitimate, Western Conference center waiting for them in
this
draft, you can be pretty sure they'll try to package this
pick,
along with Jahidi White's contract, to get the cap room they
need to
make a major run at a veteran free agent. Steve Nash and
Kobe Bryant
have the buzz, with Mehmet Okur as a sleeper should the
Pistons
decide to only re-sign Rasheed Wallace.
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 24-36
Chance of landing No. 1 pick: 6.4%
The Skinny: The Sixers have crumbled before our eyes this
season. I
know they're still trying to grit things out and make a run
at the
playoffs -- and they have a legit shot, as almost everyone
in the
East does -- but is it in the Sixers' best interest? The
team is
getting old and needs fresh blood, especially on the front
line.
Philly's only young players with much promise are Samuel
Dalembert,
John Salmons and, to a lesser extent, Kyle Korver. The
Sixers need a
freakishly versatile, athletic player like Howard in the
worst way.
Landing the No. 1 pick could turn a dying franchise around
pretty
fast.
Boston Celtics
Record: 25-36
Chance of landing No. 1 pick: 2.9%
The Skinny: Danny Ainge loves this draft so much, he was
willing to
take on the last two years of Chucky Atkins' contract just
to get a
third first-round pick, even if it's low in the round. With
the
Celtics playing some of the worst basketball in the league
right
now, I believe Ainge has decided it's time to throw in the
towel. He
wants head coach John Carroll to play young players like
Jiri
Welsch, Brandon Hunter, Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins so
he has
a better feel for what he does and doesn't have going into
the
summer. Given Danny's preference for up-tempo basketball,
you can be
pretty sure he's gunning for a player like Howard to add
size and
versatility to his front line.
Golden State Warriors
Record: 25-33
Chance of landing No. 1 pick: 1.5%
The Skinny: No one knows this game better than the Warriors.
They
should miss the playoffs for a league-leading ninth
consecutive
year. Another late lottery pick isn't going to help things,
and the
playoffs appear to be out of the question now. Time to pull
Erick
Dampier (before he gets hurt), Cliff Robinson and Calbert
Cheaney
out of the rotation and let Mike Dunleavy and Mickael
Pietrus shoot
the team into lottery land.
Los Angeles Clippers
Record: 25-33
Chance of landing No. 1 pick: 1.4%
The Skinny: Does it really matter?
Seattle SuperSonics
Record: 27-32
Chance of landing No. 1 pick: 0.7%
The Skinny: Nate McMillan hates this. You don't blame him.
But when
the Sonics decided not to make a move at the trade deadline,
GM Rick
Sund essentially told McMillan the playoffs weren't a
priority this
year. It's probably just as well. Now's the time to throw
Ronald
Murray and Luke Ridnour out there and see how well they'll
mesh with
Ray Allen.
NBA Draft: Howard's No. 1
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
First for the good news. There will be no Dwight Howard
watch this
season. No endless replays of him dunking over scared,
skinny
6-foot-4 kids. No talk of him signing a $100 million deal
with Nike.
No Hummer scandal. No Michael Jordan comparisons. Chances
are,
you'll never see him play before a highlight reel rolls on
draft
night.
Now for the tough love. Howard, a 6-foot-11, 255-pound,
18-year-old
power forward from Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy
(SACA), will
not save the NBA. He will not average 19.9 ppg during his
first few
months in the league. He may not even be the top candidate
for the
NBA Rookie of the Year.
Finally, the hating. His game resembles Kwame Brown's more
than
LeBron's.
However, if things continue as they have, he will be the
first
player to hear his name called at the 2004 NBA Draft on June
24.
Ladies and gentleman, we give you the consensus top NBA
prospect in
the country.
Is he the next Tim Duncan as one scout claims? Is he the
next Kevin
Garnett as another gushes? Or is he the second coming of
Kwame, as a
third scout warns in hushed tones?
The comparisons to the only other high school big man to be
taken
No. 1 are obvious. Like Brown, Howard is an athletic freak
for his
size. He runs the floor like a guard, can jump out of the
gym, shoot
from the perimeter, handle the ball in traffic and packs
enough meat
on his bones to pass for a guy five years older.
He has dominated at the Adidas ABDC camp and won top honors
at the
Player's Association Top 100 Camp in Richmond, Va., this
summer. His
AAU team, the Atlanta Celtics, is the most talented in
years, with
three legit NBA prospects. This season, Howard is averaging
around
27 points, 18 rebounds and 8 blocks.
And like Brown, he comes from a little school in Georgia.
He's
polite. He comes from a big family. He's humble, even soft
spoken,
and, some claim, just a little bit soft.
"You're not going to find a better person that's in the same
position he's in," SACA coach Courtney Brooks says. "He's
very
humble. He's a kid. He has a little boy smile about him and
a peace
that's God sent."
You're not helping, Coach. Three years ago scouts were
convinced
Brown had the skills to become a new breed of multi-skilled
athletic
power forward in the NBA. America's answer to Dirk Nowitzki,
if you
will. After seeing him flounder in Washington for three
years, you
think a scouting report like that would be the kiss of
death.
You'd be wrong. Comparisons to Brown won't stop Howard from
going
No. 1. Scouts believe he's mentally tougher and has more
heart than
Brown and, in the right situation, could turn into the
dominant
player many thought Brown would be.
That's why the reports from NBA scouts all appear to agree
he's the
best prospect in the draft. At his size, he can do just a
little bit
of everything. He dominates in the paint but also has the
ability to
step out and hit shots on the perimeter. His ball handling
is so
good, he often handles for his team in the fourth quarter.
He's
murder on the fast break. He's quick off the dribble and off
the
floor. He's not afraid to crash the glass and is an
excellent shot
blocker. He hustles, has a nose for the ball and always
seems to be
in the right place at the right time. He's mature, a hard
worker,
has a great attitude and has improved dramatically over the
course
of his three years playing high school ball.
On paper, at least, he's the perfect prospect.
One scout asked about the weaknesses in Howard's game gave
this
stunning response: "I'm still looking. He's almost too good
to be
true. You hate to claim that a guy might be too nice for the
NBA,
but that's about the most that I can come up with. I'm not
sure he
really has the edge that the great ones like Garnett and
[Amare]
Stoudemire had. He's going to take longer to adjust than
LeBron,
because he still needs to learn the game, but he's got the
chance to
be a really great player."
Every other scouting report is pretty similar. Comments like
"he
needs time to develop" or "he needs to be a little nastier"
are
about the only negative things you hear.
Emeka Okafor might have more experience. Several
international
players are taller and have more big-time playing
experience. But no
one eligible for this year's draft has the package Howard
does,
which is why he's mentioned, now almost unanimously, as the
likely
No. 1 pick.
Howard, despite his perceived humility, doesn't disagree.
Not only
does he think he's ready, he believes he could be better
than
LeBron.
"If I go pro, I'm thinking I'm going in there to dominate
right
away," Howard told USA Today a few weeks ago, "What I want
to do is
... show everybody LeBron just set a standard for high
schoolers
that we can play basketball with the big boys ... I think I
can
surpass LeBron."
Howard isn't alone. Scouts generally agree the high school
Class of
2004 is the strongest since the class of 2001 that featured
Brown,
Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry and DeSagana Diop in the top
eight.
Scouts believe as many as four high school seniors could
crack the
lottery this year, and two or three more could end up in the
first
round -- a record for high school draft entrants.
Clearly, that backlash scouts predicted after Kwame and Co.
struggled in year one hasn't materialized.
Here's a quick look at five other high school seniors whom
scouts
are watching this season.
Josh Smith, SG/SF, Oak Hill Academy
The facts: 6-8, 200
The skinny: Think Darius Miles with a jump shot. That's the
rep
Smith has going into the draft and why most scouts claim
he'll be a
top-10 selection if he comes out. Before you get too excited
(Miles
went No. 3), the comparison evokes both the good and the
bad. Smith
is a top-notch athlete and has guard skills for his size. He
jumps
out of the gym and can run all day. Unlike Miles, he's a
pretty
proficient shooter, though he still needs to improve on his
3-point
range. The problems, however, are also there. He's rail
thin, and
scouts wonder how he'll handle the rigors of the NBA. He
sometimes
shrinks in the paint and isn't the rebounder scouts think he
should
be for his size. He relies on his athleticism too much at
times and
still is learning the game. He doesn't have any real go-to
moves and
sometimes hesitates to take his man off the dribble. His
ball-handling needs improvement if he's going to make the
transition
to the three in the pros. Even with all those holes, scouts
still
think he's a lottery prospect, though some say mid-first
round is
more realistic.
Shaun Livingston, PG, Peoria, Illinois
The facts: 6-7, 180
The skinny: When the best point guard in the country also
happens to
be 6-foot-7, talk of making a jump to the NBA is inevitable.
The
thing about Livingston is that, despite his size, he's a
pure point
guard with amazing court vision and a real flair to his
game. He
snuck down to Hoops Gym in Chicago this summer to play with
several
NBA players, and word was he more than held his own. While
fans will
love his artistry with the basketball, scouts adore that he
plays
that way without being prone to turnovers. Think Jalen Rose
without
the selfishness. Livingston has committed to Duke, but
sources claim
he'll come out if he's projected to go in the lottery. Right
now
scouts have him right on the fence, but a strong workout or
two
could easily get him in.
Robert Swift, C, Bakersfield
The facts: 7-1, 240
The skinny: Swift already is earning a rep as possibly the
best
American center in the draft. He's quick, relatively
athletic and
knows how to score and rebound in the paint. He has great
hands and
footwork for someone his age, plays aggressively and,
believe it or
not, is a decent passer from the post. While scouts know
he's going
to have to bulk up to play heavy minutes in the pros, almost
all of
them believe he has the talent to go in the late lottery
right now.
Some scouts believe he is the second-best high school
prospect. The
fact that academic issues may keep him from keeping a verbal
commitment to USC also will factor into his decision to turn
pro.
Al Jefferson, PF, Prentis High, Mississippi
The facts: 6-9, 270
The skinny: Jefferson is perhaps the strongest high school
player in
the country, and many believe he's the best pure low-post
player in
his class. Jefferson is a man child, with an NBA body and
NBA
athleticism. He's a fierce worker in the paint, drawing
comparisons
to Amare Stoudemire. He has soft hands for his size and has
a
surprising mid-range jumper that he's been improving over
the past
year. Scouts worry about his conditioning a bit, and about
his
position. Weight has been an issue, with most scouts feeling
he
could stand to lose 10 to 20 pounds. He plays center in high
school,
but at 6-foot-9 will have to make the transition to power
forward in
the pros. While scouts think Jefferson is a good athlete,
his size
limits his quickness and explosiveness. Originally scouts
felt
Jefferson would enter the draft as long as he was projected
to be a
first-round pick. However, he has made some recent
statements that
indicate he may honor a commitment to Arkansas if he isn't
projected
to go in the lottery. That may be a stretch, given the other
talented prospects ahead of him.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Seagoville, Texas
The facts: 6-11, 225
The skinny: Aldridge has made drastic improvements over the
past
year, leading NBA scouts to take a second look at the big
kid from
Texas. Once considered just a low-post guy, Aldridge worked
hard
over to improve his outside shooting and ball handling. He
has
succeeded to the point that many scouts feel he could end up
playing
some three in the league.