RE: Introducing the Charlotte Bobcats (including 2-3 former Celtics) -- Long

["John Lyell" <jlyell@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

I heard rumors of Golden State moving Van Exel and Dampier before the trade
deadline and Portland still trying to move Rasheed. I would package Davis
and Blount and McCarty in a package for Wallace or Van Exel and Dampier


John




-----Original Message-----
From: owner-celtics@xxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-celtics@xxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of
wayray@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, January 30, 2004 6:50 AM
To: celtics@xxxxxxxx
Subject: re: Introducing the Charlotte Bobcats (including 2-3 former
Celtics) -- Long


Mark The Other,
Why protect Blount when he can opt out and seems hellbent on leaving?
At least that's what the PR Gal Shira tells us.

And Baker is likely, gone daddy, way gone, before the expansion draft.

So switch Jones for Blount or perhaps someone Ainge acquires in a deal
before
the deadline.
Ray

> ** Original Subject: Introducing the Charlotte Bobcats (including 2-3
former Celtics) -- Long
> ** Original Sender: Mark Piotrowski <markp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> ** Original Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2004 06:13:17 -0800 (PST)

> ** Original Message follows...

>
> When the suggestion was made that Ricky Davis not be protected in the
> Expansion Draft it got me to thinking about who the Celts *would*
> protect.  I think Davis will be protected and LaFrentz will be left
> unprotected -- and unpicked.
>
> Keep in mind the rules of the draft:
> (discussed at:
> http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/charlotte/sports/basketball/nba/
> charlotte_bobcats/6143689.htm )
>
> - Each team protects 8 players, and can only lose 1 (FA's aren't
> included in the 8)
> - Charlotte must take 14 players (and can take up to 29 theorhetically)
> - Charlotte has a Cap of around $30 million (based on current
> projections)
> - Teams can offer Charlotte a Pick + (up to $3 million) to take or not
> take a player
>
> This last rule is new, and while the cause of much speculation (i.e.
> Boston could offer Charlotte Dallas' #1 pick & $3mil to take Baker's
> contract) I think the $30 mil salary cap that Charlotte has to squeeze
> under will mean it gets used maybe once by whatever team makes the best
> offer -- see below for who i think will/should.
>
> I think the Celtics will protect:
>
> Pierce / Welsch / Davis / Banks/ Perkins / Mihm / Hunter / Blount
>
> Leaving the following unprotected:
>
> LaFrentz / Baker (if he's not bought out) / McCarty / Stewart / Jones
> (who i think will be taken)
>
> By looking over the other rosters (and spending way too much time on
> something this uselsess) I think there are 4 sure picks, then the
> possibility of Orlando making a blockbuster deal.  Here's who I think
> the Bobcats will pick (in order of "certainty"):
>
> The 4 Locks:
>
> 1.  Stromile Swift - 4.5 mil (or Lorenzen Wright/Earl Watson) --
> Memphis has 6 "locks" (J. Williams, Posey, Miller, Gasol, Wells, &
> Battier) which means one of Swift/Wright/Watson will be exposed -- i
> think they'll protect Wright (their starting Center) and Dahntay Jones
> (or maybe Troy Bell both of whom are on Rookie Scale contracts).  That
> leaves either Swift or Watson -- i say the Bobcats take Swift;  however
> I just realized that (as per the Exp. Draft rules) as a Restricted FA,
> Swift would become a Unrestricted FA if he got picked -- they may still
> pick him to take advantage of his lost salary or go with Watson (1.3
> mil) or Wright (6.6 mil) if left unprotected.  Either way someone from
> Memphis is being picked
>
> 2.  Corliss Williamson - 5.0 mil (or Chucky Atkins or Elden Campbell)
> -- Detroit also has 6 locks (Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Wallace, Okur
> (you have to protect Retricted FA's or they can be taken), & Milicic)
> which means the last spots are for Atkins, Campbell or Williamson.
> Since they are trying to clear as much cap room to resign Okur and
> Corliss has the biggest contract, and because he's not a big part of
> Larry Brown's plans, I think they leave Williamson exposed.  If not,
> whoever of Atkins or Campbell gets exposed gets taken (at lower money)
>
> 3.  Derek Fisher - 3.0 mil (or Rick Fox) -- the Fakers have 7 locks
> (Shaq, Payton, Dev. George, Malone, Walton, Rush, Cook -- the last 3
> b/c they have small contracts and have played well in the absence of
> the 4 HoFamers).  I believe Kobe will either be a FA or in jail so they
> probably won't need to protect him.  That leaves one spot for Fox or
> Fisher.  I think they'll leave Fisher unprotected over Fox because of
> Payton's signing.  If not Fox goes back to his College stomping grounds
> as a veteran leader at 4.7 mil.
>
> 4.  Anthony Peeler - 1.0 mil (or Gerald Wallace, Doug Christie).  If
> i'm the kings this is easy -- you don't mess with success so you have 8
> locks (Webber, Bibby, Miller, Jackson, Stojakovic, Christie, Songalia,
> & G. Wallace).  Though they may decide to keep the veteran Peeler and
> leave Wallace open.  They could also decided to keep both Wallace and
> Peeler at low money and leave Christie available, but that's a big risk
> for a title-contending team.  If Christie's their at 6.9 mil, the
> Bobcats would have to think long and hard about passing him over.
>
> Scenario #1 -- Orlando's Blockbuster
> ---------------------------------------
>
> 5.  Grant Hill 13 mil -- OK this is the team that I think will make the
> big push for Charlotte to take their Salay Crap problem -- in part b/c
> they have the most to offer.  Orlando has to realize they're sunk until
> the non-playing Grant Hill comes off the books, limiting them to adding
> average players like Juwan Howard and wasting McGrady's prime years.
> Getting rid of Hill's contract would let the Magic go hard after a free
> agent (and maybe even a mid-level exemption) this summer (Mehmet Okur,
> Stro Swift, Kenyon Martin, Rasheed Wallace, Keon Clark, even Kobe?).
>
> They're on course for the #1 or #2 pick this year (but have a
> Washington pick coming in the future).  But the way the NBA draft is
> going a #1 pick won't pay off for 2-4 years.  If i'm them I work out to
> trade that Washington pick (only top 3 protected in 2006, unprotected
> 2007) to someone like Boston or Pheonix (who have multiple #1's this
> year, but may not want 2 this year for various reasons (Suns don't need
> it and want the cap room for a Kobe push; do we really want/need 5
> rookies + 2nd year players?) for one of their #1's this year (to add a
> Jarvis Hayes type college player in the 10-15 range).
>
> Orlando would then trade the #1 pick (& $3 million) to Charlotte so
> they'll take Hill.  It's a big risk for Charlotte, but realistically
> their window doesn't even begin to open for another 2-3 years.  The
> next 2-3 years should be for player development, stockpiling picks,
> young players, etc.  So even if Hill never steps on the court it hasn't
> hurt their development as a team.  They basically lose cap space for
> the #1 pick this year.  And there is still the chance Hill may come
> back -- and his attempts won't be as big a distraction to Charlotte as
> they are to Orlando; in fact they actually will help build interest in
> the team i think.  Also, Hill's Duke connection should help ticket
> sales and/or he could be groomed for a front office/ambassador job.
> The Bobcats can then gamble on a HS/foreign player with one of their 2
> top 4 picks and go for a more sure bet (like Okafor or Ben Gordon) with
> the other pick.  Okafor's the only player i'd keep the pick for if i'm
> Orlando -- HS Howard seems like a Kwame Brown/Tyson Chandler type
> project -- which the Magic don't have time to wait for.
>
> If the Bobcats take Hill they will probably make the rest of their
> picks minimum salary guys and go with a lineup of:
>
> PG: Derek Fisher / Steve Blake (see below)
> SG: Anthony Peeler / Jason Kapono (min. salary)
> SF: Corliss Williamson  / Jumaine Jones (see below)
> PF: Rodney Rogers (see below) / Mark Madsen (see below)
> C: Emeka Okafor (#1 pick)
>
>
> Swift (who becomes a UFA)
> Grant Hill (rehabbing)
> 4 other minimum salary players from expansion draft: (Willie Green
> (Phi), Roger Mason (Tor), James Jones (Ind), Jon Stefansson (Dal),)
> #4 and #34 picks
>
> Scenario #2 -- Orlando Can't/Won't Pull Off the Blockbuster
> ---------------------------------------------------------------
>
> 5.  If the Magic can't get Charlotte to bite they lose either DeClercq
> (2.5 mil) or Hunter as cheap, big men. The rest of the expansion draft
> could play out thusly:
>
> 6.  Joel Pryzbilla - 2.3 mil (or Daniel Santiago, Erick Strickland) --
> Bucks are harder to figure out.  They have 4 locks (Redd, D. Mason,
> Ford, Skinner), I can't see them not protecting Tim Thomas (though with
> a max contract they might and dare the Bobcats to take him), Joe Smith
> (who's playing well as a starting PF and makes 5.4 mil -- attractive
> enough for Char. to snap him up).  That leaves 2 spots for their
> 3-headed young-cheap center trio: Dan Gadzuric, Daniel Santiago & Joel
> Pryzbilla.  While Pryzbilla may have the most talent, he's been hurt
> often (but is still cheap enough for the Bobcats to take him and the
> gamble).  If they leave Santiago or Gadz open i think they get taken.
> The wildcard is Erick Strickland.  I don't know what they do with him
> -- he is the backup PG at low money so they may leave Pryzbilla &
> Santiago unprotected.  But one of them is gone.
>
> 7.  Steve Blake - 400 k (or Stackhouse, Larry Hughes, Jared Jeffries)
> -- much like the teams above, I think Washington loses someone.  Their
> a lock to protect 6 players (Arenas, K. Brown, Dixon, Hayes, Haywood,
> E. Thomas).  I think they'll also protect Jeffries and Stackhouse, but
> they could take a gamble and leave Stack exposed so they can keep
> Hughes -- whose played well in Stack's absence.  At most they leave
> Jeffies and Blake available and I think Charlotte takes the cheaper
> Blake.  If Wash leaves Stack available Charlotte has to grab him -- and
> save money elsewhere.
>
> 8.  Jumaine Jones - 1.5 mil -- Like I said I think the C's leave Jones
> & LaFrentz available and protect Blount -- who surely would be taken.
> LaFrentz is too expensive given his injuries but Jones started for the
> Philly Finals team in 2001 and is a relatively cheap risk.
>
> 9.  Rodney Rogers - 3.0 mil (or Brian Scalabrine or Brandon Armstong)
> -- I see the NJ Nets protecting 6 locks (Kidd, Martin, Kittles,
> Jefferson, Collins) and then keep Kidd favorites Harris & Aaron
> Williams.  Rodney Rogers could be taken at 3.0 mil and a NC college
> connection (Wake Forest) or Charlotte could go cheaper (and less
> talented) with Brian Scalabrine or Brandon Armstrong (both less than
> 1.0 mil)
>
> 10. Mark Madsen - 1.3 mil -- Twolves will have 6 locks (Garnett,
> Cassell, Sprewell, Szczerbiak, Hudson, Ebi) then probably keep Ervin
> Johnson (their starting Center) and Olowokandi (still very tradeable
> contract if he doesn't pan out rest of the year).  That would leave
> Madsen at 1.3 mil as a good veteran/hustle guy for the Bobcats
>
> These 10 players would put them at 20 million.  There will be 5 minimum
> salary guys left (Willie Green (Phi), Roger Mason (Tor), James Jones
> (Ind), Jon Stefansson (Dal), Jason Kapono (Cle)) if they choose to only
> take 9 of the above 10.  Their roster would be:
>
> PG: Derek Fisher / Steve Blake
> SG: Anthony Peeler / ?? - Jumaine Jones
> SF: Corliss Williamson /  Jumaine Jones
> PF: Rodney Rogers / Mark Madsen
> C: Andrew DeClercq / Joel Pryzbilla
>
> Swift (who would become a UFA)
> 4 minimum guys (some of whom would be cut)
> #4 and #34 picks
>
>
> A few other possibilities -- if there are other minimum guys so
> Green/Kaponon don't need to be taken for cap reasons; these players
> would be taken in lieu of one of the above 10 to stay under the cap :
>
> 11. Ira Newble -- 2.5 mil -- Cleveland has 5 locks (Lebron, Boozer,
> Wagner, Diop, Ilgauskas), since they will probably try and resign Eric
> Williams Ira Newble is duplication though he may be protected over Tony
> Battie (and his 4.4 mil + creaky knees), Kevin Olie or Jeff McInnis
> will be one of the unprotected but both are more expensive, less
> talented than other PGs likely available, Kedrick Brown is backing up
> LeBron and is still on a rookie contract (cheap).  If Kedrick's
> unprotected his 1.7 mil contract and "(probably never-to-be-realized)
> potential" is attractive.
>
> 12. Derrick Coleman - 4.0 mil (or Marc Jackson, Greg Buckner) -- The
> Sixers too could go a lot of different ways leaving players like Snow,
> McKie, Big Dog or Thomas available, but it doesn't seem like their
> style.  I expect them to protect (Iverson, Snow, McKie, Dalembert, Big
> Dog, Thomas, Korver & Salmons).  If i'm wrong and they leave Snow or
> Kenny Thomas unprotected I think Charlotte takes them.  Otherwise
> Charlotte may take a gamble on Coleman as their Starting PF -- next to
> Swift at Center (or vice-versa)

>** --------- End Original Message ----------- **