Introducing the Charlotte Bobcats (including 2-3 former Celtics) -- Long

[Mark Piotrowski <markp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

When the suggestion was made that Ricky Davis not be protected in the  
Expansion Draft it got me to thinking about who the Celts *would*  
protect.  I think Davis will be protected and LaFrentz will be left  
unprotected -- and unpicked.

Keep in mind the rules of the draft:
(discussed at:  
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/charlotte/sports/basketball/nba/ 
charlotte_bobcats/6143689.htm )

- Each team protects 8 players, and can only lose 1 (FA's aren't  
included in the 8)
- Charlotte must take 14 players (and can take up to 29 theorhetically)
- Charlotte has a Cap of around $30 million (based on current  
projections)
- Teams can offer Charlotte a Pick + (up to $3 million) to take or not  
take a player

This last rule is new, and while the cause of much speculation (i.e.  
Boston could offer Charlotte Dallas' #1 pick & $3mil to take Baker's  
contract) I think the $30 mil salary cap that Charlotte has to squeeze  
under will mean it gets used maybe once by whatever team makes the best  
offer -- see below for who i think will/should.

I think the Celtics will protect:

Pierce / Welsch / Davis / Banks/ Perkins / Mihm / Hunter / Blount

Leaving the following unprotected:

LaFrentz / Baker (if he's not bought out) / McCarty / Stewart / Jones  
(who i think will be taken)

By looking over the other rosters (and spending way too much time on  
something this uselsess) I think there are 4 sure picks, then the  
possibility of Orlando making a blockbuster deal.  Here's who I think  
the Bobcats will pick (in order of "certainty"):

The 4 Locks:

1.  Stromile Swift - 4.5 mil (or Lorenzen Wright/Earl Watson) --  
Memphis has 6 "locks" (J. Williams, Posey, Miller, Gasol, Wells, &  
Battier) which means one of Swift/Wright/Watson will be exposed -- i  
think they'll protect Wright (their starting Center) and Dahntay Jones  
(or maybe Troy Bell both of whom are on Rookie Scale contracts).  That  
leaves either Swift or Watson -- i say the Bobcats take Swift;  however  
I just realized that (as per the Exp. Draft rules) as a Restricted FA,  
Swift would become a Unrestricted FA if he got picked -- they may still  
pick him to take advantage of his lost salary or go with Watson (1.3  
mil) or Wright (6.6 mil) if left unprotected.  Either way someone from  
Memphis is being picked

2.  Corliss Williamson - 5.0 mil (or Chucky Atkins or Elden Campbell)  
-- Detroit also has 6 locks (Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Wallace, Okur  
(you have to protect Retricted FA's or they can be taken), & Milicic)  
which means the last spots are for Atkins, Campbell or Williamson.   
Since they are trying to clear as much cap room to resign Okur and  
Corliss has the biggest contract, and because he's not a big part of  
Larry Brown's plans, I think they leave Williamson exposed.  If not,  
whoever of Atkins or Campbell gets exposed gets taken (at lower money)

3.  Derek Fisher - 3.0 mil (or Rick Fox) -- the Fakers have 7 locks  
(Shaq, Payton, Dev. George, Malone, Walton, Rush, Cook -- the last 3  
b/c they have small contracts and have played well in the absence of  
the 4 HoFamers).  I believe Kobe will either be a FA or in jail so they  
probably won't need to protect him.  That leaves one spot for Fox or  
Fisher.  I think they'll leave Fisher unprotected over Fox because of  
Payton's signing.  If not Fox goes back to his College stomping grounds  
as a veteran leader at 4.7 mil.

4.  Anthony Peeler - 1.0 mil (or Gerald Wallace, Doug Christie).  If  
i'm the kings this is easy -- you don't mess with success so you have 8  
locks (Webber, Bibby, Miller, Jackson, Stojakovic, Christie, Songalia,  
& G. Wallace).  Though they may decide to keep the veteran Peeler and  
leave Wallace open.  They could also decided to keep both Wallace and  
Peeler at low money and leave Christie available, but that's a big risk  
for a title-contending team.  If Christie's their at 6.9 mil, the  
Bobcats would have to think long and hard about passing him over.

Scenario #1 -- Orlando's Blockbuster
---------------------------------------

5.  Grant Hill 13 mil -- OK this is the team that I think will make the  
big push for Charlotte to take their Salay Crap problem -- in part b/c  
they have the most to offer.  Orlando has to realize they're sunk until  
the non-playing Grant Hill comes off the books, limiting them to adding  
average players like Juwan Howard and wasting McGrady's prime years.   
Getting rid of Hill's contract would let the Magic go hard after a free  
agent (and maybe even a mid-level exemption) this summer (Mehmet Okur,  
Stro Swift, Kenyon Martin, Rasheed Wallace, Keon Clark, even Kobe?).

They're on course for the #1 or #2 pick this year (but have a  
Washington pick coming in the future).  But the way the NBA draft is  
going a #1 pick won't pay off for 2-4 years.  If i'm them I work out to  
trade that Washington pick (only top 3 protected in 2006, unprotected  
2007) to someone like Boston or Pheonix (who have multiple #1's this  
year, but may not want 2 this year for various reasons (Suns don't need  
it and want the cap room for a Kobe push; do we really want/need 5  
rookies + 2nd year players?) for one of their #1's this year (to add a  
Jarvis Hayes type college player in the 10-15 range).

Orlando would then trade the #1 pick (& $3 million) to Charlotte so  
they'll take Hill.  It's a big risk for Charlotte, but realistically  
their window doesn't even begin to open for another 2-3 years.  The  
next 2-3 years should be for player development, stockpiling picks,  
young players, etc.  So even if Hill never steps on the court it hasn't  
hurt their development as a team.  They basically lose cap space for  
the #1 pick this year.  And there is still the chance Hill may come  
back -- and his attempts won't be as big a distraction to Charlotte as  
they are to Orlando; in fact they actually will help build interest in  
the team i think.  Also, Hill's Duke connection should help ticket  
sales and/or he could be groomed for a front office/ambassador job.   
The Bobcats can then gamble on a HS/foreign player with one of their 2  
top 4 picks and go for a more sure bet (like Okafor or Ben Gordon) with  
the other pick.  Okafor's the only player i'd keep the pick for if i'm  
Orlando -- HS Howard seems like a Kwame Brown/Tyson Chandler type  
project -- which the Magic don't have time to wait for.

If the Bobcats take Hill they will probably make the rest of their  
picks minimum salary guys and go with a lineup of:

PG: Derek Fisher / Steve Blake (see below)
SG: Anthony Peeler / Jason Kapono (min. salary)
SF: Corliss Williamson  / Jumaine Jones (see below)
PF: Rodney Rogers (see below) / Mark Madsen (see below)
C: Emeka Okafor (#1 pick)


Swift (who becomes a UFA)
Grant Hill (rehabbing)
4 other minimum salary players from expansion draft: (Willie Green  
(Phi), Roger Mason (Tor), James Jones (Ind), Jon Stefansson (Dal),)
#4 and #34 picks

Scenario #2 -- Orlando Can't/Won't Pull Off the Blockbuster
---------------------------------------------------------------

5.  If the Magic can't get Charlotte to bite they lose either DeClercq  
(2.5 mil) or Hunter as cheap, big men. The rest of the expansion draft  
could play out thusly:

6.  Joel Pryzbilla - 2.3 mil (or Daniel Santiago, Erick Strickland) --  
Bucks are harder to figure out.  They have 4 locks (Redd, D. Mason,  
Ford, Skinner), I can't see them not protecting Tim Thomas (though with  
a max contract they might and dare the Bobcats to take him), Joe Smith  
(who's playing well as a starting PF and makes 5.4 mil -- attractive  
enough for Char. to snap him up).  That leaves 2 spots for their  
3-headed young-cheap center trio: Dan Gadzuric, Daniel Santiago & Joel  
Pryzbilla.  While Pryzbilla may have the most talent, he's been hurt  
often (but is still cheap enough for the Bobcats to take him and the  
gamble).  If they leave Santiago or Gadz open i think they get taken.   
The wildcard is Erick Strickland.  I don't know what they do with him  
-- he is the backup PG at low money so they may leave Pryzbilla &  
Santiago unprotected.  But one of them is gone.

7.  Steve Blake - 400 k (or Stackhouse, Larry Hughes, Jared Jeffries)  
-- much like the teams above, I think Washington loses someone.  Their  
a lock to protect 6 players (Arenas, K. Brown, Dixon, Hayes, Haywood,  
E. Thomas).  I think they'll also protect Jeffries and Stackhouse, but  
they could take a gamble and leave Stack exposed so they can keep  
Hughes -- whose played well in Stack's absence.  At most they leave  
Jeffies and Blake available and I think Charlotte takes the cheaper  
Blake.  If Wash leaves Stack available Charlotte has to grab him -- and  
save money elsewhere.

8.  Jumaine Jones - 1.5 mil -- Like I said I think the C's leave Jones  
& LaFrentz available and protect Blount -- who surely would be taken.   
LaFrentz is too expensive given his injuries but Jones started for the  
Philly Finals team in 2001 and is a relatively cheap risk.

9.  Rodney Rogers - 3.0 mil (or Brian Scalabrine or Brandon Armstong)  
-- I see the NJ Nets protecting 6 locks (Kidd, Martin, Kittles,  
Jefferson, Collins) and then keep Kidd favorites Harris & Aaron  
Williams.  Rodney Rogers could be taken at 3.0 mil and a NC college  
connection (Wake Forest) or Charlotte could go cheaper (and less  
talented) with Brian Scalabrine or Brandon Armstrong (both less than  
1.0 mil)

10. Mark Madsen - 1.3 mil -- Twolves will have 6 locks (Garnett,  
Cassell, Sprewell, Szczerbiak, Hudson, Ebi) then probably keep Ervin  
Johnson (their starting Center) and Olowokandi (still very tradeable  
contract if he doesn't pan out rest of the year).  That would leave  
Madsen at 1.3 mil as a good veteran/hustle guy for the Bobcats

These 10 players would put them at 20 million.  There will be 5 minimum  
salary guys left (Willie Green (Phi), Roger Mason (Tor), James Jones  
(Ind), Jon Stefansson (Dal), Jason Kapono (Cle)) if they choose to only  
take 9 of the above 10.  Their roster would be:

PG: Derek Fisher / Steve Blake
SG: Anthony Peeler / ?? - Jumaine Jones
SF: Corliss Williamson /  Jumaine Jones
PF: Rodney Rogers / Mark Madsen
C: Andrew DeClercq / Joel Pryzbilla

Swift (who would become a UFA)
4 minimum guys (some of whom would be cut)
#4 and #34 picks


A few other possibilities -- if there are other minimum guys so  
Green/Kaponon don't need to be taken for cap reasons; these players  
would be taken in lieu of one of the above 10 to stay under the cap :

11. Ira Newble -- 2.5 mil -- Cleveland has 5 locks (Lebron, Boozer,  
Wagner, Diop, Ilgauskas), since they will probably try and resign Eric  
Williams Ira Newble is duplication though he may be protected over Tony  
Battie (and his 4.4 mil + creaky knees), Kevin Olie or Jeff McInnis  
will be one of the unprotected but both are more expensive, less  
talented than other PGs likely available, Kedrick Brown is backing up  
LeBron and is still on a rookie contract (cheap).  If Kedrick's  
unprotected his 1.7 mil contract and "(probably never-to-be-realized)  
potential" is attractive.

12. Derrick Coleman - 4.0 mil (or Marc Jackson, Greg Buckner) -- The  
Sixers too could go a lot of different ways leaving players like Snow,  
McKie, Big Dog or Thomas available, but it doesn't seem like their  
style.  I expect them to protect (Iverson, Snow, McKie, Dalembert, Big  
Dog, Thomas, Korver & Salmons).  If i'm wrong and they leave Snow or  
Kenny Thomas unprotected I think Charlotte takes them.  Otherwise  
Charlotte may take a gamble on Coleman as their Starting PF -- next to  
Swift at Center (or vice-versa)