OK, I've had a night to sleep on it, cool off, and compose myself. Here
are my Morning After Thoughts:
This trade isn't a disaster. It's just not that great. We built our
hopes up for guys like Brent Barry, Mo Taylor and Bostjan Nachbar (at
least I did) and we ended up with Chucky Atkins. Naturally, that's going
to lead to some disappointment.
But they did add an asset (the first-round pick) without giving up any
piece of the future of the team. I thought they could do more with the
Mills contract, but maybe teams were only willing to dump bad contracts,
and Ainge wasn't willing to take those back. Atkins' contract isn't
great, but it's only two more years, and Detroit is paying a big chunk
of it. It doesn't change the Celtics' cap situation. They weren't going
to be able to bid more than the mid-level exception for any free agents,
and they still can use that mid-level exception. So the contract really
isn't a factor.
Chucky Atkins. I don't know. Ainge clearly thinks Atkins is an upgrade
over Mike James. I think Mike James is terrible, and yesterday I said
James-Atkins is a wash. Maybe that's not true. I haven't seen enough of
Chucky to say for sure, but if he's better than Mike James, then that's
an improvement. Maybe it's a small improvement, but it's still an
improvement. And if he's not better than Mike James, then he's terrible.
I know his numbers this year aren't better, but he's playing a lot fewer
minutes. We'll see. I'm hoping he's better. Improved point guard play
can make a huge difference for this team. I thought Jiri did a nice job
at the point last night -- much better than James.
The draft pick. Obviously, late first-rounders are crapshoots. But I do
think Ainge, Mark P. and some others are right that the draft has
changed. There are opportunities for patient GMs to snag high-upside
players late in the draft. Young high schoolers and foreign players can
be had at that point. It takes time and patience, but those types of
players can have huge impacts. Another way to go is to nab a polished
senior who slides -- like a Josh Howard, Jamaal Tinsley or Carlos
Boozer. There will be players drafted late who make it. The key, as
always, is talent evaluation.
The Celtics also have, as Mark P. pointed out, some pieces to put
together for a major trade in the summer. Davis, Welsch, Banks and three
first-rounders could be good starting points if a Steve Francis, Kenyon
Martin or someone like that becomes available. And I'm becoming more and
more inclined to make a move with Pierce.
Speaking of Pierce ... I fell asleep after three quarters last night. He
was in the midst of yet another terrible game, while Davis, Welsch, Mihm
(who, by the way, appears to be in the big picture after all; that's
good news) and Banks kept the team in the game. Then I read the accounts
of the end of the game, and find out that Pierce basically butchered the
clock at the end of the game, shot too early and gave the Clips their
winning possession. I'm becoming exasperated with him. He DESPERATELY
needs a strong, disciplined, detail-oriented coach. Otherwise he does
whatever he pleases. He has become a ball-stopper on offense. It reaches
Pierce and he starts pounding in the floor or doing his rock-step
routine while everyone stands and watches. It has gotten to the point
that I feel like the team plays better when Welsch and Davis are in
there together. I'm not saying Pierce is the problem, but he hasn't been
part of the solution. He has gone in the tank more than anyone since
Obie bailed. I don't think he's a tough-minded guy.
Other game notes ... It was good to see Jiri play well. Whoever
suggested Jiri may have been feeling pressure to perform since Ricky
arrived may have been right. He seemed liberated at the start of the
game. ... Ricky had another strong game. He's much better than I
thought. He's not just a scorer. ... Mihm was rock solid. Blount, like
Pierce, has been in a funk since Obie left. Walter, too. It's like the
Obie disciples checked out when he left. Let's get Hunter in there and
see if they get motivated.
Mark
-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Piotrowski [mailto:markp@xxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, February 19, 2004 6:13 PM
To: Berry, Mark S; Celtics
Subject: my initial thoughts on the trade
On Feb 19, 2004, at 2:04 PM, Berry, Mark S wrote:
I think this sucks. They didn't even get the Milwaukee pick. Ainge
needs
to have a second deal set up to make this worthwhile. James/Atkins is
a
wash on the floor, but Atkins has a terrible contract for two more
seasons. A late first-rounder isn't worth that swap. And we lose the
Mills contract.
Look I'm not sold on this deal either -- i see it as moving around deck
chairs on the titanic (as the saying goes -- i don't think the C's are
in that bad of shape...) -- but really this is just moving spare parts
around. If someone had said 2 weeks ago would you trade Mike James for
a #1 pick would you have done it? I would have.
We all had high hopes for Mills contract fetching us something -- but
when you look at it, not many expiring contracts got traded (the
gugliotta trade had lux. tax implications). So maybe its a case of
wishful thinking on our part. I suppose the thinking could go that by
doing a lateral trade we've actually hurt ourselves b/c this trade
guarantees Okur stays with detroit (who will also probably resign James
-- he's certainly a Larry Brown type). But we need to worry about the
C's.
I think there are a few other things to keep in mind -- outside of the
fact that we really don't know how much (if anything) Ainge could have
gotten for Mills -- I assume he could have gotten more, but who knows.
1. Expansion Draft
yeah we added more salary, but the one silver lining here might be that
with a relatively small contract, its quite possible that Charlotte
grabs Atkins in the exp. draft, thus freeing him from our salary cap
and making this trade truly James for Detroit's #1.
If you look at what else is out there vs. their respective salaries,
Atkins looks to be at about the top end of available players
talent-wise who have non-insane contracts
(http://www.igtc.com/archives/celtics/2004/Jan/msg00597.html).
Maybe Derek Fisher is available at about the same money, and Howard
Eisley, Nick Van Exel, Moochie Norris at more money,.
If we protect:
1. Pierce
2. Welsch
3. Davis
4. Banks
5. Perkins
6. Hunter
7. Mihm (you have to protect Restricted FA's or they can be picked then
become UFA)
8. Blount (if he opts out then Jones or McCarty (hopefully the former))
Atkins
LaFrentz (though if Blount opts out maybe they protect Raef as a PR
move)
McCarty/Jones
Stewart
are then available. Stewart is too expensive given what he can do (the
Bobcats only have $30 million cap); McCarty is cheaper than Atkins, but
not by much and Atkins is at least arguably a starter (esp. for an
expansion team) -- whereas McCarty is only arguably at NBA player at
all.
1a. Carroll will be gone in 27 games. Ainge will undoubtedly hire a
coach who agrees with his offensive philosophy and who will put players
like Mihm, Banks, Davis, Welsch, et al., in a position to succeed.
2. The Picks
Even a Detroit #1 pick is ultimately more valuable (short, medium and
long term) to the Celtics than James was/would have been. As much as I
like him and what he's done here, were we really going to resign James
this summer? I doubt it -- i think he had played himself into a
multi-year deal for someone looking for a good 3rd guard (if we had a
real PG, I'd push for US to sign him as a Vinnie Johnson, Bobby Jackson
type 3rd guard -- but alas). Haven't we been talking all year about
needing a real PG?
While the Dallas and Detroit picks will be mid 20s, maybe part of the
problem is that we're (C's fans) still thinking/looking at picks as if
this were the Pitino/Obrien/Wallace regime -- they ROUTINELY messed up
draft picks (and then Obrien wouldn't play the rookies even when we got
them) so picks were almost uselesss. Hopefully that's changed. Look
at Wallace's draft record:
1999 - traded pick for vitaly
2000 - Picked Moiso (#11 a soph) over Jamal Magloire (who Pitino
coached at Kentucky, #19), Q. Richardson (#18 - just as much a gamble
as Moiso and had a much better rep coming out of DePaul), Desmond
Mason (#17), heck even Etan Thomas (#12) would have been better -- I'll
give them a pass on Turkoglu (who knew). Oh yeah and traded 2 #2s for
Josip Sesar -- who's not walking through that door....
2001 - JJ is a good pick still IMO (though Wallace messed it up by
trading him (#10 pick) and #23 next year for Rogers + Delk); Picked
Kedrick (#11) while Troy Murphy(14), Richard Jefferson (#13), Vlad
Radmanovic(#12) and Zach Randolph (#19) were still on the board -- sure
Zach was seen as a gamble, but he won a National champiionship, was he
any more a gamble than Kedrick?; Picked Forte over Tinsley (27),
Parker (28) and Hassell and Arenas (2nd round picks).
2002 - traded pick with JJ; Made a nice pick in Songaila (#50) then
messed that up by not signing him -- not that we needed a PF or
anything.
Wallace's talent was/is finding low cost free agents (see: Bruce Bowen,
Adrian Griffin, Erick Strickland), not drafting. I still believe that
the key to rebuilding a team is through the draft (which Ainge & Wyc
seem to be saying too).
The draft has radically changed with the influx of HS seniors, College
fresh + soph, and foriegn players, to the point where the late 1st
round picks and early 2nd round are more and more producing good
players -- Tinsley, Parker, Arenas, tayshaun Prince, John Salmons,
Carlos Boozer, etc. Sean G has pointed this out in his Draft History
post.
I think Ainge sees this. Of course its too early to tell, but unlike
Wallace his first draft seems OK. Instead of Banks you could maybe
argue Cabarkapa might be a better player sooner. Instead of Perkins
maybe Barbosa or Josh Howard, Luke Walton is a big stretch, but will be
a decent pro. But a big 7' at 27 is nowhere near the stretch a JUCO
kid is at #11 (with loads of talent still on the board).
If we come away from this draft with (1) a senior (a la Boozer, Prince,
Tinsley, Josh Howard, Walton, Songaila, Earl Watson) ready to
contribute next year (2) a college underclassman or foreign player
ready to contribute in maybe a smaller way (a la Jiri Welsch, John
Salmons, Barbosa,) and (3) a foriegn player to keep overseas a year or
two (a la Peja Stojakovic (origianly), Marko Jaric, Okur, Delfino,
etc.) -- thought this can backfire and become Ben Pepper or Sessar; it
should be viewed as a success.
Of course other teams realize this too and there are players to be had
nearer to the draft -- could we wrestle Gooden or Randolph away with 2
picks? Lets hope so.
3. Dumars & Isaiah --
Remember the easiest jump is from really bad to pretty good -- which is
what Isaiah is doing. Yes he's upgraded the talent and gotten rid of
some crap, and the Knicks are surging, but are they any closer to a
title than we are? I don't think so. Maybe a little, but Nazr
Mohammed is not going to be the starting Center on a NBA championship
team. Perkins might not be either, but he's got at least got a chance
to improve. And Tim Thomas is your starting PF? I. Thomas has
breathed life back into the Knicks but he's got a long way to go before
this Knicks team becomes anything but last year's version of the
Indiana Pacers (the ones we knocked out of the playoffs).
Dumars on the other hand, is starting to look like this generation's
Jerry West. He just continues to make great moves (including drafting
so well).
The key to all of this is buiilding value in our roster. With low
price, high production players like Welsch and Davis and 3 #1 picks,
Ainge should be in a very strong position this summer to add a true
talent (Steve Francis, Ray Allen, etc).
(the other) mark