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Offense vs. defense
Ainge goes West Coast with the Celtics
By Chad Ford
Danny Ainge has a plan. He's confident it will have the Celtics competing
for a championship in three years.
Jim O'Brien no longer has a job. He's confident Ainge's plan will
have the Celtics in the cellar for the next three years and wanted
to get out before the scent of losing tainted an otherwise
impressive risumi.
Both Ainge and O'Brien insisted after the coach's Tuesday resignation
that no one was in the wrong here.
Ainge's theory? The Celtics need an infusion of young, athletes who can
get the ball up and down the floor faster. Players like Ricky Davis and
rookie Marcus Banks embody what Ainge is looking for in a player.
They're explosive, can score on anyone and get out and run on every
occasion.
"I have a plan that's going to work," Ainge said after O'Brien
resigned. "I have a plan to build a team that is better
offensively than we've been, (and) that is good defensively.
But you have to have talent to win. You have to have character
and professionalism to win. That's my plan, to develop that.
And you have to have a coach who is the leader of that group.
And you have to have players on the team that are leaders.
That's all in the plan."
O'Brien's thesis? Every good team needs a strong defensive core.
A good offense feeds off a good defense and he expects his players
to excel on that end, before taking over offensively. O'Brien also
insists his players actually know how to play. His model player?
Eric Williams, Tony Battie and yes, Paul Pierce, who's turned into one
of the top defenders in the league under O'Brien's watch.
"I just have more of a defensive, grind-it-out philosophy,"
O'Brien said after he resigned. "The issue is that Danny didn't
necessarily share that view, nor should he have to. I prefer to
have guys who are ready to smack you in the mouth if you try
to bring the ball to the rim. I value guys like that. I have a real
strong opinion that that's the way it should be. Danny, basically,
wants guys who can score the ball, and that's fine. It's just not
a relationship that was made for the long run, that's all."
It's tough not to sympathize with O'Brien at the moment. Since the t
rade that shipped Williams and Battie to Cleveland for Davis and
Chris Mihm, the Celtics are 10-14 while the lowly Cavs are 12-10.
That spread doesn't seem significant until you consider that the Cavs
were 6-19 before the trade, while the Celtics were on a five-game
winning streak and at .500.
Their philosophies may have been incompatible, but according
to both Ainge and O'Brien one wasn't more "right" than the other.
Of course, we're not going to let that slide. Insider did a little
number crunching, broke down a few rosters and tried to get the
bottom of the defense vs. offense debate that has divided a team
and a much larger portion of the NBA.
DEFENSE RULES
O'Brien is right when he says defense usually rules the day.
The six stingiest defenses in the NBA all belong to playoff-bound
teams (Spurs, Rockets, Pacers, Pistons, Nets and Raptors).
Expand it out a little further, and 12 of the top 14 defensive
teams in the league look like locks for the playoffs this year.
The Heat (who are making a serious playoff push at the moment)
and
the Sixers are the only teams in the top 14 in fewest points
allowed
that are out of the playoffs at the moment. The same holds true
for
defensive field-goal percentage. Of the 16 teams holding their
opponents to under 44 percent shooting from the field, 13 are
playoff bound. The Hawks, Sixers and Cavs are the only
non-playoff
teams in that group.
There's no question defense matters, unless your offense is so
high-octane (read: Sacramento and Dallas) the team as a whole can
survive bad defensive nights. The Mavs and Kings are the only
teams
with winning records despite allowing opponents to shoot better
than .446 percent from the field.
That goes a long way toward explaining how the Cavs could dump
their
second-leading scorer (Davis), bring in two low-scoring defensive
specialists (Williams and Battie) and turn their season around.
"They have three guys [Kedrick Brown, Tony Battie and Eric
Williams] who have been in the playoffs, and they're
defensive-
minded," Wizards coach Eddie Jordan told the Cleveland Plain
Dealer. "Jeff McInnis is a more aggressive scoring point
guard,
and now they moved LeBron [James] to a wing. They're bigger,
tougher, added depth and (are) a better team since the
trade."
OFFENSE RULES
Of course, that's only half the story. Ainge wants the new and
supposedly improved Celtics to look like two teams at the bottom
of the defensive heap -- the Kings and Mavericks. Those two teams
happen to rank first and second in scoring and both have great
records at this junction in the season.
Expand it out a little bit, and six of the top 10 scoring teams in
the NBA (Kings, Mavericks, Lakers, Nuggets, Bucks and T-Wolves)
look like they're locks for the playoffs. The Grizzlies (No. 7)
and
Sonics (No. 4) also have a decent shot. Only the Clippers (No. 6)
and the Magic (No. 10) seem out of the playoff race right now.
Offensive field goal percentage also seems to play a role. Six of
the top seven field-goal percentage teams also are in the playoff
hunt. The Blazers are the only team in the top seven still lagging
behind.
CHARACTER MATTERS
The offense/defense debate wasn't the only thing bugging O'Brien.
It's also about what type of offensive players you put on the
floor.
Do they do anything besides score? Do they know how to score or do
they know how to win? There's a big difference. Just ask the Bulls.
One of O'Brien's biggest issues is having leaders, good locker
room
guys who motivate, inspire and know what it takes to win. Here is
where Ainge and other GMs get blinded by talent to the detriment of
team chemistry.
Davis is a great example. He's a capable defender, posts nice assist
numbers and can be tough when he wants to be. But he's never played
a single, significant minute on a winning team. Never. Davis knows
how to score, but does he know how to win? When you consider that
since the summer, Ainge has traded for a total of four Cavaliers who
played on the worst team in the league last season, it's not a huge
surprise the Celtics are struggling.
"The teams we had the last year or two knew how to win, and they
found a way to win," interim Celtics head coach John Carroll told
the Boston Globe. "And there was a reason that we won so many
close games. This is a new team and [it] has a whole new
makeup."
BRINGING SOME WEST COAST, EAST
While all that may be true, Ainge still insists his plan will work.
Why? Right now the Western Conference has lapped the East. They've
done it with athletic, multi-dimensional players who run the floor,
shoot the lights out and flat-out know how to put the ball in the
basket. It's no coincidence to Ainge that of the top 10 scoring
teams in the league, eight are in the Western Conference. There's
also no question that all eight (including the Sonics and Clippers)
would be legit playoff contenders in the East.
Ainge, who spent his last gig coaching the Suns, has a West Coast
bias. He likes the way they play. He knows there are only two teams
in the entire Western Conference with losing records against the
East. On the flip side, only three teams in the East have winning
records against the West. It should come as no surprise the Celtics
are one of them.
NEXT STEPS
Players like Pierce, Davis, Raef LaFrentz and Jiri Welsch are the
type of multi-dimensional players who thrive in the West. Ainge
has a young point guard in Banks who can push the ball at the
tempo
Ainge wants to play. Ainge has even discovered a center, Mark
Blount, who has put up some very West Coast numbers (14.4 ppg,
8.6 rpg in his last five) of late. Now what he needs is a big
break.
The Celtics' big hole is at the four. Vin Baker looks like he's done.
Sunday, the Boston Globe reported the team has been unable to
contact Baker. It's likely only a matter of time before Boston moves
to terminate his contract. If they can convince an arbitrator the
termination is legal, Ainge is looking at cap room, around $5
million, for the first time in forever. That's not enough to land a
young, athletic power forward in free agency, but it's a start.
Ainge also needs to convince Blount (who can opt of his contract)
that the Celtics are the place for him and needs to make sure
Pierce understands the plan and has the patience to see it
through.
"This team was in a situation where it could accomplish a
lot, but this wasn't a situation where it was going to get
any better," Ainge
--------------
"We have two first-round draft picks this year, we're going to get
Raef LaFrentz back, we'll have the mid-level exception to use, and
possibly even a second exception because of Chris Mills, whose
(approximate $6 million) salary will come off the books after this
year. I really believe that by the opening of training camp, we'll
be as good as we were last year."
Good but different. Ainge was OK with that. O'Brien wasn't. Both
can't be right. It remains to be seen whose vision proves more so.