Never too early for predictions!

[Mark Piotrowski <markp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

> DJessen33 wrote:
>
> My early picks
>
> 1) Nets - obviously the best by far

Agree, but you have to admit that they slipped a little from their 
first year w/ Kidd.  Don't know if it was complacency, the Kidd FA 
distraction, or what, but I wouldn't put NJ as a slam-dunk just yet, 
in fact they're still behind Detroit in my book.

If Zo plays 20 games, then out for a big stretch like in Miami I 
think that could be a big distraction and they (like the C's) have 
been relatively healthy of late, so may be due for Martin or Kidd 
missing a few.

> 2) Cs - they were the second best team last year although their record didn't
> show it (we have taken both Philly or Detroit if we had to play them in the
> playoffs). Adding Banks, uptempo some cheap but quality depth although with a
> skinnier Walker will help boost them. Still, Obie will be bound to 
> his Obieball
> and none of the depth or uptempo will matter.

I hope you're (and we all are) wrong about Obie sticking to Obieball. 
If DA can convince Obie to play Banks, Delk, Brown and Hunter healthy 
minutes DURING the season, I think we could seriously talk about 
making it to the finals.  I mean we've lost nothing from the last 2 
seasons (OK Rodney Rogers/KA) and have a bunch of possible additions 
(Banks, Brown playing some real minutes, Hunter (remember both Hunter 
and Banks are 4year seniors -- who have the best bet to contribute 
right away in today's NBA), a slimmed down & contractually motivated 
Walker, and even <gasp> Baker).

Its gonna be fun this year!

BTW -- I'm intrigued by the possiblity of adding Jumaine Jones.  I 
think he got lost in the shuffle in Cleveland but showed some great 
potential while he was with Philly.  A definite upgrade on Ewill and 
nice insurance if Kedrick doesn't pan out.

> 3) Detroit - Didn't add any help short term except if they sign Elden who
> will help a little. He is getting pretty old. Plus, I don't see how 
> adding Larry
> Brown is going to help the offense. Their continued defense will keep them in
> the 3 spot.

I think actually Detroit is as good as NJ for the regular season -- 
actually i'd put them 1, NJ 2, Bos 3.  The wild card is Larry Brown 
and how quickly they adapt to him -- you have to admit he's been a 
winner everywhere (only coach to get the Clips to the playoffs in the 
last like 15 yrs).

They were a game better than NJ last year even with Billups just 
getting comfortable for the first 1/2 the year,  missing Rebraca the 
last 1/2, and now Okur and Prince are legit starters b/c of their 
experience in the playoffs.  People are focussing too much on 
Milicic.  Even if they didn't add him, they've lost nothing from last 
year and are a season more cohesive.  Billups getting hurt in the 
playoffs was a big blow -- made them look a lot more ordinary than 
they had become w/ him healthy late in the season.

> 4) Philly - It is still early and I don't know who is going to be their 4 and
> 5. However, Salmons, AI and Dog will rack up a lot of points. I think they
> will really take off with their new found offensive freedom by the 
> departure of
> Larry Brown.

Actually I think barring any other trades they're set at all positions:

1 - Snow
2 - AI
3 - Big Dog
4 - Kenny Thomas
5 - Marc Jackson

Yeah I think they overpaid for KThomas, but at 6-7 he averaged an 
amazing 8.5 rebounds last year for PHI.  And Jackson (a Temple grad) 
looked rejuvinated in the playoffs last year with MIN.  Remember it 
was just a year or 2 ago that he was coming off a great rookie season 
in GS.  I think he fits in well with the Eastern Centers.  Philly 
will take a hit just b/c of all the changes but not a huge one; AI 
won't let them.

> 5) NO - These guys are solid but they just get older every year. They didn't
> do anything to improve but they still have enough talent to reach this
> position.

May slip a notch just b/c of the loss of Silas (and addition of 
Floyd).  Key as always in Baron Davis' & Mashburn's health.  And they 
lost Moiso!

Given NO's need for a backup PG and our sudden glut of them, how about a

Bremer/Eric Williams for George Lynch (Augmon & Bryce Drew to make $ work)

I'd much rather have Lynch starting than Williams -- in 10 less mins 
he scores 4 less points but is equal in Reb, Asst, Stl, Blks -- and 
his ability to play the 2 frees up some time for Kedrick, or start 
Kedrick and split Lynch behind him and Pierce.

NO gets a backup PG and backup SF should Masburn get hurt again.

> 5) Orlando - They haven't solved the point guard problem with Lue or Gaines
> over Armstrong. However, I will give them a small boost with the addition of
> Howard and with O'Grady taking it up another notch.

I think the thing that takes them up is having Gooden + Giricek for 
the whole season (though sounds like they'll lose Giricek who's 
looking for big $).  I'm guessing Howard's going to be forced to play 
center since Gooden was so unhappy at SF in Memphis.  I think they'll 
bump up to #4.  The loss of Armstrong will hurt I think in the locker 
room, he was the emotional leader.

> 7) Chicago - I hate doing this but they got enough quality veterans to blend
> with their rookies, especially with Chandler who really started to pick it up
> at the tail of the season.

I too hate to admit it but Chicago is back.  The point guard 
distraction is over (tragically) btween JayWIll and Crawford, Pippen 
pushes Marshall to the bench w/ a health Fizer, underated Hassell and 
Hinrich.  The core has been together for 2 years now.  If they don't 
finish 5-7 it's a major disappointment in my book.  Another team 
that's 2 deep at just about every pos.

1 - Crawford, Hinrich
2 - Rose, Hassell
3 - Pippen, Fizer
4 - Chandler, Marshall
5 - Curry, (well I said just about...)

> 8) Raptors - I think Bosh will help out but these guys need a new mix.

Toronto had 24 wins less than the Pacers last year. Bosh is a year or 
2 away (think Kwame Brown when he came into the L).  No way they're 
even close this year -- i think the Cavs may be better (and not b/c 
of LeBron, but b/c of Silas, Olie, Newble added to their flashy 
core).  Question is Carter's health (along with eveyrone else's).  I 
think they make a little jump this year, then a big one next.  I 
think a minor roster shakeup might be in order (like trading AWill or 
ADavis).  Something like A Williams + Mo Pete  = Jamal Tinsley + Al 
Harrington, it would need some tweaking but you get the point and 
might do both teams well.

> 8) Wizards - They lose Michael but gain Arenas. Maybe this is the year that
> KBrown takes off.

Wizards could sneak into the playoffs, and you're right that it 
hinges on Brown coming to play.  They have a nice lineup, but think 
they might still be a year away

1 - Arenas, (Armstrong?), Blake
2 - L. Hughes, Juan Dixon
3 - Stackhouse, Jarvis Hayes
4 - Brown, Etan Thomas
5 - Haywood, Laettner

In fact you could argue they have more collective talent than the C's 
but lack the heart and cohesiveness/togetherness.

> 8) Indy - I never saw what people liked about this team. They have no point
> guard, their shooting guard is obviously running on fumes and 
> reputation, their
> small forward is bordering on the edge of sanity (although I wish he was on
> the Cs) and they just lost their center. They got one big time 
> player in O'Neil
> who really doesn't have a go-to move.Why would that idiot Ford still love
> them? Ford may have the inside stuff but they don't make you a great 
> evaluator of
> teams....

Again, on the money.  I think the problem is Isaiah not defining 
their roles sharply enough.  I don't get why Tinsley has regressed. 
And basically with the money they saved from shipping out Mercer, 
they're going to use to sign R. Miller and avoid the LuxTax.  What a 
difference a year makes.

So I guess My early guesses are:

1. Detroit
2. New Jersey
3. Boston
4. Orlando
5. New Orleans
6. Philly
7. Chicago
8. Wizards -- just b/c I hope the Pacers stink.