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re: I wonder...



From: "hironaka@nomade.fr"<hironaka@nomade.fr>

...[E]ven in the case that
Kedrick were to blow up for 30 points and 16 boards
tonight (I wish), there still might be some naysayer (I'm
not singling anyone out) posting a few days later about
how he's upped his average to just 3.9 ppg through these
20 games, compared to so-and-so draftpick who is already
averaging 10 ppg on some sub-.350 team.
And that naysayer(s) would be correct. However, averages, while a great statistic, have, among their faults, a resistance to describing trends. That is, they are slow to "respond" to new trends. E.g. Kedrick Brown: let's say his minutes and performance continue as they have been for the last week or so. He will have started a trend last week, but the averages will only bear that out months down the road, when the utter lack of minutes and production early in the season will be "cancelled" out by the later success. Statistics are great, and add an element of evidence to talking about sports, but let's not forget each statistic's weaknesses, as well as their strengths.

The glaring negative stat for Kedrick has been from Bird
land (1-6) and freethrows (3-8). That's what is dragging
everyone's perception of him down.
That, and perhaps their own past impression of him, based on the lack of minutes and production. I think it was you, Joe, who said that Kedrick is making 66% of his outside shots in practice, but not in the actual games (obviously). That's a positive, I think (hear me out) because it means he's capable of hitting the shot under some pressure, and that he's learning that the games are much, much, much different than practice. Crazy as it sounds, I think every player has to do that at each level, from little league to high school to the pros, each time. It's like a quantum step for some of these leaps: JuCo to the pros, for instance.

What strikes me most about Brown, after the amazing athleticism (usually manifesting itself in the form of great hops of snag a rebound or a dunk), is his level-headedness on the court. Seems to be quite calm, cool, and collected despite his age. He got into it a little bit with Ray Allen in the last game, was willing to step up and confront Ray, but also had a little smile during the aftermath, maybe showing that it's all water on a duck's back, anyway. I don't know, but I just kind of liked it. Seemed poised to me for a kid of 22 or so. Grounded, even, to use a buzzword.

I'm not sure he'll be a 3-point specialist within this
year. Have you guys recently compared a college three to
a pro three? That extra two feet make a big difference in
the shot mechanics, between a soft jumper and a heave. I
can't fathom how Tony Delk can maintain perfect shot
mechanics from 27-feet-out. Walker too.
Well, Walker's mechanics are only "perfect" because they conform to how he always shoots. But hey, it works for him, just like Anthony Mason's free throw form. But you're right, Joe, the difference in threes is huge. In Obie's 3-centric offense, Kedrick spots up at the line a lot. Now, I know that the C's often want to clear out for Piercewalker to operate, but Kedrick's a good weak-side rebounder, and sometimes even he is too late for the bound because he's out in international waters. The three will come to Kedrick, I think, though. Maybe not this year, though.

Bird