RE: All-star madness

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Kestas is right about all of this, and he doesn't need a lot of stats to
back it up. Only the most ardent Antoine fans can argue that the guy doesn't
take too many 3-pointers. It's GLARINGLY obvious. Of course, it's never
going to change. Pierce takes too many 3-pointers also. The 3-point shot is
a weapon, but when you overuse it, you start to see diminishing returns
(except on the occasional red-hot kind of days). The more you shoot it, the
more your percentage goes down (because you're being less selective), the
fewer free throws you attempt (because you aren't attacking the basket), the
more shots you miss (and therefore more fast-break opportunities for your
opponent), etc., etc., etc....

If Antoine would limit himself to, say, three 3-point attempts a game, and
made those attempts the three best opportunities of each game, he would be
far, far more effective. He would still show that he's a threat from out
there, but at the same time his percentage almost certainly would go up and
his overall FG percentage would go up with increased post-up activity. Plus,
he'd get to the line more. It's not rocket science. And that's why I choke
when I hear seemingly knowledgeable basketball people talk about what a
"smart" player Antoine is. He can be, but he plays dumb most of the time.
It's obvious that he could be so much better, but he refuses to accept it.

Antoine is shooting more threes, rebounding less, collecting fewer assists
and shooting fewer free throws than ever before. And yet this team is built
and revolves around him. I was watching T.J. Ford last night, marveling at
what a great point guard he is (and I'm guessing it wasn't even one of his
best nights), but when I started to think about how great he would look in
Boston, I immediately thought "nope... he could never play with Antoine..."
Antoine is going to dominate the ball. He's going to want it 25 feet from
the basket. A guy like Ford-a real Jason Kidd type who infuses his team with
motion and energy-is going to be wasted in Boston because it will be made
clear to him quickly that we don't play that way. Antoine will never allow a
true point guard to run this team. Won't happen.

As long as Antoine is here, we're going to see gross rebounding
differentials, atrocious shooting percentages and point guards whose first
priority is to spot up for 3-pointers. It's a shame, because while Antoine
is a guy who wouldn't work with a real point guard, Pierce is a guy who
would flourish with one. Get the ball out of his hands and let someone else
create openings, creases and angles, and Pierce could be deadly with his
drive/post-up/mid-range and 3-point game. But he'll never get the chance
because it's Antoine's team. Antoine will play 40 mpg at power forward.
Period. Antoine will dominate the ball. Period. Antoine will shoot as many
3-pointers as he likes. Period. I mean, it's even bleeding over to the
all-star game. I'm supposed to work up some sort of indignation over Antoine
not playing much when all he did when he actually got on the floor was
launch threes and airballs? We're so used to a coach ignoring that type of
play that we don't recognize actual game coaching when we see it. (I can't
believe I said that about Isiah.)

I love Antoine's competitive spirit. I really do. But this team is limited
as long as he's the center of the universe. Yet that's the only way Antoine
will have it. He's uncoachable. Pitino tried, and we know what Antoine did
to him. O'Brien recognized the futility and handed the keys to the kingdom
to Antoine in hopes that in return Antoine would play defense. And he has.
But at too great a cost.

This team would be so great with the right move-imagine a Toine for Gasol
and bad contracts deal with Memphis. You'd have a long power forward in
Gasol, who scores with efficiency, rebounds and blocks shots; you'd have
Pierce who could take advantage of the double teams Gasol gets in the post;
and you'd finally be able to insert a real point guard into the offense
since you'd no longer have to plan around one player who wants to play power
forward on one end of the floor and point guard on the other.

Boy... that has been building up for a while. The fact that there's actually
a debate about the merits of Antoine, the power forward, hoisting 10
3-pointers a game while the Celtics continue to be the worst rebounding team
in the league just opened the floodgates for me. I don't see how anyone can
defend the wisdom of this. I don't.

I don't think Antoine is a bad player. He's very good. But I'm tired of
seeing this team wrapped around Antoine when it's so obvious how flawed that
foundation is. It drives me nuts. Antoine is a guy with the skills to make
other players better, but he doesn't. With Antoine, the whole isn't as good
as the sum of its parts. 

OK... I feel better. Flame away.

Mark



--- --- ---

--- You wrote:
Kestas, you are far more intelligent than this.  By this same reasoning, you
should be stating cases for free throw shooting also.  
--- end of quote ---

It's a good thing you mentioned free throws. Toine's FTA is also a career
low,
yet another of the many sequelae  of his three-pointer affliction. 

--- You wrote:
Just because someone shoots 100% in practice, does not mean it will happen
in a
game, does it?  Peja has had some terrible nights shooting the 3.  Should he
stop shooting them?  Toine has had some outstanding nights with the 3.
Should
he keep bombing away?  It all comes down to what is working that night.  
--- end of quote ---

That's the problem exactly! He doesn't know when to stop when it's not
working!
And given his long-range shooting proficiency, it isn't going to work on
more
nights than not.  That's why he has these 1 for 15, 4 for 25 "specials". 

Addressing your comment about practice and game shooting, someone reported
during the contest that Wesley Person  consistenly shoots 80-85% on threes
in
practice, which translates into nearly 50% in games. If you had seen Toine's
form in the contest, you'd have trouble believing he makes 50% in an empty
gym.
This contest is really good at revealing how good people's shooting form is,
and there's just no comparison between Toine and guys like Person and
Stojakovic. Toine is all over the place, typical of a lower-skill performer.
Highly skilled shooters have very little variance in their placement
accuracy -
the great majority of the balls are right around where they have to be for
the
ball to go in. 

--- You wrote:
I do not see any correlation between what a player does in the 3 point
shootout
and their performance in games unless they have a rack of balls which need
to
be shot rapid fire alongside them during those games.  Geez, Mason blew a
dunk. 
Maybe he should quit trying them.
--- end of quote ---

Cecil, you are far more intelligent than that. You may not see the
correlation
(if you close your eyes), but the fact is, a fairly strong positive
correlation 
(~0.50-0.57, depending on how you calculate it) exists between the
contestants'
3-pt % and how they did in the tournament.  
As for Mason blowing a dunk, the situation is a bit different, as I'm sure
you
know, but refuse to acknowledge. Given his average dunking efficiency
(something very close to 100% when he's not atttempting  contest-winning
dunks), I'm guessing he isn't going to blow more than one or two per season.

On the other hand, just looking at simple probability, a .346 shooter like
Antoine will most likely make about  8-9 out of 25 three-pointers.  I
believe
he made 6 in the contest (there was a 2-pointer in there, I think), so he
wasn't having a terrible shooting performance, just somewhat worse than his
expected average (according to the Poisson pdf,  if you care to know). A
shooter like Wesley Person can be expected to make about 12 out of 25 (and a
correspondingly higher number of the 2-balls), and is much less likely to
shoot
as badly as Antoine.  My point is, these poor shooting performances of Toine
are not a fluke, they're actually quite likely.  

But of course it's a bit more complicated than that. People like Person &
Stojakovic have to be guarded at the 3-point line, or they will almost
surely
burn you from there. Whereas teams are quite happy to let Toine shoot the 3,
because that's where he is least dangerous. Yet good shooters still shoot
the
long ball at a  high percentage despite the defenses' best efforts, while
Toine
can't do nearly as well even though the defenses are geared towards LETTING
him
shoot the 3.   

Anyway, I think I've sufficiently restated the case that Toine needs to be
far
more judicious with the 3 than he currently is, and that's without even
discussing all the other negative consequences of his love affair with the
long
ball. 
Kestas