RE: All-star madness

[Kestutis.Kveraga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (Kestutis Kveraga)]

--- You wrote:
Kestas, you are far more intelligent than this.  By this same reasoning, you
should be stating cases for free throw shooting also.  
--- end of quote ---

It's a good thing you mentioned free throws. Toine's FTA is also a career low,
yet another of the many sequelae  of his three-pointer affliction. 

--- You wrote:
Just because someone shoots 100% in practice, does not mean it will happen in a
game, does it?  Peja has had some terrible nights shooting the 3.  Should he
stop shooting them?  Toine has had some outstanding nights with the 3.  Should
he keep bombing away?  It all comes down to what is working that night.  
--- end of quote ---

That's the problem exactly! He doesn't know when to stop when it's not working!
And given his long-range shooting proficiency, it isn't going to work on more
nights than not.  That's why he has these 1 for 15, 4 for 25 "specials". 

Addressing your comment about practice and game shooting, someone reported
during the contest that Wesley Person  consistenly shoots 80-85% on threes in
practice, which translates into nearly 50% in games. If you had seen Toine's
form in the contest, you'd have trouble believing he makes 50% in an empty gym.
This contest is really good at revealing how good people's shooting form is,
and there's just no comparison between Toine and guys like Person and
Stojakovic. Toine is all over the place, typical of a lower-skill performer.
Highly skilled shooters have very little variance in their placement accuracy -
the great majority of the balls are right around where they have to be for the
ball to go in. 

--- You wrote:
I do not see any correlation between what a player does in the 3 point shootout
and their performance in games unless they have a rack of balls which need to
be shot rapid fire alongside them during those games.  Geez, Mason blew a dunk. 
Maybe he should quit trying them.
--- end of quote ---

Cecil, you are far more intelligent than that. You may not see the correlation
(if you close your eyes), but the fact is, a fairly strong positive correlation 
(~0.50-0.57, depending on how you calculate it) exists between the contestants'
3-pt % and how they did in the tournament.  
As for Mason blowing a dunk, the situation is a bit different, as I'm sure you
know, but refuse to acknowledge. Given his average dunking efficiency
(something very close to 100% when he's not atttempting  contest-winning
dunks), I'm guessing he isn't going to blow more than one or two per season. 
On the other hand, just looking at simple probability, a .346 shooter like
Antoine will most likely make about  8-9 out of 25 three-pointers.  I believe
he made 6 in the contest (there was a 2-pointer in there, I think), so he
wasn't having a terrible shooting performance, just somewhat worse than his
expected average (according to the Poisson pdf,  if you care to know). A
shooter like Wesley Person can be expected to make about 12 out of 25 (and a
correspondingly higher number of the 2-balls), and is much less likely to shoot
as badly as Antoine.  My point is, these poor shooting performances of Toine
are not a fluke, they're actually quite likely.  

But of course it's a bit more complicated than that. People like Person &
Stojakovic have to be guarded at the 3-point line, or they will almost surely
burn you from there. Whereas teams are quite happy to let Toine shoot the 3,
because that's where he is least dangerous. Yet good shooters still shoot the
long ball at a  high percentage despite the defenses' best efforts, while Toine
can't do nearly as well even though the defenses are geared towards LETTING him
shoot the 3.   

Anyway, I think I've sufficiently restated the case that Toine needs to be far
more judicious with the 3 than he currently is, and that's without even
discussing all the other negative consequences of his love affair with the long
ball. 
Kestas