re: Isiah Thomas fired

[Mark Piotrowski <markp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Mark B. wrote:

> But the Celtics didn't do anything significant in terms of trades or 
> free
> agency. They didn't change coaches. I just don't see any reason to 
> believe
> the outcome is going to be drastically different.

Mark, I think there is a natural tendency (I know I do it myself) to 
oversimplify the changes other teams have made (i.e. Detroit added 
Darko).   I think we focus too much on the additions of other teams 
trades/FA/coaches and do not look at THEIR question marks.

I think its easy to feel like "everyone is getting better but us".  But 
as you and other's have pointed out the East is pretty jumbled at the 
top -- the top 8 teams Detroit --> Orlando were seperated by only 8 
wins.

Fueling this feeling is that we know our own question marks all-to-well 
(isn't that what this list is for after all?):  Is Banks ready to run 
the show?  Is Walker slimmed down and will he cede control to Banks?  
Will OB let the first 2 happen?  Will we really run more?  Will Hunter 
and Jones get a real shot?  Will Kedrick finally break out?

But what of the other teams?  They all have questions too.  Here are 
some IMO (ranked in the order they finished last year):

Detroit (6 more wins than Celtics):  Adding Darko will make them better 
in the long-run, but I doubt that a 17-year old will have much impact 
on this season, especially since Detroit (unlike Cleveland/Lebron) 
doesn't NEED to throw him right in.  And Elden Campbell should nicely 
replace Cliff Robinson.  But the biggest question IMO is how will this 
team respond to Larry Brown?  A new coach bringing in a new system.  LB 
has always been a winner, but that doesn't guarantee the future.  And 
while Tayshaun Prince was great in the playoffs is he ready to bring it 
for the full season?  Can Bob Sura replace not only Jon Barry's 
numbers, but the heart he brought off the bench? Are Rebracca's heart 
problems behind him?  Does Wallace get any rebounding help this season. 
  I think Detroit -- more than NJ -- are again the favorites to finish 
#1 in the EC, but can they make it out of the playoffs?  I think 
anything short of the Finals are a disappointment.

[an aside about Joe Dumars:  Is he the next Jerry West or what?  
Amazing job of rebuilding the Pistons.  Yes he lucked out on getting 
Milicic -- and perhaps with Wallace (did he know how good he was?).  
But drafting Okur, Rebracca, Prince and Delphino, trading for Rip 
Hamilton and signing Billups both for reasonable money.  And it looks 
like they'll have a good chunk of money next summer for a decent FA.  
Wow.  I hope DA does 3/4th as well here.]

New Jersey (+5 wins):  Yes they added Mourning and yes he's been 
cleared to play but he was cleared to play 2 seasons ago and only 
played 1/2 the season.  Until he plays 70 games this season I'm 
skeptical.  Does his health become a Grant Hill-like distraction if say 
he plays 20 games, sits 15, plays 15...?  Besides Mourning the biggest 
question I have about the Nets is will they stay healthy as a team?  A 
big reason for the Lakers dropping off last year (besides Shaq's toe) 
was that they may have simply been tired (after 3 Finals appearances).  
The Nets have played in the last 2 Finals.  Add in the ECF and your 
looking at 8-10 more games a year than the other EC teams.  And Kidd, 
Jefferson and Martin are playing in the Olympic Qualifying games this 
summer.  Pierce was obviously a bit tired last season and Reggie Miller 
never really got over his injury from the World Games.  It wouldn't 
surprise me to see one of Kidd/Martin/Jefferson go down for a stretch 
of 20-30 games.  And are the problems between Kidd/Scott really 
over/never existed?  Does KMart really keep quiet about his contract 
all year?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Boston finishes ahead of NJ 
this season.

Indiana (+4 wins):  Getting rid of Isaiah was addition by subtraction, 
but this is a different team than when Larry first thought Carlisle 
should have taken over.  How do they respond to him?  The biggest 
question is Jermaine O'Neal.  He doesn't sound too happy.  From today's 
ESPN story:

"I don't know who I would have signed with, but I would not have signed 
back there. Bottom line," O'Neal said about the firing of Thomas...

  "Am I disappointed? Hell, yeah. I'm extremely disappointed for 
multiple reasons," O'Neal said. "I was told he would be here before I 
re-signed."...

  "To me, it's mind-blowing that we would do this, and do it 4-5 weeks 
before the season," O'Neal said. "I'm more hurt than anything."...

"Everybody's just extremely surprised. We were geared up to go at this 
real strong. Now we've got to retool, look at a new system," O'Neal 
said. "I mean, I don't know if we're really trying to win the 
championship this year."

Jayson Whitlock writes that Bird basically used Thomas to get ONeal 
resigned -- and that Carlisle will feature Croshere much more.  And 
didn't ONeal say certain folks (including Artest IIRC) had to go for 
him to resign?   O'Neal has also played basically 2 years straight w/o 
a break (World Games last summer, Olymp. Qual. this year) can he stay 
healthy the whole season?  Does Scott Pollard really replace Brad 
Miller (I don't think so)?  Does Artest keep it together for the whole 
season?  Who plays the 2 for Reggie Miller who is clearly on the 
downside of his career.

I'll disagree with Mark B. that Indiana got better than Boston this 
summer.  This Carlisle/Thomas thing could turn into a Denver-like 
player revolt led by their #1 star Oneal.

Philly (+4 wins):  Another team with a new coach -- albeit an in-house, 
Obie-like promotion for Randy Ayers.  While I think the Glenn Robinson 
trade was a good one, he doesn't bring much defense.  If you thought 
our PF/C combo was undersized, look at Philly's.  Their starting PF 
(Kenny Thomas) is as tall as their SF (Robinson).  Thomas was a nice 
pickup (a la Delk for us 2 seasons ago) but is he a legit starter?  His 
contract will strangle the 76ers for a few years (like Battie & 
Vitaly's did us).  And while Derrick Coleman took one for the team last 
year playing Center, he made it clear at the press conference 
announcing his resigning that he wasn't crazy about playing there all 
season this year, but are they gonna start Marc Jackson at C, Coleman 
at 4 and Thomas ($50 mil) off the bench?

I think Philly & Boston run neck-in-neck this year again.

New Orleans (+3 wins):  Paul Silas for Tim Floyd?  Uh.....I don't think 
N.O. got better on the bench.  Floyd will do for New Orleans what 
Isaiah did for Indiana.  Adding Darrell Armstrong is potentially a good 
move, but he's 35.  How much does he have left in the tank?  As always 
the question is can Baron Davis & Jamal Mashburn stay healthy the whole 
season?  Does the Maglorie contract situation get resolved?

Orlando (2 wins less than C's):  Orlando can add Juawon Howard and the 
rest of the Fab 5, but if McGrady's back injury continues does he 
become the next Vince Carter/Grant Hill?  I'm still not convinced that 
Orlando's 4/5 of Gooden/Howard is better than our Walker/Battie combo.  
McGrady and Pierce are a wash.  And who's gonna replace the 
sparkplugness that Darrrell Armstrong has provided for the last 10 
years?  And of course you have a "developing situation" with Grant 
Hill's desire to play.  Orlando may, repeat MAY, have pulled even with 
us.  but a step ahead?  No.

While we may not have added as much talent as the Jones', I guess I 
don't look at every other team as just improving.  They got better in 
some areas, have questions in others.  Consequently, here's how I see 
the East shaping up:

1.Detroit
2. Boston (this isn't sheer homerism -- i think a rested Pierce, shaped 
up Walker and jitterbug Banks = 50 wins)
3. New Jersey
4. Orlando
5. Philly
6. New Orleans
7. Chicago
8. Indiana/Washington