2-Guards and Swingmen- The Coming Season

[Tammo29@xxxxxxx]

Greetings from the Sahara Desert-uhhh- I mean Kansas City, which just feels 
like the Sahara.
Six straight days of 100+ degrees.  106 yesterday.  Officially we've gotten 
7/10ths of an inch of rain since July 1st, although where I live I haven't had 
anything to empty out of my rain gauge at all since June.  And just to make 
matters worse, this is the summer my cars air conditioner went out for good.  
Even the fan is useless, just blowing 100+ degree air in my face.  Blahhh.

With everything else going on around the country the draught and heat in the 
Midwest hasn't gotten much publicity, but if bread prices go through the roof 
in the next few months don't say I didn't warn you.

Here is a prognostication on how the NBA's swingmen will fair this coming 
season.
Remember, this is just one mans educated guess based on his own ratings 
system and the players performance within that system over the last three years.


August 18, 2003
2-Guards and Swingmen- The Coming Season 
Joe Schaller
    

Point guards can get by with ballhandling skills. Power positions can rely on 
rebounding and defense to survive. When it comes to 2-guards and swingmen 
scoring is of primary importance and exceptional athleticism is the vehicle for 
superior execution.


The '90's saw a void of 2-guard talent beyond Michael Jordan and Clyde 
Drexler. By '98 a new injection of young superstar talent was emerging with the 
likes of Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen and Allen Iverson followed by a new millennium 
featuring Tracy McGrady, Paul Pierce, Vince Carter and quasi-point Steve Francis. 
New stars continue to emerge with Ron Artest, Andrei Kirilenko and Michael 
Redd possessing the necessary ingredients. Kirilenko? Until he bulks up I 
consider him a swingman. The skys the limit for "Roadrunner".


Who's the Best?: Despite Kobe's career season it was Scatman McGrady's 
astronomical performance which elevated him to a near Jordanesque level, well 
deserving MVP consideration along with Duncan and Garnett. Scatman had my top NBA 
rating for Scoring and also rates high for Ballhandling and Disruptive Defense. 
Just imagine what he might do with a healthy back.

Let's compare the TPR progression of Tracy and Kobe:



Year__Tracy__Kobe

1997____---____76

1998____95_____91

1999____108____99

2000____113___146

2001____146___149

2002____146___136

2003____175___157

In rating 2-guards/swingmen my primary consideration is TPR, an indicator of 
productivity per minute played. Previous 3 years TPR are considered along with 
age and team change to obtain a projected TPR for the coming season.

TPR scale: 120+ superstar, 100+ allstar, 80+ starter, 65+ bench, 60 = min 
wage


2-guards/swingmen Projected TPR for '03-'04

Tracy McGrady, Orl__170
Kobe Bryant, LAL__150
Paul Pierce, Bos__138
Andrei Kirilenko, Uta__130
Ray Allen, Sea__124
Vince Carter, Tor__120
Allen Iverson, Phi__116
Kerry Kittles, NJ__114
Ron Artest, Ind__114
Michael Redd, Mil__114
Eddie Jones, Mia__110
Michael Finley, Dal__108
Doug Christie, Sac__104
Bonzi Wells, Por__104
Richard Jefferson, NJ__102
Jerry Stackhouse, Was__100
Wally Szczerbiak, Min__100
Manu Ginobili, SA__96
Rip Hamilton, Det__95
Ruben Patterson, Por__94
Corey Maggette, LAC__94
Shane Battier, Mem__94
Reggie Miller, Ind__92
Lamar Odom, LAC__92
Quentin Richardson, LAC__92
Caron Butler, Mia__92
Allan Houston, NY__90
Cuttino Mobley, Hou__90
Tayshaun Prince, Det__90
James Posey, Mem__88
Ricky Davis, Cle__88
Latrell Sprewell, NY__85
Jalen Rose, Chi__84
Hedo Turkoglu, SA__84
Desmond Mason, Mil__84
Stephen Jackson, --__84
Eric Piatkowski, Hou__82
Lucious Harris, --__82
David Wesley, NO__82
Mike Miller, Mem__82
Jason Richardson, GS__82
Adrian Griffin, --__80
Gerald Wallace, Sac__80
Wes Person, Mem__78
Greg Buckner, Phi__78
Dion Glover, --__78
Morris Peterson, Tor__78
Qyntel Woods, Por__78
Joe Johnson, Pho__76
Gordan Giricek, Orl__76
Voshon Lenard, --__75
Devean George, LAL__75
Shandon Anderson, NY__74
Mike Dunleavy, GS__73
DerMarr Johnson, --__72
Steve Smith, --__70
Chris Mills, Dal__70
Anthony Peeler, Sac__70
Bruce Bowen, SA__70
Eddie House, --__70
Walt Williams, --__68
Jim Jackson, --__68
Ira Newble, Cle__68
Ron Mercer, SA__60

Underrated 2-guard/swingmen Allstars
Andrei Kirilenko
Kerry Kittles
Michael Redd
Eddie Jones
Shane Battier

2-guard/swingman Performance Ratings (PR) for '02-'03


PR for Scoring
Tracy McGrady__228
Kobe Bryant__197
Ray Allen__179
Allan Houston__175
Michael Redd__169
Paul Pierce__166
Vince Carter__162
Rip Hamilton__161
Corey Maggette__149
Wally Szczerbiak__147
Allen Iverson__143
Jerry Stackhouse__143
Eric Piatkowski__142
Eddie Jones__137
Reggie Miller__132

PR for Ballhandling
Anthony Peeler__152
Doug Christie__149
Kerry Kittles__148
Reggie Miller__136
Adrian Griffin__127
Tracy McGrady__126
Lucious Harris__126
Eddie Jones__122
Ron Mercer__122
Wes Person__120

PR for Disruptive Defense
Andrei Kirilenko__193
Allen Iverson__155
Doug Christie__153
Ron Artest__145
Kobe Bryant__139
Kerry Kittles__136
Tracy McGrady__126
Shane Battier__126
Emu Ginobili__123
Stephen Jackson__121

PR for Rebounding

Quentin Richardson__82
Lamar Odom__78
Andrei Kirilenko__77
Desmond Mason__76
Jim Jackson__76
Adrian Griffin__76
Paul Pierce__75
Richard Jefferson__71
    
TAM