[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]
re: no love from DA
Remember, Orlando finished only two games behind the C's last season. They
now have Gooden and Giricek for a full season, and added Juwan Howard in the
offseason. They should be significantly better.
I guess this is the key to the discussion -- SHOULD.
I agree that having Gooden & Giricek for the entire season will help
and that having Howard on board does too but I guess we're
disagreeing with the degree to which it will. I guess my point was
that I was disagreeing with DA's implication that ORL had leapfrogged
Boston into the top 4 in the coference. Maybe JOINED us, but not
leapfrogged.
As much as we like to be gloom-and-doom around here (and i'm guilty
of it as much as most), objectively the C's didn't take a step back
-- so you have to say that all things being equal -- other teams have
to improve to catch us, since we did nothing to move backwards.
Here's the essential differences from last year's team:
1. We traded Bremer for Banks -- and I think it could be argued that
Banks is just as ready, if not more so, for the NBA than Bremer was
when he entered it last year. Because of Delk's injury, Bremer was
starting by January last year. Banks may start outright by
outplaying Delk, at the very least I'd be willing to make a small
wager that Banks' numbers through the beginning of the year are as
good or better than Bremers were.
2. Added Jumaine Jones as FA -- I know that he was traded for Bremer
but his production (which people have pointed out was nearly
identical to EWill's) is all additive since Bremers is replaced by
Banks'
3. Traded Hunter's contributions for Grant Long; James' for Bimbo Coles
4. Lost outright Sundov's contributions
So I guess I see the improvements ORL made as MAYBE bringing Orlando
even to us. I think there is a tendancy to overestimate the advances
teams make in based on their offseason moves (I know I do it). I did
an analyis last offseason about how the teams that took a big jump in
wins did it and just about every team did it by getting an injured
player back or a unit finally coming together whose core had been
together for a while (like the ECF version of the C's 2 years back).
http://www.igtc.com/archives/celtics/2001/Aug/msg00264.html
http://www.igtc.com/archives/celtics/2001/Jun/msg00113.html
Banks, as much
as I like him, remains a rookie point guard. He'll make some great plays,
but those guys tend to have plenty of ups and downs. It's a tough position
to jump into right away. Look at some of the high-profile guys from recent
drafts - Jay Williams, Baron Davis, Jamaal Crawford, Andre Miller - and most
of them struggled early before making a significant jump the following
season. And all of these guys were more highly regarded coming into the
league than Banks (not that that necessarily means anything).
Again I think you're right in saying Banks is a rookie point guard.
But his contributions should be judged with their improvement over
Bremer initially not judged say against Gilbert Arenas' season last
year. Doing so is like comparing apples and oranges. My point
wasn't that Banks will add 10 wins to the C's but replacing Bremer
with Banks does nothing to take us backwards and may very well
improve us because Banks does (or appears able to do) something
Bremer doesnt' -- get others easy baskets. so its not just the
individual improvement at the PG slot but how much easier the game
can and should be for marginal talents like Brown, McCarty, Blount,
etc., AS WELL AS stars like Pierce and Walker.
Of course easing the load on them during the season adds as many wins
as ORL having Gooden and Giricek the whole season.
As for Jones,
let's see how it shakes out. Obie likes to play about eight guys. Pierce,
Walker, Banks, Delk, James, Williams, Battie and Blount will play. You still
have Walter and Kedrick. Maybe you count Baker. Let's just see how the
minutes shake out.
I think Jones does 2 things: Adds legitimate insurance should
Pierce/Walker go down. Without him we're looking at starting McCarty
or Brown. Also pushes EWIll (and maybe Walker/Pierce a littel) for
playing time, which makes them better.
My point is this - I like what Ainge did in the draft. But as for improving
THIS season, I'm not sure. We all hope the style of play changes and results
in improvement, but how often does that really happen? I think it's far more
likely that the team regresses a little due to defensive slippage. They
slipped a little last season.
I think its far more likely we add a win or 2, and Orlando adds a win
or 2 and thus we stay 2-3 wins ahead of them and we're both 4-5 seeds.
(the other) Mark -- the P. one