Playoff Picture

[Mark Piotrowski <markp@edu15.coe.ufl.edu>]

Hey all,

on next season:  i see Boston fighting NY, Indiana (and maybe 
Washington w/ MJ) for the 7th and 8th playoff spot.  here's why:

a couple of things to keep in mind:

1.  Here's a quick breakdown of teams' improvement/fall-off last year 
in the NBA:

+7 or more wins	6 teams (Phi, Mil, LAC, Hou, Dal, Sac)
+3 to 6 wins	2 teams (Den, SA)
+2 to - 2 wins 	12 teams
-3 to -6 wins	4 teams (Cha, NJ, Atl, Minn)
-7 or more wins	5 teams (Ind, Det, Was, Port, LAL -- man i love 
typing that one)

i posted before an analysis of those six +7 win teams (and will 
repost after this; most teams didn't add a star, but finally came 
together as a team w/ existing players (Phi, MIl, Dal, Sac) or 
rebounded from injuries and horrible seasons (Hou & LAC).  The bottom 
5 either lost a key player/coach (Ind - Smits, Bird, Dale Davis; Det 
- Grant Hill) came back to earth (Port. & LAL) or just sucked (Was).

2.  there are still a lot of moves to be made (which makes all of 
this somewhat academic)

With those 2 things in mind, here's my thoughts on the upcoming 
season, based on last year's finishes (predicted wins in parentheses, 
followed by last year's win total), followed by a team-by-team 
explanation:

1. Toronto (54, 47)
2. Philly (53, 56)
3. Milwaukee (52, 52)
4. Orlando (50, 43)
5. Miami (48, 50)
6. Charlotte (48, 46)

New York (43, 48)
Indiana (43, 41)
Boston (42, 36)

Washington - w/ MJ (37, 19)
Cleveland (33, 30)
New Jersey (32, 26)
Atlanta (30,25)
Detroit (29, 32)
Washington - w/o MJ (19, 19)
Chicago (10, 15)

----------------

1.  Philly (56-26)
Add:  they will have Mutombo for the full season, added Matt Harpring 
and Jerome Moiso (ha, ha)
Lost:  Tyronne Hill & Jumaine Jones.  I was shocked by that trade -- 
i think Jones was on the verge of a breakout season.  And Hill was 
the starting PF.
Question/wildcard:  how will Geiger be as starting PF -- he seemed to 
come to life in the Playoffs?  Can they stay healthy the whole year? 
But remember they had the best record in the East even with all the 
injuries and the midseason trade.

Prediction:  Will win 2-3 less games (coming back to earth a little);  53 wins


2.  Milwaukee (52-30)
Add:  Greg Foster; experience -- going to the East Conf Finals
Lost:  Lindsey Hunter
Wildcard:  they are in the running for Anthony Mason which would 
change things dramatically.  Will the Cassell contract situation get 
ugly and hurt the team?

Prediction:  0 change ; 52 Wins


3.  Miami (50-32)
Add:  Mourning (remember they won 50 games and Zo only played 13 
games); Kendall Gill, Laphonso Ellis, Ernest Brown (isn't that Way of 
Ray's guy?)
Lost:  Bruce Bowen, Dan Majerle, Tim Hardaway, Anthony Mason
Wildcard:  What do they get for Mason?  Is Zo 100%?  Don't forget 
that E. Jones and B. Grant carried this team to 50 wins.  A lot of 
roster turnover is always hard to deal with, but Riley has brought in 
veterans with Gill and Ellis which will make things easier.  How will 
Anthony Carter handle the full-time PG job?

Prediction:  Miami is tough.  I just can't see a team adding Zo, L. 
Ellis and Kendal Gill as slipping too much.  Injuries could be a 
problem though (Zo, Ellis, E. Jones).  I say -2 wins.  48 wins


4.  New York (48-34)
Add:  Shandon Anderson, Howard Eisley, Cl. Weatherspoon; Mark Jax & 
Othella Harrington for a full season
Lost:  Glen Rice, Luc Longley
Quest/Wildcards:  top 7 bench players (anderson, eisley, spoon, LJ, 
Harrington, Charlie Ward, and old Friend Travis Knight) have all been 
starters, a few are not going to like coming off the bench.  A lot of 
new faces to blend -- if anyone can do it Van Gundy is the guy.  When 
does Anderson play?

Prediction:  5 less wins -- this roster is a mess, something is bound 
to go wrong, but Van Gundy will keep in from being catostrophic.  43 
wins


5.  Toronto (47-35)
Add:  Hakeem, Chris Childs and Jerome Williams for the full season; 
Antonio Davis gets to move back to PF; confidence from their playoff 
run.
Lost: Charles Oakley
Wildcard:  Does Hakeem replaces the veteran leadership lost with 
Oakley -- yes and in a more palitable way.  Can he play 80 games and 
will he accept being the 3rd option?

Prediction:  7 more wins -- I just love what Toronto has done this 
offseason.  I think injuries are the only thing that stops Tor from 
winning the east (which will be a 3 way race with Mil & Phi).  They 
will only get better in the next 3 years.  54 wins


6.  Charlotte (46-36)
Add:  Stacey Augmon & Matt Bullard
Lost: Eddie Robinson
Wildcard:  Derrick Coleman.  Enough said (yes i know i have advocated 
trading for him);

Prediction:  2 more wins -- I think the Hornets played about to their 
potential last year.  they'll be a bit better but i would be 
surprised to see a huge jump. 48 wins.


7.  Orlando (43-49)
Add:  Patrick Ewing, Horace Grant; Grant Hill
Lost:  Michael Doleac, John Amechi
Wildcard:  Ewing and Grant are on the downside of their career but 
all they need to do is replace the production of Doleac & Amechi, not 
reproduce their mid-90s numbers.  Can Ewing handle being 3rd or 4th 
option?  Can Hill return to his form?  Can he play PG?

Prediction:  7 more wins -- Hill is the key here.  If he returns even 
at 80-90% you're adding and All-NBAer to McGrady.  Hill playing the 
point allows Armstrong to go back to being the 6th man spark


8. Indiana (41-41)
Add:  Jamaal Tinsley
Lost: Zan Tabak
Wildcard:  Was the dropoff last year b/c of roster turnover only? or 
is Isaiah not a very good coach?  Does Jonathan Bender have a 
breakout year?  Has J. Oneal reached his potential?

Prediction:  2 more wins -- I don't see how they can get 
worse...unless Isaiah is in fact the problem.  Lets hope he is.  43 
wins


9.  Boston (36-46)
Add:  Joe Johnson, Joe Forte, Kendrick Brown
Lost: Bryant Stith, Jerome Moiso
Wildcard:  Lots of em.  First, The rookies.  Keep in mind Joe Johnson 
is the youngest of the 3.  Beware of comparisons to Paul Pierce -- 
who was a senior w/ a chip on his shoulder (for slipping to 10) when 
he came into the league.  Don't get me wrong i'm pumped about JJ and 
Forte & Brown, but they all have 2 years of college ball or less. 
Second, can Battie give us 10 pts., 10 reb, 2 blks EVERY NIGHT.  Is 
Blount and/or Palacio going to step it up?  Can Kenny give us 
something or is he our Derrick Coleman?

Prediction:  6 more wins -- maybe i'm being a homer, but i think a 
fully healthy, confident Pierce and an improved Antoine (remember 
he's been running with MJ and Tim Grover all summer) playing out from 
under Pitino plus the rookies who seem comfortable playing their role 
will mean playing just over .500;  42 wins


10.  Detroit (32-50)
Add:  Cliff Robinson, Rodney White; Corliss Williamson for full season
Loss: Joe Smith
Wildcard:  White was a college freshman last year.  Will Jerry 
Stackhouse's shot selection drive CRobb batty?

Prediction:  3 less wins -- Have they really upgraded their roster? 
Stack played as good as he can last year and CRobb ain't getting any 
younger.  White is 1-2 years away.  29 wins


11.  Cleveland (30-52)
Add:  Bryant Stith, Tyrone Hill, Michael Doleac, Jumaine Jones; John 
Lucas as coach
Lost: C. Weatherspoon, Matt Harpring, R. Traylor
Wildcard:  Ilgauskas' health.  i haven't heard anything.  Who will 
score 20 points a night?  I like the additions but where is the 
firepower?

Prediction:  3 more wins -- more if Ilgauskas can play 70 games at 
full strength, thats a big if.  33 wins


12.  New Jersey (26-56)
Add: Jason Kidd & Todd Maccullough;  Healthy Kerry Kittles, Van Horn 
and Martin,
Lost:  Stephon Marbury, Kendal Gill, Johnny Newman
Wildcard:  Kidd will make everyone bettter, but health is always a 
concern.  Is TMac really the answer at center (god, their C rotation 
is 28 feet of white guys:  Todd Macculloh, Chris Dudley, Jamie Feick, 
Jim McIlvaine)

Prediction: 6 more wins -- Kidd is a special player who just makes 
others better.  This is dependent on everyone staying healthy (to 
challenge the C's as some have said they'd have to win 10 more games 
and us 0 more -- Kidd is good, but not that good).  32 wins.


13.  Atlanta (25-57)
Add:  Shareef Abur-Rahim , Jacque Vaughn; Kukoc, Ratliff and Nazr for 
a full season
Lost:  Brevin Knight, Lorenzen Wright
Wildcard:  Everyone is penciling in Atlanta in the playoffs but 
they're a year off.  There is just too many new faces playing 
together for the first time to add more than 5 wins.

Prediction:  5 more wins.  30 wins


14.  Washington (19-63)
Add:  Kwame Brown, Brendan Haywood; Christian Laettner.  Maybe Michael Jordan
Lost:  Mitch Richmond, Michael SMith (who i wish the C's would sign)
Wildcard:  Obviously MJ.  Without him they suck.  Brown is 18 years 
old HS kid.  Even Garnett and Kobe didn't make a difference their 
first year -- is he that much better?  With MJ i still don't see them 
making the playoffs.  Assuming the Pacers and Celtics stay where they 
were last year the Wiz still have to win 22 more games to have 41 
wins.  Is the talent on this team anywhere near the talent of the 86 
bulls when MJ scored 63 points and still lost the playoff game to the 
C's?  No.  And MJ is 14 years older.  Does C. Alexander break out?

Prediction:  18 more wins with Jordan; 0 more without him.  37 wins or 19 wins.


15.  Chicago (15-67)
Add:  2 HS kids (Curry & Chandler), 2 15 year vets (Greg Anthony & 
Oakley), Eddie Robinson
Lost:  Elton Brand
Wildcard:  will Artest, Fizer and/or Mercer be traded before the season starts?

Prediction:  5 less wins -- I actually really like what the Bulls 
have done, i think it will pay off in 3-5 years, but the next 1-3 
will be brutal.  I predict they challenge the record for futility 
this year.  10 wins