Re: My picks

["hironaka@xxxxxxxxx"<hironaka@xxxxxxxxx>]

> ---------- Initial message -----------
> 
> From    : owner-celtics@igtc.com
> To      : Celtics@igtc.com
> Cc      : 
> Date    : Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:32:29 -0800 (PST)
> Subject : My picks
> 
> Here is my prediction:
> -51W, 31L
> -3 seed in east
> -beat NJ in ECF
> -lose to Kings in 6
> -I love the Vin Baker trade
> 
> Goggin
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Please put me at 51 wins also. Twenty games over .500

This is hardly scientific, but I subtracted 3 wins from 
last year, due to the health/injury situation relative to 
other teams. That seems to be what the Globe writers did 
too.

Then I added 5 wins for various other unscientific 
reasons. Two in fact (both easily ignorable if you don't 
want to read further). Its a bit long-winded.

1) The first thing is a look through the schedule. I 
didn't expect to reach this conclusion, but despite all 
the improvements you may see out there, the overall 
number of teams that have the matchups to defeat us has 
decreased from past seasons. 

Regardless of how much positive thinking I applied, I 
used to dread certain unfavorable matchups like 
Milwaukee, Minnesota, Detroit, Utah, Van Gundy's Knicks, 
Bird's Indiana, Philly, even Miami etc. 

It wasn't a matter of won-loss record- those teams just 
always had our number. It was infuriating. 

Some held winning streaks against us that we only finally 
broke last year, one by one. 

Others showed they could whup us even short-handed or by 
overcoming big games from our captains, due to better 
coaching (when Pitino was here) and veteran instincts by 
their franchise players when it counted.

Look again at those teams now. Read 'em and weep. Not 
only will they not sweep us, we might even sweep them.

At last, I can count teams I fear on one hand: Spurs, 
Mavs, Kings and (until proven otherwise) the showtime 
Nets. Portland's also been able to obliterate Boston in 
the past, if they pass the ball, which they might again 
do this year.  

I readily admit that Boston will have trouble with these 
teams, or any team that learns to play like them. 

But in the end we're not talking about that many 
scheduled games here, even in the playoff rounds. 

If we conservatively win just half of our home games 
against those teams, we'll have a great regular season 
win total.

While other teams have improved, our matchups are frankly 
excellent and lately the results speak for themselves. 

For a number of reasons, the rest of the league's teams 
now have as much to fear from our matchups as we have 
with theirs.

---

2) My second reason for 51 wins is that team chemistry 
and leadership look as great as we've seen in years. They 
look almost ideally good. This is not just some fluffy 
theoretical concept.