Baker trade

[Alexander Wang <awang@xxxxxxx>]

This is a really huge trade with potentially big upside and potentially big 
downside.

Quick statistical analysis of Vin Baker. I looked at his NBA.com player 
file and
found an interesting split:

As a starter:
41 games, 33.8 mpg, 16.3 ppg (48.7% FG), 6.8 rpg (3.3 offensive)

As a reserve:
14 games, 23.1 mpg, 7.6 ppg (47.4% FG), 5.1 rpg (2.4 offensive)

Evidently he started for the first four months of the season, got injured, 
and was
used as a reserve for the remainder of the season when he returned. During that
first half of the season, he was one of three big scorers for the Sonics 
(along with
Payton and Rashard Lewis). After he came back, it looks like Brent Barry 
took over
the role of third scorer.

So it looks like Baker can still put the ball in the basket. One of the 
Seattle papers
mentioned that he averaged 19 ppg against Eastern Conference teams, which are
notably deficient in power forward/center talent.

On the financial side: The deal evidently lowers our payroll for this year, 
which may
have been a partial motivating factor - it may get us below the tax 
threshold for
this one year, saving some undetermined amount of money that might be as much
as $10-15M. Or maybe it even lets us spend some money to retain Rogers say,
or go after a point guard this year.

Next year is when it starts hurting financially, because that's when 
Kenny's salary
would have come off the books which would have allowed the acqusition
of a free agent via the midlevel exception. I think the Forte for Shammond 
Williams
throw-in was for that reason; Williams' contract expires after this season 
and my guess
is he won't be retained for financial reasons, so a side aspect of this 
deal was
dumping Forte's contract. Sigh. But it looks like we'll be right against 
the tax threshold
again next year now.

On to the point guard spot. With Anderson and Forte gone, we have Delk, S. 
Williams,
Bremer... not exactly inspiring. For the frontline, I would say Baker and 
Walker start
at C/PF, with Battie backing up both of them.

I think there's an opportunity here though, with two premier point guards 
looking like
they might be traded: Baron Davis and Andre Miller. Maybe you can get one 
of them
with a combination of lesser assets (Battie, Kedrick, future #1) but I 
think it's
unlikely, plus, when you sign them to a max extension, you run into luxury 
tax problems
again. More likely is something like Antoine for Davis or Miller and an 
expiring contract.
Then your lineup looks like Battie, Baker, Pierce, Brown, Davis/Miller... 
seems rebounding
deficient, but maybe more balanced and synergistic than what we currently have.

Alex