Re: Antoine (was Re: Johnson Touted As Rookie With The Most Impact)

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

At 01:42 PM 9/26/01, Berry, Mark  S wrote:
>That's where I am with Antoine. He is what he is. He's entering his sixth
>season and his field goal percentage is falling into truly abysmal
>territory-41 percent. He leads the league in 3-point attempts and misses but
>isn't in the top 50 in percentage. Meanwhile, his free throw attempts and
>rebounding numbers continue to decline. His turnovers are consistently bad.
...
>But stop blaming everyone else for his shortcomings. There are plenty of
>players in similar situations-bad teams (and teammates)-who manage to
>operate much more efficiently than Antoine. Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Antawn
>Jamison, Antonio McDyess, Kevin Garnett, Elton Brand, Vince Carter, Lamar
>Odom, Tracy McGrady, Steve Francis and Paul Pierce all operate under very
>similar circumstances (Pierce under identical circumstances) yet they all
>manage to make at least 45 percent of their shots.

I look around this list myself and wonder where all the "Walker apologists" 
who don't watch the games are. I don't recall anyone saying "Walker should 
be all-NBA." Mostly it seems that some people, including myself, disagree 
with the notion that Walker is the primary reason that this team loses, 
that it would be "addition by subtraction" to get rid of him, that he's a 
ballhogging "melonhead." I believe that Walker can certainly play better, 
but that applies to just about everyone on this team. And he's certainly 
not the most glaring weakness.

First of all, let's at least be accurate and separate the 41% figure into 
2pt and 3pt percentages. You simply can't lump them together and say, 41% 
is 41%, regardless of how many 3 pointers he takes. Now his 2 pt FG% is 
still low, 43% if I recall correctly, and that can certainly be criticized. 
He just hasn't been an efficient scorer throughout his career from inside, 
except for one year where he converted 47%.

On the 3 pointer, I think it was Peter May that originally brought up the 
"shoots the most but isn't in top 50 %" criticism. Honestly, I don't think 
this is really valid. First, there's generally an inverse relationship 
between volume and percentage (Kestas mentioned an inverted U which I think 
is probably right, but this is at the right end of that). Second, I think 
this top 50 is chosen right at a point to exclude Antoine, who at 36.7% 
just misses the top 50 cutoff of 37.4%. What's so magical about the top 50? 
Really, if you are converting more than the league average or more 
importantly, if you're getting more points this way than your team would 
get otherwise, then you're helping. This second criterion is impossible to 
quantify but the basic idea is, if you're shooting a good percentage, then 
you want to do this more rather than less, and 36.7% is a good percentage, 
regardless of whether it's in the top 50. Remember that a lot of these top 
50 players are role players who get to sit around and pick their spots 
because they're playing with more talented teammates who get them open 
looks or bail them out when the shot clock is running out too.

Even with all this, if Antoine's redeeming factor was two seasons of good 
three point shooting (along with three poor ones, I'd say that is a pretty 
poor player in general. I think you're a bit too quick to disregard his 
rebounding (because he plays so many minutes) and assists (because he 
dominates the ball). You could find a power forward that gives you the 
rebounding instead. You could find a point guard that gives you the assists 
instead. And you might be able to find a scorer that shoots a higher 
percentage (actually, 20 ppg scorers are not that easy to find, even if 
they only shoot 43% - there's only 24 in the league). But getting them in 
one package is definitely an undervalued asset. Guys you mention such as 
Brand, Jamison, and Shareef have somehow not managed to lead their teams to 
the 36 win level that Antoine managed to do in Pitino's first year with 
very little help. 36 wins is nothing to write home about but these 
offensively superior players haven't managed it either.

Anyway, Antoine's not on a level with the true stars in the game, and he 
may never be. I'm hoping that getting in shape is his first step towards 
that level. Like Noah, I can't blame him for many of the things he gets 
blasted for, because the supporting cast last year really was offensively 
pathetic. But I think for me, this is the year he has to really show 
improvement or, like Mark, I may give up on him, the way I soured on Mercer 
during his second year. Because he's supposedly coming into camp in great 
shape, he should have a better supporting cast with Johnson and several 
players returning from injury, he's got the coach that he evidently wanted, 
he hasn't had to deal with the offseason rumors of trades that supposedly 
upset him. I don't agree with all his 3 pointers especially if he's 
surrounded by better offensive talent; I think his defense needs serious 
improvement; and I think he can do significantly better than 43% inside, 
especially if someone else can get him the ball in good position.

Alex